There are six home underdogs in Week 12 action of the 2023 NFL season. Based on the season-long trends, they should be strongly considered. 

In a season full of upsets and surprises, home dogs have been one of the few trends that would be paying off. They’re covering 55% of games (a profit in sports betting, based on -110 NFL odds, is hitting on 52.4% of picks). 

While home-field advantage has been diminished by many sportsbooks of late, home teams are still faring better overall and against the spread. They’re winning a solid 57.3% of the time (94-70) and covering 52.5%, compared to 47.5% for the roadside. 

For all their issues, the Tennessee Titans have been the best home-dog team to back, covering in all three instances by an average of 13.2 ppg. The Houston Texans are 2-0 ATS as a home dog, easily covering by 18 ppg. Houston is a home dog this week against the Jaguars. 

The Los Angeles Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Jacksonville Jaguars are each 0-2 ATS as home dogs. The Chargers (+3.5) aim to snap the streak when they host the AFC-leading Baltimore Ravens. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson has his finger on the pulse of the NFL. Thompson has hit on over 62% of his NFL best bets in each of the last three years. 

Here are his two parlays for Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season:

Best Parlays For NFL Week 12

Odds are current as of publication but subject to change. For the most updated NFL odds, please check the betting apps.

The “Pre-Weekend Appetizer” Parlay

Leg 1: Cowboys -11 over Commanders 

The Cowboys have covered the spread just one time in their last 12 Thanksgiving games. That’s bad, but the Commanders are on a slippery slope to annihilation, starting last week when a rout at the hands of Tommy DeVito and the Giants. The Cowboys rank No. 1 in the NFL in scoring at home (40 ppg) and No. 2 in points allowed at home (12.5). They’ve won every game at AT&T by at least 20 points, and should do so again here. 

Leg 2: 49ers -6.5 over Seahawks 

A banged-up Geno Smith – in front of a porous offensive line and without his bellow running back – is in for a tough evening against one of the premier and aggressive defenses out there. Meanwhile, the Niners is back to elite status with Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel on the field. Snag the line at -6.5. 

Leg 3: Dolphins -10 over Jets 

Miami has managed 20 points or less in three of the last four games, offering hope for a Jets team that’s rattled Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts of late. But Tim Boyle is not set up for success here. Miami can stop the run and it’s unlikely the Jets will throw with success. Miami may not score 40, but the Jets may not get past 13. 

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The “Sunday Smorgasbord” Parlay

Leg 1: Falcons PK over Saints 

New Orleans will be without WR Michael Thomas and CB Marshon Lattimore, and the QB situation might be game-time. That sets up well for the Falcons, as is playing at home, where they’re averaging 7.8 ppg more than on the road. New Orleans’ issues at slowing the run, especially on the road, allow the Falcons to do what they do best. 

Leg 2: Jaguars-Texans Over 47.5 Points

Both teams can throw the ball and neither team is great at stopping it. Houston poured 37 at J’ville earlier this year, and he’s more locked in now than he was back in Week 3. The Texans have scored 3plus in two of their last three, the Jaguars in three of five. Chances are at least one team hits that mark again here, and the other isn’t far off. 

Leg 3: Patriots ML over Giants 

Backing New England against anyone sounds crazy, especially on the road against a team coming off an impressive win. But I’ll still back Bill Belichick against Tommy DeVito. New York’s run defense is shoddy at best, which suits what the Pats will want to do here. The Giants scored 31 last week but prior that hadn’t gone over 17 since Week 2. This has the feels of a 17-13 bore fest. 

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