Isla Knightley for Bookies.com

By Isla Knightley | | 7 mins

Green Bay Packers At Cleveland Browns Free Picks & Betting Predictions

Green Bay Packers At Cleveland Browns Free Picks & Betting Predictions
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The Green Bay Packers (11-3) sewed up a third-straight NFC North title on the heels of a 31-30 win over the surprisingly plucky Baltimore Ravens, who were fielding backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. But the Packers have loftier ambitions that go beyond divisional supremacy. It’s Super Bowl or bust for Aaron Rodgers and Co.

The Packers have been knocking on the Super Bowl’s door for the last two seasons, but they failed twice after back-to-back NFC Championship defeats in 2019 and 2020. This year, more so than in those previous near-miss seasons, the Packers have something special about them. Call it confidence, swagger, X-factor...

Whatever the label, the wide consensus amongst NFL betting analysts and fans alike is that this is the best Packers team Aaron Rodgers has presided over in a long time. And that fact is nowhere more so evinced than in Super Bowl futures as Green Bay has emerged as the top favorite (or one of the top two favorites) with various betting sites to win Super Bowl 56.

Clinching the No.1 seed in the NFC will go a long way toward underscoring Green Bay’s odds for the playoffs. They’re in pole position in the NFC going into Week 16. And with the floundering Cleveland Browns (7-7) up next, books favor the Packers to take another big step forward.

The Browns are coming off a bitterly disappointing defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders that thrust their playoff hopes into disarray. The Browns were without head coach Kevin Stefanski, quarterback Baker Mayfield and backup quarterback Case Keenum, along with several other players, due to a COVID-19 outbreak. Recently signed Nick Mullens was thrown into the mix with little preparation. He did his best in his first start for the Browns – which was rescheduled from Saturday to Monday to give the Browns a chance to bolster their ranks – but the Browns came out on the wrong side of a narrow 16-14 decision.

Check out the latest Browns vs Packers odds, betting lines, injury report and more.

Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers Key Matchups

Quarterback vs. Packers defense: At the time of writing, it’s uncertain whether Baker Mayfield will be starting against the Packers this Saturday. Reports suggest he’s on track, along with Kevin Stefanski, to return in Week 16, but until it is confirmed that he’s tested out of COVID-19 protocols, the Packers defense will not know which quarterback to prepare for. Case Keenum is also on the reserve/COVID-19 list, while Nick Mullens joined the team last week to replace the pair.

Nick Chubb vs. Packers run defense: The Browns are built around their running corps, no ifs or buts about it. Containing Chubb is no mean feat and the Packers run defense will have its hands full. That said, Kareem Hunt remains on the COVID-19 list and his absence diminishes the one-two punch run game that enjoyed massive success in 2020 and instilled fear in opponents.

Davante Adams vs. Browns secondary: The Ravens did everything in their power to neutralize Davante Adams and they were successful as they had the star receiver under double coverage for almost the entire game and held him to merely 44 yards. And yet, the Packers won. Thus, proving that stopping Adams isn’t the key to stopping the Packers’ offense.


RELATED: NFL Week 16 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games


Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers Key Stats

2-4: Cleveland’s record on the road this season.

13:7: Baker Mayfield’s touchdown to interception ratio in 12 starts.

30:4: Aaron Rodgers’ touchdown to interception ratio in 13 starts.

15.25: The average points scored by the Browns in the last four games.

6-0: Green Bay’s record against the spread (ATS) at home.


Weather Forecast

Green Bay’s forecast calls for freezing weather with a chance of rain and/or snow.


Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers Moneyline

Without knowing the status of Kevin Stefanski, Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum, or the rest of the Browns’ roster that is on the reserve/COVID-19 list right now, it’s impossible to bet on the Browns to mastermind the biggest upset of the season. No matter how tempting the odds might be for NFL picks.

Granted, upsets do happen. Last week was a prime example as both the Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers were upset in stunning fashion – to the delight of the Packers and their fans. But expecting a hobbled Browns to take a page from those results is pretty out there.

For all intents and purposes, the Packers are probably the smart bet to win. However, with odds of -320 or thereabouts depending on preferred betting apps, there’s little value on the moneyline as far as risk versus reward is concerned.

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Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers Point Spread

The NFL spreads across multiple online betting platforms are predictably skewed towards the Packers. Books opened the Packers as touchdown favorites at home. Consider Green Bay leads the league with an 11-3-0 ATS record that includes a 4.1-points winning margin on average and they’re a flawless 6-0-0 ATS at home with a 13.7-points winning margin on average, it’s hard not to buy what they’re selling.

Even if it were a level playing field, the Browns would still be significant underdogs in this game. Injury woes and COVID certainly have played a part in stacking the odds against the Browns. However, they’ve taken a step back since their banner 2020 campaign. They’re nowhere nearly as solid or convincing and teams seem to have figured them out. Through 14 games, the Browns have only two wins against teams with a winning record (at the time of their meeting). They’re also merely 3-3-0 ATS on the road, with a 3.5-points losing margin on average. You can get Green Bay -7 (-110) at BetMGM.

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Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers Totals

The game total currently trading with various sportsbooks ranges between 44 to 45 points. With all the question marks hanging over the Browns, it’s hard to see them putting up very many points in this game. Green Bay, on the other hand, could have a field day against the banged-up Browns.

In the last four weeks, the Packers have put up 30-plus points, including 45 against the Bears. This may well be a lopsided blowout that cracks the over purely on the merit of the hosts’ offense.

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About the Author

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com
Isla Knightley
Isla, a sports journalist and betting expert, covers several sports, including the NFL, as well politics. She joined Bookies.com in 2021 after contributing to other betting sites.