Bookies.com Staff for Bookies.com

By Bookies.com Staff | | 6 mins

Betting NFL First Touchdown Scorers: Trends For 2021 Season Emerge

Betting NFL First Touchdown Scorers: Trends For 2021 Season Emerge
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Ten weeks into the NFL betting season, trends have formed on what teams and players are typically the first to score during a game.

Bookies.com tracked the NFL during those first 10 weeks to gather information on what teams and players have scored first. After tracking each game, we analyzed each category to determine the trends on these popular NFL props.

So, how should you attack the last eight weeks of the season? Hopefully these trends will point you toward what might be a good First Touchdown bet at betting apps moving forward.

NFL Teams Scoring First – Most & Least Often

Betting NFL First Touchdown Scorers: Trends For 2021 Season Emerge 1

While the average NFL team has found itself scoring first in half of its games, a few teams have trended toward being a constant favorite to score first. In their 10 games this season, the Arizona Cardinals have scored first in eight of those contests. This is obviously no surprise, as the Cardinals are tied for the best overall record this season at 8-2 with the Titans and Packers. It also isn’t a shock to see top offensive teams such as the Bills, Chargers and Buccaneers toward the top of the list of teams that score first.

The most surprising finding from gathering this information? The 4-5 Vikings are tied for second by scoring first in 7 of their 9 games. So, how do they find themselves down in the NFC playoff race? Probably due to the fact that Minnesota has played in eight one-score games this season. Head coach Mike Zimmer and the Vikings have struggled to just close out games after leading a majority of their games early. Five of the top 11 teams are either at or below .500 through Week 10.

While the top teams that have scored first had a few surprises, the NFL teams that have scored first the least in 2021 are a familiar cast of flailing characters. Out of the six teams listed above, four of have a combined five wins this year. The Jets, Jaguars, Lions and Texans have been some of the worst teams in the NFL this year and will consistently be heavy underdogs as the First Team to Score a Touchdown across all sportsbooks.

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Which NFL Players Have Scored First Most This Season?

Betting NFL First Touchdown Scorers: Trends For 2021 Season Emerge 2

Russell Wilson has locked on to his top target early in games this year, as Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf leads the NFL with the most touchdowns scored first in games (3 TDs). While Metcalf typically has the top-3 NFL odds to score first in a game, he has been a solid choice – but is he worth it value-wise?

As an example, if you were to have bet $10 on DK Metcalf to score first this past Sunday vs. the Packers, you would have made $80 at +800 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Over Seattle’s nine games, you would have made $180 if you bet $10 on DK Metcalf to score first in every game if his odds were consistent at +800.

After the top spot, 23 different players have scored twice as the first scorer in a game this year. While most of the names won’t shock you, the appearance of Chargers backup TE Donald Parham Jr., Bills projected fourth WR Gabriel Davis and Falcons WR Olamide Zacchaeus on the list was not expected.

After seeing names like this, it shows the volatility of the betting on this prop every week. While there may be consistent 1st TD production from top receivers and starting running backs, don’t be surprised when a low-profile player steals one from your betslip. For example, the Bills Defense had better odds of scoring the first touchdown than Gabriel Davis this weekend against the Jets – even though Davis has done it twice.

One potential trend that could work in the future weeks is to target teams that have structured target share in the redzone. Based on the season so far, teams such as the Vikings have four first touchdowns scored by top wide receivers Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson – who have significant red zone targets in 2021.

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What did First Touchdown Scorer Bets Look Like in NFL Week 10?

Betting NFL First Touchdown Scorers: Trends For 2021 Season Emerge 3

After looking at which players have scored first the most, we took a snapshot of Week 10 to see which players scored first, what their closing odds on DraftKings Sportsbook were and how much a $10 bettor would have made. This is just another good example of the volatility of betting the First Touchdown Scorer prop and adds to the list of over 120 different players who have scored first in 2021.

Out of the 12 games played on Sunday, eight of the first touchdown scorers were at +1400 odds or higher. It goes to show that you might want to shoot for a value pick in most games, but keeping your action light on these props at betting sites is the smartest move. Certainly, credit to those who picked DeAndre Carter to score first in the Buccaneers-Washington Football Team matchup. Just don’t make plays like that part of your long-term betting strategy.


Thursday Night Football First Touchdown Prediction

Score Opening TD: Stefon Diggs, Bills (+800 at DraftKings)

The Bills WR is unquestionably the top target for QB Josh Allen. Diggs’ 86 targets is 17 more than anyone else and he leads the team in receptions, yards and is tied for the TD lead. While Diggs has only four TDs so far, three of them have been the last four games.

The Colts have a solid defense overall but have one key weakness – guarding receivers in the red zone. No team has allowed more touchdowns to WRs than Indianapolis. With Diggs becoming more of a priority near the end zone, he gets the edge over Emmanuel Sanders or Cole Beasley. – Adam Thompson

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Methodology: Bookies.com tracked the NFL during the first 10 weeks of the 2021 season to gather information on what teams and players have scored first during each NFL game. After tracking each game, we analyzed each category to establish trends on how each NFL team and player have performed on these popular betting props.

For Week 10 of NFL, Bookies.com utilized the DraftKings Sportsbook closing odds for First Touchdown Scorer to analyze how this betting prop pans out on a week-to-week basis and how bettors would have performed if they took the correct First Touchdown Scorer prop (Odds looked at for a $10 bettor).

Fair Use: When using this data and research, please attribute by linking to this study and citing https://bookies.com.

About the Author

Bookies.com Staff for Bookies.com
Bookies.com Staff