Josh Allen ignored one of life’s most important lessons against Kansas City in the AFC playoffs last January: “Always Call Heads.”

After failing to hold a pair of leads in the final two minutes, including one with just 13 seconds to play, and Allen and the Bills never got the ball in overtime against the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional round playoff game. Buffalo lost 42-36 in what many outside Western New York consider the greatest NFL game of this century.

Before overtime, Allen called “tails.” Patrick Mahomes got the ball. Eight plays later, the Chiefs were in the end zone. And the Bills' Super Bowl winless streak of “Forever” continued. The national outrage over the Bills never getting a shot in overtime forced the NFL to alter its rules, guaranteeing each team one overtime possession in the postseason.

How will the backstory affect Allen this season? No one knows. But let’s see how well Allen has done against the spread in his career, including how much you would have made or lost betting on Allen at sportsbooks.

It’s not known yet how long last season’s playoff disaster will haunt members of Bills Mafia. The over/under is 10,000 years. But NFL futures oddsmakers remain unbowed. Once again, the Bills are a Super Bowl contender and Allen is getting strong support in the MVP betting market.

Backing Allen A Winning Proposition

As a starter, Allen is 37-27-2 against NFL spreads in his career. That compares less favorably to his 42-24 mark outright in 66 NFL starts. Sportsbooks have shifted on the Bills in recent years, given the loyalty of Buffalo bettors and the legality (at retail outlets and online) of sports betting in New York and nearby on Ontario sports betting sites.

The Bills were overvalued last year by oddsmakers week-to-week. Buffalo was 12-7 overall, but 11-8 ATS. All our records include the postseason.

Using our system of betting $100 on Allen ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line, those who backed Allen weekly since his 2018 debut are up $666.30 in less than four full seasons. A nice return. But never enough to erase the pain. And the wings and beers are on you.

Not all spreads are created equally. For this exercise, we are using the historic Bills ATS records for each game Allen started as noted via Pro Football Reference.

This NFL betting season, the Bills are a consensus pick to win the Super Bowl, getting +650 at PointsBet and +600 at DraftKings. That favorite status carries down through the AFC, where the Bills are +350 at bet365 to win their fifth conference title, and -214 to three-peat as AFC East champions back at PointsBet.

Now that we’ve seen the return from backing Allen week-to-week, let’s check where Allen stands in some key prop markets.

Josh Allen 2022 Futures To Watch

Josh Allen To Win MVP

Here are the odds on Allen winning NFL MVP honors:

Odds: +700 at BetMGM

This market is top heavy, with Allen atop it all. Two-time winner Aaron Rodgers sits in the second tier at +1000. Allen remains in prime position to be in the MVP conversation and scramble his way to the league’s top individual honor. Check out his numbers in several key passing categories during his four NFL seasons to date.

In the wake of last season’s calamitous conclusion, the Bills improved on both sides of the ball despite boasting a defense that was tops in the NFL when it came to allowing points and yards. If the Bills can move beyond what happened in the playoffs, at least on gameday, this may be their best chance to win an NFL championship since Scott Norwood took the field in Tampa at the end of Super Bowl 25.

If the Bills play to their potential, Allen will capture the hearts and minds of MVP voters and finally nab this coveted honor. If you believe the Bills will be successful and dominate during the regular season, back Allen to be the next NFL MVP.

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Josh Allen Props: Total Passing TDs

Here are the odds on total passing TDs for Allen this season:

Allen has gone over this number for the past two seasons. The caveat here is that Buffalo will push the run inside the Red Zone because defenses won’t be expecting it. Allen had a career-high 15 picks last season, so that’s another reason to be wary close to the goal line.

Don’t discount Allen’s ability to run it in on short-and-goal situations, as well. He has averaged 7.3 TDs rushing in his four seasons and covered a career-high 763 yards on the ground last season.

This one is going to be close, but take the under on Allen throwing 35.5 TDs this season at -110 with DraftKings.

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Josh Allen Props: Total Yards Passing

Here are the odds on total yards passing for Allen this season:

This total is slightly below Allen’s total yards passing of 4,407 yards in 2021. It’s a big number, tied for third highest among projected totals for NFL passers. The biggest loss for the Bills offense was the departure of OC Brian Daboll, who is now head coach of the New York Giants. But Allen will enjoy continuity as former QB coach Ken Dorsey was elevated to the OC position.

Allen has all the targets he needs to hit this number, and enough of a running game both in terms of his own ability and backs on the roster to keep opposing defenses honest.

If the Bills turn “13 Seconds” into a rallying cry instead of a crutch, Allen’s numbers this year could be scary good. Take the over on Allen’s passing total of 4,400.5 yards at -110 with DraftKings.

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