Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 11: Dancing to the Bank?
Carl Carchia | 7 mins
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This NFL betting season has been historic, whether it feels like it or not. Many NFL games are coin flips and that's why we love the league, but this year things have been taken to another level. Let's have a look, straight from the NFL's PR team:
There have been 116 games decided by one score (8 points), the most through 10 weeks in NFL history. The average margin of victory is only 9.29 points, which is the lowest since 1932 (9.13).
Those numbers are why I prefer teasers. Let me clarify: I prefer "Wong" teasers, which are two-team, 6-point teasers that cross the key numbers of 3 and 7 (more on that later).
RELATED: NFL Week 10 Picks, Predictions and Best Bets
You can tease up to six sides at DraftKings, though we don’t advise straying from two-team teasers, despite how tempting it might be (3-team teasers pay out at +160). We also don't advice teasing NFL over/unders. There's no value in teasing NFL totals. There is too much variance with those markets for a specific key number to emerge.
As far as totals, there is something to look for when it comes to aiding your teaser handicapping process: Low totals are games you want to target (we advise looking for totals in the low-to-mid 40s). Those games have less of a chance of getting out of hand.
Now that we have that out of the way, let’s get to my best NFL Week 10 teaser bets to back on sports betting apps.
YTD Record: 6-5; Another three-week winning streak has us above .500 after the Seahawks and Broncos came through.
Best Week 11 NFL Teaser Bets
- Bills (-1.5) Over Browns
- Vikings (+7.5) Over Cowboys
Best NFL Week 11 Teaser Bet: -120 at Caesars Sportsbook ➜
New users can make this teaser bet and get up to $1,250 back if it loses with the Caesars Sportsbook promo code BOOKIESFULL.
Bills (-1.5) Over Browns
Let’s no overcomplicate this. The Bills have lost two straight - one in very fluky fashion - and now face the second-worst scoring defense in the NFL (26.4 ppg).
Cleveland wants to run the ball with Nick Chubb, the league’s third-leading rusher. However, the Bills rank 7th against the run. Part of that is the fact that they jump out to huge leads and teams are forced to abandon the run (24.4 rush attempts per game vs. Buffalo is T-6th fewest in the NFL).
That’s what will happen here. Make the Bills one of your best NFL teaser bets for Week 11 on sports betting apps.
Vikings (+7.5) Over Cowboys
I get why a ton of professionals are betting the Cowboys here at -1.5. It makes sense. The Vikings are coming off their biggest win of the season, which has validated their 8-1 start in the eyes of some (i.e. the public).
Meanwhile, the Cowboys are coming off a terrible collapse: They lost when leading by 14+ points in the fourth quarter for the first time in 195 regular season + postseason games. The Cowboys are the better team thanks to the league’s 5th-best scoring defense and a unit that leads the league in sacks (35).
Still, 7.5 points is too much here considering Justin Jefferson could torment the Cowboys' secondary much worse than Christian Watson did last week. Make the Vikings one of your best NFL teaser bets for Week 11 online sportsbooks.
Other Best Teaser Legs For Week 11
- Rams (+8.5) Over Saints
- Bears (+8.5) Over Falcons
- Raiders (+8.5) Over Broncos
- 49ers (-2.5) Over Cardinals
Best NFL Week 10 Teaser Bets: -120 at Caesars Sportsbook ➜
New users can use the Caesars promo code BOOKIESFULL and bet any of these teaser legs. If your bet loses, you'll get that amount back (up to $1,250 in free bets), plus 1,000 Tier Credits and 1,000 Reward Credits. Or new users can bet them with a No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000 at FanDuel. ➜
How Do Wong Teasers Work?
Teasers are a way to level the playing field a bit if you pick the right spots. Here’s why: There are key numbers in NFL betting that every bettor needs to know. They are 3 and 7. Those are the most common margins of victory in NFL games – shocking right?
So what is a teaser bet? A teaser is a bet of at least two teams that allows you to “buy” points on each leg to create a more favorable spread. As with parlays, all legs of a teaser must cover for the bet to cash.
The NFL odds of a teaser are based on how many teams you combine and how many points you’re buying.
The proven way to profitability when betting the NFL is through two-team, six-point teasers, which are known as “Wong” teasers. Gambling author "Stanford Wong" (real name John Ferguson) wrote about this strategy providing positive expected value (EV+) in his 2001 book, Sharp Sports Betting.
The end game of Wong teasers is to cross the key numbers of 3 and 7, thus giving yourself a mathematical advantage in the long haul. They work like this: You should tease a home favorite of -7.5 down 6 points to -1.5 points (crossing 7 and 3) and tease an underdog (mostly road 'dogs) of +2.5 to +8.5 (again, crossing 3 and 7).
Of course, you can also create a 7-point teaser (if the line on the favorite is -9.5, to cross through 3), but you're going to pay more "juice." Lines of 9.5 are actually becoming more common as sportsbooks try to protect themselves against Wong teasers.
Wong teasers provide value because you're moving the spread significantly, through key numbers, and you're only paying slightly more "juice" than an average NFL moneyline (-120 vs. -110). And this year, teasers are more valuable than ever.