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Justin Herbert NFL Draft Odds: Where Will Oregon QB Land

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 5 mins

Justin Herbert NFL Draft Odds: Where Will Oregon QB Land

As many as five quarterbacks could be taken in the opening round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Four could go in the top 10.

Joe Burrow of LSU is going No. 1 — that’s a safe wager in NFL betting at this point. After that, however, it gets dicey, with teams potentially trading up to get their QB. Tua Tagovailoa of Alabama has been a popular trade-up target.

But what about Oregon’s Justin Herbert? He hasn’t received the hype bestowed upon Tagovailoa, but his size, skill and production are right there.

Unibet has odds on where the Ducks QB ends up, and it’s a long list.

Which Team Drafts Justin Herbert

Team Odds
Los Angeles Chargers+150
Miami Dolphins +200
Jacksonville Jaguars +500
New England Patriots+800
Carolina Panthers+1200
Las Vegas Raiders+1200
Cincinnati Bengals+2500
Washington Redskins+2500
Detroit Lions+3300
Indianapolis Colts+4000

All odds are current as of publication and subject to change.

Bookies.com breaks down the teams and makes a pick on Herbert’s pro destination.

What Herbert Brings

Justin Herbert NFL Draft Odds: Where Will Oregon QB Land 1
Justin Herbert of Oregon is not a plodding runner. He ran a 4.68 in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine.

When it comes to physical stature, Herbert looks like a prototypical pocket passer. He’s 6-foot-6, 236 pounds. One would expect a lumbering, Peyton Manning-level of athleticism. But he ran a 4.68 40-yard dash at the NFL combine with a 35.5-inch vertical jump, which ranked better than other QBs considered more mobile or athletic. He ran for three TDs in the Rose Bowl in a win over Wisconsin and was the Senior Bowl MVP after the season.

He’s also a three-time Academic All-American and scored the highest on the Wonderlic among QBs, so mastering a complicated NFL playbook isn’t a concern. Herbert has NFL QB size, he can run with the ball, he’s smart and he’s a proven winner. What’s not to like?

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The Herbert vs. Tagovailoa Debate

Well, Herbert’s game instincts are considered a notch below Tagovailoa’s. Herbert is a deft and effective runner, but had issues escaping pressure in the pocket. In other key abilities, he matches up well with the Alabama QB and surpasses him in a few.

Tua’s injury concerns could give some pause on teams who were previously all-in on him. That and Herbert’s terrific showing at the combine are part of what has allowed Herbert to jump into the argument for being the No. 2 QB selected.

Justin Herbert NFL Draft Odds: Where Will Oregon QB Land 2
Justin Herbert matches up well with Tua Tagovailoa of Alabama and could be the No. 2 quarterback taken.

Narrowing the Field

There are several franchises interested in drafting a quarterback in the first round, and many of them are in play for Herbert — hence the long list of teams on the board. That said, it’s easy to wipe some of them from consideration.

If the Redskins use the No. 2 pick on a QB, it’ll likely be for Tagovailoa, who new head coach Ron Rivera is reportedly very high on.

Carolina was an intriguing choice until the Panthers signed Teddy Bridgewater for two years. He’s the QB for the time being. Herbert isn’t likely to fall to the Jaguars (No. 9) or Raiders (No. 12), and the Patriots (No. 23) seemingly don’t have the pieces to trade up for their QB of the future.

Herbert would be a great fit in Indianapolis to study under Philip Rivers for a season, but the Colts traded away their first-round pick and don’t have the pieces to easily move into Herbert’s range. The Lions have too many pressing needs to waste a top 10 pick on a backup for Matthew Stafford.

That leaves the top two teams on the board, the Chargers and Dolphins.

The Pick

The Dolphins were at one point the clear choice to land Tagovailoa, leaving the door open for the Chargers to get Herbert and let him develop for a spell under presumed Week 1 starter Tyrod Taylor.

But Herbert to Miami is gaining traction and in many ways it makes sense. If the Dolphins follow the blueprint of their rival New England Patriots — head coach Brian Flores and GM Chris Grier worked for the Pats prior to coming to south Florida — getting a high-IQ, strong-armed, big-bodied QB is a big first step, and in this draft that’s Herbert.

If the Redskins take a QB at No. 2, it’s going to be Tagovailoa. If any team feels the need to trade up to No. 3 spot to steal a QB, it is likely for Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins have three first-rounders and a lot of holes to fill. If they believe Herbert is as good as Tagovailoa, they’re better served keeping those picks in their pocket. Regardless of where Tagovailoa goes, Herbert should be there at No. 5 when it’s time for Miami to put in its selection.

We’re getting fair odds on the Dolphins taking Herbert.

About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.