Buffalo is favored by nine points on the road on betting apps. The Lions have won three straight thanks to seven takeaways by the defense. But they’ve been out-gained by more than 100 yards per contest and statistically still have the NFL’s most-porous defense. The Bills are showing cracks after being anointed in September, but they are 4-0 vs. teams currently under .500 with an average margin of victory of 18.5 points. 

Teams are competing with the Bills by passing on them, but Detroit has found success by avoiding the pass – exactly 26 attempts in all three wins vs. 35.6 in the first seven games. It’s less likely to work against a defense that’s been great vs. the run. Detroit has lost five straight on Thanksgiving, three of which were vs. the Bears, and one vs. the Texans. Lay the points on a big Buffalo bounceback. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Over 75.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

St. Brown has become a go-to target lately for Jared Goff, registering 8-11 targets in each of the last four games. He had 9-12 in the opening three weeks as well. Through nine games, he’s gone over 76 yards only twice. That said, the Bills defense, while it ranks No. 8 vs. the pass, has allowed someone to gain at least 83 yards six times in the last six games. 

If Detroit falls behind quickly, as expected, that means more passes for Goff, and more targets, catches and yards for St. Brown. 

Dallas has won 10 of the last 11 meetings between these NFC East rivals. Daniel Jones is 0-6 vs. the Cowboys, though three of the last four were by a TD or less. The spread on NFL betting sites (nine points as of publish) is about where it should be, but the Over/Under of 44.5 points is low. 

The Over has hit just three times in 10 Giants games, though one of them was the Week 3 meeting between these teams. The over is on a 5-2-1 run in Giants vs. Cowboys games. Dallas games have become the must-watch games of Thanksgiving. The last 10 years, their games have averaged 52.6 in total points. Look for another Over here. 

Daniel Jones, Under 190.5 Pass Yards

Odds: -114 at FanDuel

Jones torched the Lions for 341 yards last week in a loss, but that was the Lions. No other game had he thrown for more than 217 yards. In the other nine games, Jones averaged 177 ypg. 

Now he faces the Cowboys, who have allowed fewer pass yards than any other team. The Giants’ key will be to establish the run and pick their spots, as few as needed, in the pass game. 

Minnesota is favored by three points at home. The Patriots just allowed three points in a win in Week 11, the Vikings gave up 40 in an embarrassing home loss. But one team hosted the Jets, the other the Cowboys. New England has the better defense but siding with Minnesota is more an endorsement of Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense, at home and in primetime on a short week with Mac Jones on the other side. Cousins owns a 94.9 QB rating at home (78.7 on the road). 

The Pats have played two teams with winning records so far, and lost them by 11 and 13 points. They enter this one with big injury issues on the O-line that won’t help Jones in what should be a tough situation for the second-year pro. Lay the small number on the motivated Vikings. 

Mac Jones Over 6.5 Yards Rushing & Kirk Cousins Over 3.5 Yards Rushing

Odds: +250 at Caesars Sportsbook

Neither QB is fleet of foot but both have had moments. Jones has three carries for just one yard in the last two games combined, but prior to that had three straight games with 19-31 yards. A similar feast-for-famine for Cousins, who has zero or less yards in three of Minnesota’s last five games, with 12 and 22 yards in the other two. 

Neither of these teams are very good at keeping an eye on the QB when he drops back, though. The Patriots allow 27.1 ypg to opposing quarterbacks, the Vikings are at 28.6 ypg, ranking 27th and 28th, respectively.