No Tyreek Hill. No problem. The 3-1 SU Kansas City Chiefs are flying high in the AFC West and Patrick Mahomes and Co. are averaging 32.2 points per game (second highest). 

Until last weekend, the Las Vegas Raiders were staring into the abyss of a 0-4 SU start – a football season’s equivalent of the Titanic, coming back from which is next to impossible – but a timely win over the Denver Broncos salvaged their season, ever so slightly. 

It’s early in the season, but these age-old AFC West rivals are headed in opposite directions right now – as they often have in the past. 

The premium on the win, therefore, is pretty significant, especially for the visitors who are desperate to get back on track and are in need of some validation after splurging in the offseason to fortify their roster in order to be able to compete with the six-time defending AFC West champs. 

But how do top sportsbooks see this Monday Night Football showdown playing out? 

Well, as one would expect. It’s cornered with the Chiefs at home, and pretty substantially. Having said that, there’s been movement on the NFL odds board since markets went to press. 

The Chiefs opened as the whopping -7.5 home favorites across NFL betting platforms, but the line has trimmed down to Chiefs -7 at several shops, including BetMGM and Caesars. The total has also moved from an early projected total of 52.5 to 51.5 at these same sportsbooks.

Chiefs vs Raiders Points Spread Pick

The Chiefs are 2-2-0 ATS on the season and just 1-0-0 ATS when favored by a spread of six points or greater (Week 1 vs Cardinals). 

The Chiefs are also 3-1-0 ATS versus the Raiders at home in the Patrick Mahomes era, a run of form that includes outscoring the Raiders 155 to 61. The Raiders, by contrast, are 1-3-0 ATS on the season and 0-1-0 ATS as underdogs (Week 1 vs Chargers). 

By these stats combined, there is a case to lay a touchdown with the Chiefs in this scenario. As well, based on what we’ve seen from these outfits separately so far, the Chiefs are unquestionably a far superior team to the Raiders. 

Just the manner in which they brushed off the disappointment of losing to the Colts 20-17 in Week 3 only to bounce back with a gauntlet-throwing 41-31 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium speaks volumes. They not only showed up Future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady but a legit defense, too.

Nothing about the Raiders instills confidence or suggests they are any different from previous installments or that they can keep up with the high-powered Chiefs offense. Derek Carr and Co. averaging 24 points per game, but most of their scoring has come in garbage time when they were chasing the score. So, even at the risk of a backdoor cover, the Chiefs are the better bet at -7.

Chiefs vs Raiders Over/Under Best Bet

Both teams are coming off high-scoring affairs in Week 4 – the Chiefs overcame the Bucs in a 72-point thriller while the Raiders overcame the Broncos 32-23. 

However, putting stock into this offensive explosion by the Raiders comes with a caveat: the Broncos are underwhelming and simply not living up to their lofty preseason expectations. 

The last time these arch-rivals met at Arrowhead Stadium, the Raiders took a 48-9 spanking. Ouch! In fact, in three of the last four meetings, the Raiders barely whiffed at 10 points. Only once did the Raiders beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead, edging them 40-32 (2020). 

Mahomes is 7-1 SU against the Chiefs since 2018, a run that includes scoring an average of 37.4 points per game. At home, he’s averaging 38.75 points per game against the Raiders. 

There’s no doubt that the Chiefs can and will put up the points in a hurry. That’s underpinned by the fact that the Raiders are conceding an average of 25 points per game (ninth worst in the league). The Raiders’ offense is the wild card here. Nevertheless, the Over 51.5 is the top play here. 

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Chiefs vs Raiders Moneyline Pick

It will take a brave bettor to bet against the Chiefs at home. As sure as the sun is to rise in the morning, the Chiefs winning at home against the Raiders is an almost sure bet for your NFL picks on the moneyline. 

To trot out some of the stats (again): the Chiefs are 3-1 SU this season while the Raiders are a woeful 1-3 SU. The Chiefs are 7-1 SU against the Raiders in the last eight meetings and 3-1 SU at home. 

Moreover, the Chiefs’ dominance goes back to the start of the Andy Reid era. The Chiefs are 15-3 against the Raiders in their last 18 games, a run of form that includes winning three on the trot. 

One could wax lyrical all day long about the Chiefs, but let’s just get straight to it: Back the Chiefs on the moneyline.

Chiefs vs Raiders Player Props

There are plenty of player props to choose from for this game that offer great angles for profit, but as the Raiders appear to have been Mahomes’ personal punching bag over the years, it makes sense that the top props to play involve the elite quarterback. 

The one we’ve settled on here is Mahomes’ passing touchdowns in the game. During Mahomes’ 7-1 SU run against the Raiders, he’s scored 22 touchdowns and three interceptions while passing for an average of 318.3 yards per game.

 His 22 TDs over eight games yield a 2.75 touchdown average per game. Take Mahomes to go Over 2.5 at +135 with DraftKings.

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