Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

By Adam Thompson | | 6 mins

Kyler Murray NFL MVP Odds: Cardinals QB New Favorite; Is There Still Value?

Kyler Murray NFL MVP Odds: Cardinals QB New Favorite; Is There Still Value?
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Kyler Murray already has a stocked trophy case. Could the Arizona Cardinals QB be on the way to adding NFL Most Valuable Player to the collection?

Murray’s stock has soared in NFL futures circles through four weeks of the 2021 NFL season. Once posted at +2300 in NFL MVP odds, Murray is the outright favorite to win MVP at +450 at some betting sites, putting him ahead of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Dak Prescott. (Murray an also be found for +550 – see below).

At those lower odds, does Murray for MVP still have value? Bookies.com breaks down the awards market for the Arizona quarterback. With NFL betting legal and available at Arizona sports betting sites, he’ll likely draw a considerable amount of interest in the Grand Canyon State.


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Kyler Murray Stats Ascending

Murray already has a trove of hardware. In 2018 he won the Heisman Trophy in his final season at Oklahoma. After being selected first overall by the Arizona Cardinals, Murray earned NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2019. Last season, Murray took another step in his game with notable boosts in completion percentage, passing yards and touchdowns, and rushing yards and TDs. Times sacked also dropped by a whopping 21.

Year Comp Att Pct Yds TD INT Rush Yds Rush TDs Sacks
2019 349 542 64.4 3,722 20 12 544 4 48
2020 375 558 67.2 3,971 26 12 819 11 27
2021 102 124 76.1 1,273 9 4 109 3 8

Why did his stats bounce so high in Year 2? For one, the Cardinals gave Murray added weaponry in star WR DeAndre Hopkins. Murray-to-Hopkins accounted for 115 receptions, 1,407 yards and six TDs in 2020.

This offseason, the team added veteran AJ Green and drafted shifty speedster Rondale Moore in the second round. With fellow former second-rounders Andy Isabella and Christian Kirk in the mix, Murray has a wealth of pass weaponry at his disposal, and a run game with Chase Edmonds and James Conners keeps defenses honest, allowing Murray more time to do his thing.

So far, 2021 has been even bigger and better – through the air, anyway. Through four games, Murray has 1,273 pass yards on 76.1% completion rate with 9 TDs and 4 INTs. He’s on pace to shatter most of his marks of a year ago.

In other words, the best could be – even, should be – yet to come for Murray. And the Cardinals. But can he meet oddsmakers’ expectations? Here are Kyler Murray NFL odds in various categories, available at now at top sportsbooks now.

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Kyler Murray NFL MVP Odds

Betting Line: +550 at PointsBet

In June, Murray ranked No. 9 on the NFL MVP Futures board, tied with Justin Herbert but well behind of favorite Patrick Mahomes (+400). The top 13 players are all QBs, which makes sense; the last eight players to win the award have been QBs.

Murray is on pace to throw for 5,410.2 yards in 2021, if he plays all 17 games. That is MVP worthy; the average yardage of MVP QBs over the last eight years is 5,004. Take away the unique MVP year of Lamar Jackson (3,127 yards), and that number leaps to 5,273.

Murray and the Cardinals scored in impressive win against the Rams at SoFi Stadium. The Cardinals were 4-point underdogs and beat a Rams team that had ended Tom Brady's 10-game winning streak a week earlier. The strength of schedule being in the NFC West can’t be discounted. The MVP often goes to the QB that puts up big stats for a playoff team, at worst. Other favorites on betting apps, such as Mahomes and Brady, not to mention Josh Allen (+700) and Dak Prescott (+800) right behind, are on teams more likely to get to the postseason.

Verdict: Even though we found the best value at PointsBet, the value isn’t high anymore, all things considered.

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Kyler Murray NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Betting Line: +1200 at DraftKings

Murray’s Offensive POY odds have finally begun to move in tandem with his MVP odds and have fallen from +2000 to +1200. Talk about value. Murray has a legitimate shot at this one, too.

While the MVP goes to someone, usually a QB, that has a special season on a special team, the Offensive POY often goes to a player who statistically was dominant. It doesn’t have to be on a Super Bowl contender. It doesn’t have to be a quarterback – RB Derrick Henry and WR Michael Thomas are the last two honorees – though seven of the last 12 have been QBs.

Henry (+800) is a worthy favorite, but the Titans have disappointed thus far in 2021 and things could get tougher for Henry to compile big numbers if his team is constantly playing from behind. The Cardinals have made an effort to curtail Murray's runs this season. So, it's unlikely he will be able to break the 4,000 yards passing/1,000 yards rushing barrier. He’s on pace to cruise past 5,000 yards passing.

Murray is second in the NFL in yards passing to - you guessed it - Bucs QB Tom Brady. The GOAT leads the NFL with 1,356 passing yards. Others with a shot at the 5K milestone: Matthew Stafford of the Rams (1,222), Mahomes (1,218) and Derek Carr of the Raiders, who has 1,203 yards passing after just three games.

Murray's total TDs jumped from 24 as a rookie for 36 as a sophomore, too. This year? He’s on pace for 51 scores. Murray will have one of the premier stat sheets. He also has the public on his side thanks to a dynamic game and personality. Henry is the defending Offensive POY, but voters haven’t picked a repeat winner in 20 years.

Verdict: Great value on the current odds. Bet it below at DraftKings.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com.