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Adam Walford for Bookies.com

By Adam Walford | | 5 mins

Kansas City Chiefs At Denver Broncos Free Picks & Betting Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs At Denver Broncos Free Picks & Betting Predictions

The first ever regular season Week 18 kicks off with the Broncos hosting the Chiefs in an AFC West clash on Saturday. The Chiefs need a win to stay in with an outside chance of stealing away the No. 1 seed in the AFC from the Titans, while it’s a dead rubber for the Broncos. Betting sites do still have the Chiefs as favorites to win the AFC.

The Chiefs were in position to take consecutive top seeds in the conference before a loss in Cincinnati left them relying on the Titans losing to the Texans this Sunday. All they can do now is beat the Broncos in their game on Saturday afternoon and hope for help.

The Broncos would have come into this one hoping that they could sneak into a wild-card spot themselves, but injuries and COVID have hurt them in recent weeks. It left them with little chance of beating the Chargers last week, meaning they will now finish bottom of the division.

Let’s take a look at the key matchups to assist your NFL picks on the game.

Take a look at Broncos vs Chiefs odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Chiefs vs Broncos key matchups

Patrick Mahomes vs. Broncos secondary: Early this season it seemed like teams had figured out how to beat the Chiefs, and Vic Fangio and the Broncos provided the blueprint with deep safeties. They still have the roster to slow the Chiefs but I’ll take Mahomes to figure things out.

Darrel Williams vs. Broncos run defense: Clyde Edwards-Helaire started the year as the main man at running back for the Chiefs but he’s been hit with niggling injuries all year and missed last week. Williams has come in and performed well on the ground and through the air, highlighted by 107 combined yards and two scores last weekend.

Denver QB vs. Chiefs defense: It looks like Teddy Bridgewater will miss the final game of the season with a concussion and Drew Lock suffered a shoulder injury last week which he played through. He should make it, but it could be Brett Rypien at QB. Either way they’ll struggle to put up 15 points against a good Chiefs defense.


RELATED: NFL Week 18 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games


Key Chiefs vs Broncos stats

12: Games in a row the Chiefs have won against Denver.

10: Times the Chiefs have covered the spread in those 12 games.

2-8: O/U total points in the 10 games Mahomes has played against the Broncos, his debut game provided one of the 2 overs.

0.404: Vic Fangio’s overall record at the Broncos, there’s rumors this could be his last game in charge.

61: Missed tackles forced by Javonte Williams, second in the league from 131 carries fewer than Jonathan Taylor at No. 1.


RELATED: NFL Week 18 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game


Chiefs vs. Broncos Weather Forecast

A remarkably nice day is expected in Denver; clear with temperatures around 45f, nothing to affect your NFL betting picks.


Chiefs vs Broncos Moneyline

After winning the last 12 games in a row against the Broncos, including every start Patrick Mahomes has made against them, the Chiefs are only worth adding to parlays at a best price of -451 with PointsBet to win the game straight up. They need the game to put pressure on the Titans in the race for the top seed and they might be facing Rypien at QB.

It’s impossible to look past them here. Betting apps are offering a best price of +370 at FanDuel for the Broncos to pull off an unlikely win.

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Chiefs vs Broncos Point Spread

Not only have the Chiefs been beating the Broncos but they’ve been covering NFL spreads in a lot of their wins against them as well, mainly due to solid defense. After a terrible start to the year covering spreads for the Chiefs, they have gone 6-1 in their last 7 games, the failure coming in their loss last week.

Despite it being a high line, I fancy them to cover here as well at a best price of Chiefs -10 at BetMGM.

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Chiefs vs Broncos Totals

The Chiefs' recent winning run was achieved mainly on the back of their defense improving greatly and the victory against the Broncos at Arrowhead was no different, finishing 22-9 to the Chiefs. There’s a good chance they restrict their rivals to under 10 points this week as well, so even with sportsbooks offering a low total of 44, I like the Under. It is best priced at Under 44 points with Caesars Sportsbook.

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About the Author

Adam Walford for Bookies.com
Adam Walford
Adam Walford, who covers the NFL and gambling from across the pond, joined Bookies.com in 2021 after having written for several other betting websites.