To be the man you have to beat the man, and Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens will attempt to do just that when they host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday. 

Mahomes and the Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champions. Mahomes won last year’s Most Valuable Player Award as well. This season, Jackson is the favorite to win the MVP, and his team is the favorite to represent the AFC – and dethrone the champs in the process. 

Baltimore is at -3.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. Ravens NFL odds, with an Over/Under of 44.5 points. 

Bookies.com veteran NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on a whopping 62-64% of his NFL pickss three years running, reveals his plays for the AFC Championship. 

Chiefs vs. Ravens Odds

Chiefs vs. Ravens Point Spread Pick

In the last two games that mattered vs. Chiefs-similar offenses, Baltimore held the Texans and Jaguars to 10 and 7 points. In-between, they held down the Dolphins and Niners to less than 20. They’ve scored over 30 points in nine of the last 11 games that mattered. 

Giving Patrick Mahomes 3.5 points is always a risk, but KC’s struggles to slow the run play well for Baltimore. All 12 of the Ravens’ victories since Week 2 have been by at least six points, and averaged 18.9 ppg. Play the Ravens to cover and advance to the Super Bowl as the best bet of the AFC Championship, and get the best odds for it at ESPN BET. 

Chiefs vs. Ravens Over/Under Best Bet

On the surface, the line on this one 44.5 points could seem high. After all, we’re talking the top two defenses in the NFL in terms of points allowed, allowing a combined 33.2 ppg. But the Ravens allow more points at home than on the road, the Chiefs more on the road compared to home. 

We’re also talking about a Ravens offense that scores 32.1 ppg at home. The Chiefs’ red zone issues have forced more FGs than TDs lately, but if they can get to 20 points – this is Mahomes we’re talking about, so they certainly can – Jackson and the Ravens can get to 24 and then some. Take the Over as a secondary play at BetMGM. 

Chiefs vs. Ravens Moneyline Pick

The favored Ravens are -185 on the moneyline, so it would take a $185 wager to win $100 in profit on a Baltimore win. Conversely, the Chiefs are at +154 (wager $154 to win $100 in profit). We’re siding with the Ravens to cover, but is straight-up worth a play. 

At these odds, with a spread of 3.5 points, it makes some sense. But the Ravens haven’t won a game by fewer than four points since Week 2. Only one KC defeat since opening night was by under four points. And we’re spending a considerable amount more on Mahomes losing in the AFC title game. We’d rather stick with the spread. 

Chiefs vs. Ravens Top Player Props Bets

Lamar Jackson, Under 213.5 Pass Yards

Over the last six weeks, Jackson has thrown for under 180 yards three times, and over 250 yards three times. The Ravens won all those games. Jackson and the Ravens take what the defense gives them. In this case, KC ranks No. 4 vs. the pass but 25th in rush yards per attempt. The Ravens will run the ball until the Chiefs stop it, then Jackson will do his thing through the air. 

Travis Kelce, Over 61.5 Receiving Yards

When push comes to shove, Mahomes-to-Kelce is how the Chiefs have become the dynasty it is. That especially comes through in the playoffs. In these playoffs, Kelce has gained 71 and 75 yards. In six career games vs. the Ravens, Kelce has never finished with under six receptions or under 73 yards. There’s little reason to expect this massive of a dip on Sunday. Bank on the Over for Kelce at BetMGM.