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Kansas City Chiefs A Losing Proposition Against The Spread

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 15 mins

Kansas City Chiefs A Losing Proposition Against The Spread

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The next time you visit your favorite posh sportsbook, marvel at the cutting-edge technology used to process wagers in nanoseconds, or chuckle at some well-paid celebrity spokesperson pitching your favorite sports betting site, don’t forget to thank the Kansas City Chiefs.

The two-time defending AFC Champions have delivered a substantial chunk of revenue to operators of betting sites, betting apps and sportsbooks in the past 11 months. The Chiefs have crushed their bettors by going 3-13 against the spread over their past 16 games. This season, Kansas City has also disappointed its fans by going 2-3 outright, tumbling to fourth place in the AFC West.

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The Chiefs prolonged this terrible run ATS in NFL betting Sunday night, getting shellacked by the underdog Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at home 38-20. This mostly-win-but-not-cover run began on Nov. 8, 2020, when Kansas City was a 10-point favorite over Carolina but failed to cover in a 33-31 victory. The Chiefs are beating the spread just 18.75% of the time during this span. Kansas City has won 11 of 15 outright this same period. The records include two playoff wins outright last season before a 31-9 loss in Super Bowl 55 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In contrast, both the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions are each 3-2 ATS this season, despite only having one win between them in 10 games.

Chiefs Vs The Spread

Here is a look at Kansas City’s current run of futility against the spread over their past 16 games based the closing odds at DraftKings .

DateOppo.SpreadScoreATS Result
10/11/2020PanthersKC -1033-31, KC Loss
11/22/2020RaidersKC -7.535-31, KC Loss
11/29/2020BuccaneersKC -3.527-24, KC Loss
12/6/2020BroncosKC -1322-16, KC Loss
12/13/2020DolphinsKC -7.532-27, KC Loss
12/20/2020SaintsKC -2.532-29, KC Win
12/27/2020FalconsKC -11.517-14, KC Loss
1/3/2021ChargersKC -738-21, LAC Loss
1/17/2021Browns*KC -7.522-17, KC Loss
1/24/2021Bills#KC -338-24, KC Win
2/7/2021Buccaneers@KC -331-9, TB Loss
9/12/2021BrownsKC -5.533-29, KC Loss
9/19/2021RavensKC -436-35, BAL Loss
9/26/2021LA ChargersKC -730-24, LAC Loss
10/3/2021EaglesKC -742-30, KC Win
10/10/2021BillsKC -2.538-20, BUF Loss

Odds via DraftKings . Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

KEY: *: AFC Divisional Playoff; #: AFC Championship Game; @: Super Bowl 55.

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Super Bowl Loss Win For Books

Kansas City Chiefs A Losing Proposition Against The Spread 2

Oddsmakers have been able to lard points on to the Chiefs’ side of the NFL odds betting ledger because of the public’s affinity for Patrick Mahomes II and the team’s recent run of straight-up and postseason success.

The Chiefs’ 31-9 loss to the Bucs in Super Bowl 55 delivered some results for the books, mainly due to significant NFL futures wagering that backed Tom Brady to win his seventh Super Bowl before and during the 2020 season. But in-game betting was tilted heavily toward the favored (-3) Chiefs.

At PointsBet, for example, 90% of the Super Bowl 55 spread handle supported Kansas City at -3. The numbers were weighted toward the Chiefs elsewhere. William Hill, now part of Caesars, carried 65% of its spread handle on the Chiefs. The under on 55.5 helped the books that night, as well, with roughly 2/3 of the total money on the over. Books also cashed big on Mahomes going under 325.5 yards passing in the title game.

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Chiefs ATS Troubles Prolonged This Season

Kansas City Chiefs A Losing Proposition Against The Spread 3

The Chiefs continue to gobble spread cash and bolster the bottom line of sportsbooks everywhere. In the 2021 season opener, Kansas City bettors carried 75% of the 5.5-point spread handle at {FanDuel Sportsbook. The Chiefs won but failed to cover in a 33-29 win over Cleveland.

The Chiefs-Ravens game on Sunday night on Sept. 10 was the most-bet game of Week 2, netting big numbers for the books. At DraftKings, 92% of the spread handle (KC -3.5) and 82% of the moneyline handle (-210) backed the eventual 36-35 losers. The numbers at FanDuel were just as significant, as 95% of the spread money and 85% of the moneyline monetary speculation supported the Chiefs.

Kansas City’s 30-24 outright loss in Week 3 to the Chargers delivered another beneficial outcome for. At {DraftKings Sportsbook that week, the Chiefs carried 70% of the spread liability and 77% of the moneyline handle.

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In Week 4, when the Chiefs scored their lone cover of 2021 thus far, it turned out to be the single worst result for the book at PointsBet. That book gave back 91% of its spread handle after a 42-30 KC win at Philadelphia.

The Chiefs met some limited resistance in Week 5. At WynnBet, 68.3% of the spread handle backed Kansas City. The line opened at KC -3.5 but shifted a point to KC -2.5 (-115) as late bettors wisely backed Buffalo. The moneyline wagering was bit more balanced, with 52.9% of the handle on Kansas City (-140) and 47.1% winning with Buffalo at +120 at the same site.

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.