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Cincinnati Bengals At Kansas City Chiefs Picks & AFC Championship Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 6 mins

Cincinnati Bengals At Kansas City Chiefs Picks & AFC Championship Predictions

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Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are one win from reaching the Super Bowl for the third consecutive year, with Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals standing in their way. The AFC Championship is set for Sunday at 3 p.m. ET. The Bengals downed the top-seeded Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round, while the Chiefs edged the Buffalo Bills in an OT game for the ages. These teams just faced off, a 34-31 Cincinnati home win in Week 17.

Sportsbooks don’t see a repeat result, with Kansas City favored by a full seven points at most of the leading betting sites and available betting apps, with the Over/Under rising from 53.5 to 54.5 since opening.

Take a look at Bengals vs Chiefs odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Bengals vs Chiefs Key Matchups

Joe Mixon vs. Chiefs Front 7: KC ranks only 21st vs. the run but has allowed just seven rushing TDs on the season, one off the NFL lead. Mixon has 13 TDs but just two over the last six weeks.

Travis Kelce vs. Bengals LBs: Kelce had just 25 receiving yards vs. the Bengals in Week 17, but has 108 and 96 in two playoff games, and at least one TD in five straight.

Bengals O-Line vs. Chiefs D-Line: QB Joe Burrow was sacked eight times vs. the Titans last week and 51 times in the regular season, the most in the NFL. Kansas City’s defense ranked only 31st in sacks.

5 Key Bengals vs Chiefs Stats

217: Receptions allowed to running backs by these defenses; the Chiefs (109) and Bengals (107) rank 29th and 28th, respectively. Jerick McKinnon has 11 receptions in two playoff games for KC, Joe Mixon has 10 for Cincy.

266: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase went ballistic vs. KC, with 11 receptions for a ridiculous 266 yards and three TDs. He has 116 and 109 yards in two playoff games.

354: The Bengals are 8-1 this season when holding their opponent to under 354 total yards, and 4-6 when it’s over that mark. The Chiefs have gone over 354 in all but three games (and are 2-1 when they’re under).

4,442: Passing yards allowed by the Chiefs’ defense this season, including 446 to Joe Burrow in their Week 17 loss at Cincinnati.

4,447: Passing yards allowed by the Bengals, the sixth-most this season. Patrick Mahomes went for 259 with a 113.9 passer rating in Week 17.

Bengals vs Chiefs Weather Forecast

Expect nothing out of the ordinary for a Sunday afternoon in January in KC. The high for the day is 46 degrees, with sun expected and no chance of precipitation. That will actually be a nice rise from what the Bengals have been feeling lately in Cincy, where the highs the past week have ranged from 24 to 39.

Bengals vs Chiefs Player Props

Joe Burrow, Over 285.5 Pass Yards

Odds: -115 at PointsBet

Burrow went for 446 yards and four TDs three weeks ago vs. these Chiefs, and we saw last week that KC’s pass defense hasn’t improved much since then. Burrow is averaging 390.8 ypg the last four weeks, all must-wins to get to this point – 100 yards above this total.

Tyler Boyd, Over 39.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -114 at FanDuel

We watched last week as Buffalo’s No. 2 WR Gabriel Davis went over 200 yards receiving vs. the Chiefs. We don’t expect Cincy’s No. 2 to go that far, and he hasn’t even hit this mark the last three weeks. But he averaged 80.5 ypg the previous four.

Travis Kelce, Score A TD

Odds: -125 at DraftKings

Kelce has six TDs in the last five games, and at least one in all of them. He managed just five receptions for 25 yards vs. the Bengals a few weeks ago, but still scored. The Bengals have allowed the sixth-most TDs to TEs.

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Bengals vs. Chiefs Moneyline

The host Chiefs are -310 on the moneyline, meaning a $310 wager would win $100 in profit. On the other side, the Bengals are at +245 ($100 wins $245 in profit).

Patrick Mahomes is 8-2 all-time in the playoffs and Kansas City has won 11 of its last 12 games overall. The one loss, however, was to these Bengals. Joe Burrow went wild vs. this KC defense, which still ranks 27th overall. Kansas City is a perfect 9-0 straight-up in its last nine when favored by at least a TD. We believe the Chiefs get it done here but find no value in their moneyline.

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Bengals vs. Chiefs Point Spread

When it comes to NFL spreads, the Chiefs are -7 here. They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five when laying a TD, the exception being a meaningless Week 18 matchup with the Broncos. The average margin in those other four was 24.8 ppg.

Cincinnati backers haven’t been given a full TD this season. It had underdog spreads of +6 and +6.5 and covered in each. Each team has been a profitable host, with the Bengals covering in six straight and the Chiefs in eight of 10, including six straight at home. There are legit reasons to back either side here, so we’re not backing either. Those looking for a Sunday side as part of your NFL picks should consider the NFC Championship Game.

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Bengals vs. Chiefs Totals

The Over/Under for the AFC Championship stands at 54.5 points, a number that jumped a full point within hours of posting. Clearly, people believe this is going to be a shootout.

They have good reason. The Chiefs and Bengals each possess a premier pass game and a bottom-level pass defense. When they met in Week 17, 65 points were scored and 859 yards were amassed, including 446 yards and four TDs from Burrow. If there is a caveat, it’s that Cincy’s defense has taken its game to new levels. No Bengals game since Week 17 has totaled over 45 points. Fortunately, the last seven KC games have averaged 60.4 ppg. Matchups scream shootout. The Over looks like the better side for your NFL betting AFC Championship Sunday ticket.

About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.