Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs begin their quest for a third Super Bowl berth in four seasons as they host Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars in an NFL Playoffs Divisional Round matchup on Saturday. 

It’s a rematch from a Week 10 game, won 27-17 by the Chiefs despite three turnovers. Since then, however, the Jaguars are 7-1, including the shocking 31-30 AFC Wild Card win over the Chargers, a game in which they trailed 27-0. 

Oddsmakers on NFL betting sites aren’t biting, however, installing Kansas City at -8.5 in the latest Jaguars vs. Chiefs odds. The Over/Under for total points is 53 points, solidly the highest total of the weekend on Kansas betting apps. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – focused on hitting over 60% of his NFL picks for a fourth-consecutive season – reveals his best bets and props for the important rematch. 

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Point Spread Pick

Jacksonville fell behind 27-0 to the Chargers last weekend, and won. If they fall behind like that to the Chiefs, the Jaguars aren’t coming back. But KC’s pass defense is mediocre on a good day. If KC is up by two TDs late in the game, the backdoor cover is definitely in play. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags aren’t giving up to the end.

When it comes to close wins, the Chiefs have a lot of them. Half of their 14 victories were by six points or less, five of those by a FG or less. There’s a chance Kansas City rolls by 30, but we’ll take the points on the upstart Jaguars. 

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Jaguars vs. Chiefs Over/Under Best Bet

These teams combined for 44 points in the earlier matchup, and the turnover-prone Jaguars didn’t have any on that day. The weather on Saturday is looking potentially ugly with rain and/or snow during the game. That won’t help the big-play Chiefs, especially, who are tied for No. 1 in yards per attempt. 

Jacksonville is 5-1 when RB Travis Etienne gets over 15 carries, so it behooves them to run often, for its own efforts and to keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands. The Under has hit in four of the last five meetings and in five of the last six games at Arrowhead. Take the Under again here as a secondary play. 

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Jaguars vs. Chiefs Moneyline Pick

We’re going with the Jaguars to cover the spread, but do we dare sprinkle a little on them to win outright on sports betting apps? At +350 (wager $100 to win $350 in profit), the price is right. 

Frankly, it’s a little tough to envision a Jacksonville victory here. While Chiefs games often are close to the end, they’ve lost just one home game all year and that was to the Bills. The Jags aren’t there yet. We’re not putting anything on KC at -435, either, so we’ll stick with the spread and total. 

Best Jaguars vs. Chiefs Player Props

Isiah Pacheco, Over 8.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

Prior to the season finale vs. the Raiders, Pacheco had at least one reception and at least 11 yards receiving in six consecutive games. Of his 10 targets in that span, he has nine receptions, offering reliability for Mahomes. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is activated but don’t expect too much on Saturday. Instead, hope for more of the same out of the backfield for Pacheco against a Jaguars defense that’s 31st in receptions and receiving yards allowed to RBs. 

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Travis Etienne, Over 15.5 Rush Attempts

Odds: +100 at DraftKings

The Jaguars are a much more efficient offense when Etienne is fed. It helps Trevor Lawrence and, in this case, it also runs the clock as a big road dog against Mahomes. The Jaguars have realized this: Last week they rallied from a 27-0 deficit and Etienne still got 20 carries. KC allows 4.7 yards per attempt at home. The Chiefs are 7-2 when teams rush for 105 yards or more against them, with seven of those games decided by six points or less.