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NFL MVP Odds 2023-24

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Looking for a sound bet in the MVP race? Start at quarterback. A man under center has won the last nine years. The only non-QB to win it since 2006 was Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (2012). Only QBs and RBs have won the award since 1986.

The last nine NFL MVPs have been won by eight different players. Among those in that elite group: Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton and Aaron Rogers, who has won four overall, including in 2021.

Since the award started in 1961, no wide receiver has ever won it. Only two defensive players have taken the award – Giants LB Lawrence Taylor in 1986 and Vikings DT Alan Page in 1971. Washington kicker Mark Moseley won it in 1982.

MVPs coming from winning teams. Over the last 20 years, no NFL MVP came from a team that finished worse than 10-6 in the regular season. They don’t have to be Super Bowl favorites, but they need to be on a contender.

Rodgers Going For MVP Three-Peat

The Green Bay Packers quarterback accomplished another milestone in his NFL Hall of Fame career in 2021, winning back-to-back NFL MVP awards. Rodgers passed for 37 TDs with just four INTs and guided the Packers to the best record in the NFL regular season. The year before, he threw for 48 TDs and five INTs.

Rodgers became only the fourth player in NFL history to win consecutive MVPs, joining Peyton Manning (2008 and 2009), Brett Favre (1995, 96, 97) and Joe Montana (1989, 90).

Only the aforementioned Favre has won the award three times in a row. Rodgers’ offseason drama is behind him after signing a deal that should keep No. 12 in the green and gold until he retires, but he’ll go this year without All-Pro WR Davante Adams, who was traded to the Raiders.

There’s no discounting the ability of Rodgers, who some other QBs have called the most gifted passer in history. But age and personnel – and the law of averages – suggest 2022 may be someone else’s time.

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Patrick Mahomes II, Tom Brady In Contention

Patrick Mahomes has some bouncing back to do if he’s to be considered a favorite for the 2022 NFL MVP – which he is. To be sure, Mahomes is one of the elite QBs in the league, but his extraordinarily high expectations were not met in 2021, when the Chiefs star threw for 37 TDs (far below the 50 TDs thrown during his MVP season of 2018) and a career-high 13 INTs.

Now, he must forge on without his top target, WR Tyreek Hill, who was traded to the Dolphins in the offseason. Travis Kelce is still there and the Chiefs reloaded with other receiving weapons.

The ageless Tom Brady, on the other hand, had one of his best seasons. Brady, 44, led the NFL in attempts, completions, yards and touchdowns, ultimately finishing second to Rodgers in MVP voting (if you’re wondering why, he was eighth in QB rating).

Brady retired, then un-retired for another run at a ring, and nearly all of his favorite targets return as well. Tampa Bay has a new head coach in Todd Bowles, known for being a great defensive mind. Does that affect Brady’s MVP chances? Time will tell.

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Josh Allen, Justin Herbert Emerge

Josh Allen finally “arrived” in 2020 and quarterbacked the Bills into the AFC Championship Game. He finished a distant second to Rodgers in the MVP voting. Last year his numbers dipped – 36 TDs, 15 INTs, 25 fewer yards per game and a QB rating 15 points lower. But oddsmakers aren’t buying the downturn. Allen is the preseason favorite to win 2022 NFL MVP, just ahead of Brady and Mahomes.

Right below those three you'll find Rodgers and Justin Herbert, the Los Angeles Chargers third-year QB who continues to ascend. In 2020, Herbert set the all-time rookie record for TD passes (31) and completions (396), while throwing for 4,336 yards in just 15 games to earn Rookie of the Year honors. In Year Two, he passed for over 5,000 yards and 38 TDs, seven more than the year before, and earned his first Pro Bowl nod.

Just as important, the Chargers went from six wins his rookie season to nine in 2021, just missing the playoffs. With additional team success and a similar jump in statistics, Herbert will be firmly in the MVP conversation come December.

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Our Pick to Win NFL MVP in 2022

There are handful of contenders who make reasonable choices this year. Players need stats and success, which means a winning team and one that offers the opportunity to throw often.

Some of our favorites include QBs not even mentioned above. Joe Burrow, in his first full season, led the Cincinnati Bengals to the Super Bowl. His 105.9 QB rating ranked second only to Rodgers. He’s surrounded by weapons and will drop back early and often behind what should be a vastly-improved offensive line.

Matthew Stafford was third in QB rating and led the Rams to the Super Bowl in his first season in L.A. Dak Prescott tossed 37 TDs to only 10 INTs and led the Cowboys to an 12-5 record. A true dark horse could emerge, perhaps the Raiders’ Derek Carr, who now has a bona fide No. 1 WR to throw to in Adams. Russell Wilson, now of the Denver Broncos, or Matt Ryan, now of the Indianapolis Colts, are others to consider.

Our money, however, is going to Burrow. At +1200 preseason NFL MVP odds, we see considerable value. Burrow led the NFL in completion percentage and yards per attempt. His yards and TD/INT numbers were high enough and should be even higher as he builds upon his first full season of action. Cincy is a contender and Burrow – who had arguably the greatest season in college football history in 2019 – has the makeup of the next great QB.

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