Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers host Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs in a marquee primetime showdown in Week 4 of the NFL betting season. Neither team is coming off a very impressive showing; the Buccaneers were beaten at home 14-12 by the Packers, while the Chiefs lost 20-17 at Indianapolis. 

Brady holds a slight 3-2 advantage in the head-to-head matchup with Mahomes, including the last one, a 31-9 romp at Super Bowl 55. Oddsmakers on betting apps have installed Kansas City at -2 in the Chiefs vs. Buccaneers odds, with an Over/Under of 45 points. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who hit on 80% of his NFL picks in Week 3 – reveals his plays for the marquee AFC matchup. 

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Point Spread Pick

Regardless of which team has won the matchups between Brady and Mahomes, the spread winner has been those who backed TB12 – or Jameis Winston. Tampa has covered the last four meetings. 

What makes matters even better for Tampa from a historical perspective: Not only has the home team covered in five of six, the underdog has as well. All these trends point to the Buccaneers. So, too, does a defense that ranks No. 1 in scoring and No. 4 in yards, and an angry Brady that has covered the spread in the last four instances following a loss. Back the Bucs at home on Sunday night. 

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Over/Under Best Bet

Mahomes vs. Brady sounds like a parade of scoring. But both defenses rank in the top 10 in yards allowed. The Chiefs are better when the offense is doing its thing, and Brady is a bounce-back artist. Over the last two seasons, Tampa Bay is averaging 29.4 ppg following a loss. 

The Packers had their way with the Bucs defense in the first half before it hunkered down and blanked Aaron Rodgers in the second half. Expect some scoring, but not a ton of it, from KC. Enough to cover? Yes. Lean toward the Over on Kansas betting apps. 

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Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Moneyline Pick

We like the Buccaneers to cover, so obviously we prefer them on the moneyline on betting sites as well, especially at plus odds for the underdog. The question is, do we prefer the moneyline over the points? 

If we’re getting +2 on the Bucs, no. The Chiefs’ last two games have been decided by three points, the Bucs lost by two points last week. Games are coming down to final kicks more than ever in the NFL this year and in 2021. It wouldn’t be a shock to see one team leading the other by 1-2 points in the final moments, with a heroic drive setting up a game-winning kick. We like the Bucs to win, but would prefer the points. 

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Best Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Player Props

Leonard Fournette, Over 97.5 Total Yards

Odds: -108 at Caesars Sportsbook

That’s a big number for a back who has 74 and 70 the last two games. But the Bucs’ offense has fared way better when Fournette is a part of the run and pass attacks. In the five losses for Tampa over the last two seasons, Fournette averages 61.2 total yards from scrimmage. In the 13 wins, that number is 89.9 with six 100-plus games. KC ranks eight in allowing 68.7 rush yards per game, but 30th in receiving yards to RBs. 

Travis Kelce, Over 64.5 Receiving Yards 

Odds: -108 at BetMGM

Only seven teams have allowed more yards to tight ends through three weeks than the Bucs, only four have allowed more receptions. So here comes Travis Kelce, who in two matchups with the Bucs has 7-for-108 and 8-for-82 efforts under his belt. With Mahomes coming off his worst game of the short season, look for Kelce to get close to 10 targets (he’s had 7 to 9 in the first three games). 

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