Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals are one win away from advancing to the Super Bowl for the second consecutive year. In their way, Patrick Mahomes and a Kansas City Chiefs team aiming for their third Super Bowl in four seasons. The teams face off on Sunday in the AFC Championship at Arrowhead Stadium. 

The Chiefs are the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they lost in Cincinnati 27-24 on Dec. 4. Burrow is a perfect 3-0 against Mahomes, who is battling an ankle injury suffered in Saturday’s win over the Jaguars. 

Because of that, the road side is favored in the latest Bengals vs. Chiefs odds, with Cincinnati at -1.5 at NFL betting sites. The Over/Under for total points is 46.5 points on sports betting apps. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – focused on hitting over 60% of his NFL picks for a fourth-consecutive season – reveals his best plays and props for the AFC title match. 

Bengals vs. Chiefs Point Spread Pick

In three meetings between Burrow and Mahomes, the Bengals have emerged victorious, each time by a single field goal. Much has been said about how Burrow has dominated the Chiefs defense (982 yards, eight TDs, one INT). Mahomes has been good, too, just not as good. 

But an immobile Mahomes is a massive blow. He’s already one of the best passing-on-the-move QBs in history. The home team in the AFC Championship Game has won seven of the last nine, but both losses were by KC, including last year vs. a less-seasoned Bengals side. 

Take the Bengals to advance and cover as the secondary play. 

Bengals vs. Chiefs Over/Under Best Bet

The Under has hit in six of the last seven Chiefs home games. But in the three meetings between Burrow and Mahomes, 51, 51, and 65 points have been tallied. The number for Sunday likely dropped due to Mahomes’ injury, but if he’s out there, he’s going to sling it and be successful. 

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The last three Chiefs games with O/Us in the 40s all hit Over and averaged 55.7 ppg. Burrow is going to show up, and so is Mahomes. Expect another high-scoring game here. Jump on the Over in KC as the top play of the night. 

Bengals vs. Chiefs Moneyline Pick

We’re taking the Bengals to cover on Ohio betting apps, so the lean is on Cincinnati on the moneyline at -125 (Kansas City is at +110). The question is, does the straight-up price make a moneyline bet worth it? 

The last three matchups, all in the last 16 months, have been decided by exactly three points each time. On the surface, two points doesn't mean a whole lot. Bengals moneyline isn’t a bad bet, but don’t double-down on both the moneyline and spread. 

Best Bengals vs. Chiefs Player Props

Joe Mixon, Over 22.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -110 at Caesars Sportsbook

The Chiefs ranked a solid No. 6 in the NFL in fewest rush yards allowed. But they made up for it by allowing more receptions to RBs than any other team. 

Mixon has only 17 and 18 receiving yards the last two games, but had 41, 43 and 33 the three weeks prior, and KC covers RBs in the pass game as poorly as any team. If you can’t run through them, pass around them. 

Travis Kelce, Over 6.5 Receptions

Odds: -140 at DraftKings Sportsbook

When Mahomes isn’t at 100%, he goes to his security blanket – who also happens to be perhaps the best pass-catching TE in history. Kelce had 14 receptions for 98 yards last week vs. the Jaguars. 

He’s had at least six receptions in five straight games and with a Super Bowl berth on the line, expect more. In the last three AFC Championship or Super Bowl games, he’s had at least 10 receptions in each.