Betting Titans Odds After Julio Jones Trade: Is There Value?
The Tennessee Titans are near co-favorites with the Indianapolis Colts to win the AFC South across NFL futures betting markets at several top sportsbooks after agreeing a trade for wide receiver Julio Jones.
The Titans and Colts were each +110 to win the division at DraftKings in the wake of the Jones news. The price shifted a bit Monday, with the Colts moving to +105.
Each team has made significant acquisitions in the offseason. The Titans add Jones to an offense that already features receiver A.J. Brown and running back Derrick Henry, who ran for 2,027 yards on 378 carries in 2020. The Colts lost Philip Rivers to retirement but replaced him at quarterback with Carson Wentz.
Titans Odds Following Jones Trade
Here are the latest NFL odds on the Tennessee Titans in futures markets following news of the team’s trade for Jones:
|Super Bowl 56 winner||+3000||Bet at William Hill|
|AFC Title||+1500||Bet at William Hill|
|AFC South winner||+110||Bet at DraftKings|
|Over 9 Wins||-155||Bet at PointsBet|
|Over 10 Wins||+135||Bet at 888sport|
|Make Playoffs||-138||Bet at FanDuel|
All odds are current as a publication.
How Jones Trade Impacts Titans Betting Odds
Jones is a huge catch for the Titans, who will send the Falcons a 2022 second-round pick and a 2023 fourth-round selection in exchange for the receiver. The Titans will also get a 2023 sixth-round pick in return.
Jones averages 95.5 receiving yards per game, the most in NFL history for anyone who has played more than 100 games. His 848 career catches and 12,896 yards receiving are the most of any player in Atlanta franchise history. His 60 TDs are second all-time for the Falcons.
Tennessee’s odds to win the AFC moved from +1800 before the weekend to +1500 following news of the Jones trade. In AFC Championship markets, Tennessee is much smarter value than Denver (+1200), Indianapolis (+1200) or Miami (+1500).
The Titans are -138 to make the playoffs at FanDuel and +114 to miss the postseason at the same site.
Prior to the Jones deal, the Titans win total at NFL betting sites bounced between 9 and 10 total wins. They are now -155 to win more than 9 games at PointsBet and +135 to win more than 10 games at 888sport.
Tennessee took the AFC South last season with an 11-5 record after beating out Indianapolis on the tiebreaker. At +135, the over on 10 wins with an extra home game over a 17-game NFL schedule in 2021 is quite tempting. One caveat, the Titans have the toughest strength of schedule of any team in the AFC South (.507 opponent record in 2020), and are 13th overall in the NFL.
Even at +3000, the Titans remain a stretch to consider when looking at Super Bowl 56 odds. Even if his team gets past the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in the AFC, Mike Vrabel would likely be facing an NFC team/quarterback that has either won or recently been to a Super Bowl. Meanwhile, Vrabel’s last trip to the NFL Championship Game came as a linebacker with the New England Patriots 14 years ago.
Titans React To Jones Trade
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill wasn’t the only member of the Titans offense happy to see Jones added to the roster. Henry and Brown had been openly recruiting Jones via social media. Sunday, Brown shared an image of himself, Henry and Jones in Titans uniforms, with the caption “Y’all done (Expletive) up.”
Jones carries a $15.3 million fully guaranteed base salary in 2021. The Titans will likely be re-working his contract after the deal - which is pending a physical - becomes official. Jones’ cap hit for Atlanta is currently $23.05 million this year, and $19.263 million in 2022 and 2023.
"Excited to add Julio to the football team. He's excited to be part of what we've got going on in Nashville. It's a big day for our team," Titans GM Jon Robinson said Sunday via ESPN. He added the Titans will get down to the salary-cap limit by restructuring contracts and not cutting players.
The Titans were +400 to land Jones, while the Patriots had been the favorite in 2021 first-snap markets at +200.
What About The Falcons?
Jones began lobbying for a trade immediately after the 2020 season. The Falcons were a dismal 4-12 last year. They appear headed to a complete rebuild once they’re able to get Matt Ryan off the books. The Falcons may have once seen an opening in the NFC South with the retirement of Drew Brees in New Orleans, but that was before Tampa Bay picked up Tom Brady and a Super Bowl championship. The Bucs have brought back all 22 starters for another title run.
The Falcons chose Florida tight end Kyle Pitts with the fourth overall pick in the 2021 draft, a move that all but ensured Jones would be playing elsewhere. Pitts will be used as a hybrid in Atlanta’s offense and will be targeted in multiple sets.
Atlanta is +5500 to win Super Bowl 56 at FOX Bet, +2700 to win the NFC and +700 to win the NFC South. None of those bets are worth the play at any price.
The Falcons win total is hovering around 7.5. The under is +110, which is a solid play. Asking the Falcons to double their win total in 2021 without Jones seems unreasonable, even with a 17-game season. Atlanta could go 1-5 or even winless in its own division.