Hopeful AFC contenders still seeking offensive identities face off on the Week 5 edition of Thursday Night Football, as Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos host Matt Ryan and the Indianapolis Colts. 

Wilson’s Broncos are 2-2, and Ryan’s Colts are just 1-2-1. Both veteran QBs were expected to lead high-scoring offenses and compete for playoff spots and more. Instead, each has generated more questions than answers. 

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Oddsmakers have Denver at -3.5 in the latest Colts vs. Broncos odds, with an Over/Under of 42 points, down from 43.5 after Wednesday's announcement that Colts RB Jonathan Taylor will miss the game. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who hit on 70% of his NFL picks the last two weeks – reveals his plays for the intriguing primetime AFC matchup. 

Colts vs. Broncos Point Spread Pick

The Colts have covered the spread just once this season, winning as an underdog against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Denver has just two covers in its last eight games dating back to last season. 

Neither side makes much of a case here. The Colts defense has been steadier, but Taylor will miss TNF, taking a big bite out of the offense. Denver ranks No. 5 vs. the pass, which makes for a good matchup here. 

But it’s in the bottom half for both rushing and passing on the offensive end, and moves forward without its own star in RB Javonte Williams (ACL). 

When it’s all broken down, projections point to either of these teams winning by two points or less. Regardless of which side the pendulum lands on, that makes the Colts the better spread pick. Back Indianapolis at +3.5. 

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Colts vs. Broncos Over/Under Best Bet

On paper, we expected points. In reality, it’s not happened. These teams rank 30th and 32nd in scoring, combining to average a laughable 30.8 ppg. The Over/Under of 42 has to be too high, right? 

Actually, yes. The Under has hit in every Colts game this season, and in nine straight dating back to last year. It’s 3-1 in Broncos games, the lone exception because the Raiders hung 32 on them last week. That included a defensive TD. 

Defense has been the mantra for both sides, and so has the Under. This total remains too high all things considered. Under is the top play for Thursday Night Football. I locked it in on Wednesday at 43.5 but 42 isn't bad. 

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Colts vs. Broncos Moneyline Pick

Neither team has given us much reason to believe the hype just yet. The Broncos lost to the Seahawks and Raiders but beat the 49ers. 

The Colts, meanwhile, handled the Chiefs but were blanked by the Jaguars and tied the Texans. 

Breaking down the numbers, the trends, and the matchups doesn't provide much separation for either side. This has the feel of a decided-at-the-wire game that hopefully will be entertaining for viewers. 

Denver is -175 on the moneyline as a home favorite, with Indy sitting at +150 on betting apps. Given how close of a matchup this appears, the value is on the dog. 

Best Colts vs. Broncos Player Props

Mo Alie-Cox, Score A TD

Odds: +390 at DraftKings

OK this sounds wild, but here we go. Alie-Cox is tied for the lead in TDs for the Colts so far, with two of them in five games. Four of Matt Ryan’s five passing TDs so far? Also to tight ends. 

The Broncos have slowed TEs down well outside of the 20 yard line. But in the red zone? They’ve allowed three TDs through the air in four games. Two of them were to tight ends. One team’s crutch is another team’s weakness. 

Melvin Gordon, Under 57.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

Indy’s defense has limited RBs in three of the four games so far, the lone exception being Derrick Henry. Melvin Gordon is no Henry; he’ll be the lead back on Thursday but was limited in practice (neck) and has averaged a modest 13 carries per game since going to Denver in 2020. 

Gordon averages 3.8 yards per carry. The Colts have allowed only 3.1. He may not get the 18 or so carries needed to hit this mark. Gordon might be effective in the pass game, but we’re not backing him on the ground. 

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