By Adam Thompson | | 8 mins
Miami Dolphins At New Orleans Saints Free Picks & MNF Predictions
The 2021 NFL Playoffs don’t begin until Jan. 15, but don’t tell that to the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints, who face off in a must-win game for both sides on Monday Night Football.
The Week 16 finale is huge for both sides. Both the Dolphins and Saints sit at 7-7; a loss could put any postseason hopes on life support, especially for a Miami team that enters the week one game out of a spot and doesn’t own any key head-to-head tiebreakers.
When it comes to NFL spreads in this inter-conference clash, the line has moved toward Miami since opening at +3.5, while the total has dipped.
Check out the latest Dolphins vs Saints odds, betting lines, injury report and more.
Dolphins vs. Saints Key Matchups
Taysom Hill vs. Dolphins Run Defense: Hill has 11 carries in each of his first three starts. Miami ranks seventh in fewest rushing yards allowed to QBs.
Saints Ball Handlers vs. Dolphins Ball Hawkers: New Orleans is 5-0 when it doesn’t turn the ball over and 2-7 when it does. Miami has forced 12 turnovers the last six games.
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Saints DBs: Tua’s 74.4% completion percentage during Miami’s five-game win streak is tops in that span. His 69.9% rate on the whole season ranks No. 1 in the league. New Orleans’ 61.7% allowed is seventh-lowest.
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5 Key Dolphins vs. Saints Stats
3.4: Yards per rush attempt by the Dolphins this season. Only the Texans gain fewer per rush. The Saints allow 3.8 yards per attempt, the fewest in the NFL.
5: TDs allowed on the ground to opposing running backs by the Saints; only the Patriots (4) have allowed fewer. Miami RBs have only 11 TDs this season, but four in the last three games.
50: The yards threshold for Saints RB Alvin Kamara and team success. New Orleans is 6-1 when Kamara gains over 50 yards on the ground, and 1-2 when he’s under.
172.1: Receiving yards per game allowed to WRs by the Dolphins defense, fifth-most in the NFL.
175.1: Receiving yards per game allowed to WRs by the Saints. That’s the third-most.
Dolphins vs. Saints Weather Forecast
There is no weather forecast for the game inside the Caesars Superdome, home of the Saints. The walk to the stadium won’t be bad, either, with highs in the upper 70s and cloudy but dry skies. Miami has yet to win a game on turf this season.
Dolphins vs Saints Player Props
Tua Tagovailoa, Over 231.5 Pass Yards
Odds: -110 at BetMGM
The Saints are great vs. the run but among the worst at covering WRs. Tua is going to need to air it out for the Miami offense to move the ball. This marks only the fourth game he’ll have DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle healthy and in the lineup together.
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Marquez Callaway, Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
Odds: -115 at DraftKings
Callaway has the highest total of any Saints WR, and it’s not very high. But Ian Book has to throw to someone; Miami has a stellar rush defense and will dare New Orleans to get the ball to someone other than Alvin Kamara. Callaway had nine receptions for 112 yards last week.
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Mark Ingram, Over 1.5 Receptions
Odds: -105 at FOX Bet
Ingram is playing roughly 50% of snaps these days, and he’s actually hauled in two receptions in seven of the last eight Saints games. With Miami’s run defense its strength and a conservative offensive strategy for Book’s offense, look for dump-off passes to RBs. Kamara’s 5.5 receptions total is questionable, but Ingram’s line is low.
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Dolphins vs. Saints Moneyline
The Saints are -165 favorites on the moneyline, meaning it would take a $165 wager to win $100 in profit. Conversely, underdog Miami is +145 (a $100 bet means $145 in profit). A strong majority of moneyline picks at sportsbooks have sided with New Orleans so far.
That’s because one must consider strength of schedule for Miami’s six-game win streak. The Dolphins did a fine job shutting down Lamar Jackson in a 22-10 win over the Ravens, but the other five wins were against the Jets twice, Texans, Panthers and Giants. New Orleans just blanked Tom Brady and the Buccaneers and have generally played well vs. teams that don’t have overpowering offenses. Miami qualifies.
The Saints are in a good spot to cover, but there is some value in taking the home team to win straight up, too.
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Dolphins vs. Saints Point Spread
The Saints are at -3, down from -3.5 as money came in on the Dolphins with the hook.
Since Week 1, the Dolphins have had just four road games, losing three of them by at least three and failing to cover at -10 vs. the Jets. The Saints had dropped four straight before winning their last two, but that’s how long it took to get used to dual-threat Taysom Hill under center.
The defense has really stepped up, too. Those looking for Monday night NFL betting action should jump on New Orleans against the spread.
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Dolphins vs. Saints Totals
The Over/Under for Monday Night Football sits at 39, easily the lowest total of the week. Even the Jets vs. Jaguars debacle has an O/U of 41.5. The low number is warranted, however. Seven of the last nine Miami games have gone Under, the two exceptions being totals of 42 and 41.
New Orleans’ defense has performed far better than its offense with only one of its last four games going over 39 points. Miami shut down Lamar and the Ravens, giving them confidence it can do the same to Taysom and the Saints. We have confidence in a slugfest. The Under is worth adding to your NFL picks lineup for Week 16.
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