Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

By Adam Thompson | | 8 mins

Buffalo Bills At Kansas City Chiefs Picks & NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Buffalo Bills At Kansas City Chiefs Picks & NFL Divisional Round Predictions
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Expect fireworks at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night, because the end zones will be getting work when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in a massive AFC Divisional Round showdown. These teams rank third and fourth in the NFL in scoring, and third and fifth in yards gained. This is a rematch of a Week 5 game in Buffalo, a game the Bills cruised to a 38-20 victory, and a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game.

Sportsbooks opened with a slight two-point spread for Kansas City at most of the leading betting sites and available betting apps, with the Over/Under rising from 54.5 to 55 since opening.

Take a look at Bills vs Chiefs odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Bills vs Chiefs Key Matchups

Devin Singletary vs. Chiefs Front 7: Singletary has become a force out of the Bills backfield, including a whopping eight TDs in the last five games. KC has allowed only nine TDs to running backs all year, the second-lowest total in the NFL.

Travis Kelce vs. Bills LBs: Kelce finished No. 2 among TEs in receptions and yards, and tied for first in TDs. He also had 108 yards and a TD in the Wild Card Round. Buffalo has allowed the second-fewest receptions to the position and third-fewest scores.

Josh Allen’s Feet vs. Chiefs Shadow LB: Allen is averaging 67.8 rush yards the last six games and had 59 plus a TD in Week 5 vs. the Chiefs. KC ranks bottom 10 in defending QB runs and has allowed the most rush TDs to them (7).


5 Key Bills vs. Chiefs Stats

12: Pass TDs allowed by the Bills in 17 regular-season games. Only one other team allowed fewer than 20.

41.3: Yards per game average for Tyreek Hill in three career games vs. the Bills with zero TDs. His best of the three, seven catches for 63 yards, was in Week 5. Buffalo leads the league in fewest yards and TDs allowed to opposing WRs.

57: Receptions allowed by the Bills to opposing running backs, the fewest in the NFL. Chiefs RBs have accounted for 96 receptions.

320.2: Pass yards per game over the last five weeks by Patrick Mahomes. He has 15 TDs to just two INTs in that span.

3,047: Pass yards allowed this season by the Bills defense – nearly 400 fewer yards than any other team.


Bills vs. Chiefs Weather Forecast

Expect nothing out of the ordinary for a Sunday night in January in KC. The high for the day is 40 degrees, with sun expected and no chance of precipitation. It will be cool in the evening but only down to around 30. Buffalo’s players and fans can certainly handle that.


Bills vs Chiefs Player Props

Josh Allen, Over 50.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

Allen has surpassed this mark in five of Buffalo’s last six games and the Chiefs are among the league’s worst at keeping QBs in the pocket. He had 59 yards and a TD vs. KC earlier.

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Tyreek Hill, Under 70.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Hill hasn’t gone over 60 yards in over a month and yet it hasn’t made the Chiefs offense any less productive (34.3 ppg). Buffalo is by far the top team at slowing down top opposing WRs.

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Josh Allen, Over 328.5 Passing + Rushing Yards

Odds: -110 at FanDuel

In five games against playoff-level teams since Week 1 (excluding the windstorm game vs. New England), Allen has finished with no fewer than 374 yards in any of those matchups. That includes the Bills’ win over the Chiefs in Week 5.

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RELATED: NFL Divisional Round Picks & Predictions For Every Game


Bills vs. Chiefs Moneyline

The host Chiefs are -130 on the moneyline, meaning a $130 wager would win $100 in profit. On the other side, the Bills are at +110 ($100 wins $110 in profit).

Those looking to avoid a one-point Chiefs win may consider the moneyline instead. That’s not the way we’re leaning, however. Buffalo dismantled KC earlier this season and while the Chiefs are playing better, so is Buffalo. We’re siding with the Bills here. Getting a little extra on a straight-up win bet is enticing.

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Bills vs. Chiefs Point Spread

When it comes to NFL spreads, the Chiefs are -2 here.

Buffalo has won five in a row, each by at least a TD. Granted, three of those wins were against non-playoff teams, and the other two were both against New England. Kansas City has won six of seven vs. playoff-level teams, though against teams in the final eight of the postseason, it’s just 1-3, and the win was vs. the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers (13-6). The matchups – Mahomes vs. the No. 1 pass defense, Allen vs. KC’s 25th-ranked pass D, and a better run game – favor Buffalo across the board. Those looking for a Sunday night side as part of your NFL picks should consider the Bills.

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Bills vs. Chiefs Totals

The Over/Under for Sunday Night Football here is 55 points. As expected, that’s the highest Over/Under of the Divisional Round and is up a half-point since opening at 54.5.

These teams rank top five in the NFL in scoring and in points scored. But take a look at what the defenses do, especially when Buffalo is on the road and Kansas City is at home. The Chiefs allow only 17.9 ppg at Arrowhead, the Bills only 17.5 in away games – a 35.4 ppg total. Scoring, they combine for 58.5 ppg in those splits. A total of 55 seems high. The Under looks like the better side for your NFL betting Divisional Round Sunday ticket, though we prefer the spread and moneyline for this game.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com.