Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills look to take that next step and play in a Super Bowl, but the quest starts on Sunday when the Bills host the Miami Dolphins for Wild Card Weekend. 

The Bills (13-3) have won seven straight heading into their third matchup with the Dolphins (9-8), who had dropped five in a row before an 11-6 must-win game in Week 18 against the Jets. QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) will miss this playoff opener. 

Oddsmakers for NFL betting sites have shifted the spread for this one with that news; Buffalo is at -13 in the latest Dolphins vs. Bills odds, from -10 to open. The Over/Under is at 43.5 points. Miami held its own against mighty Buffalo in two regular-season matchups, winning the opener 21-19 and falling just 32-29 in New York. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – focused on hitting over 60% of his NFL picks for a fourth-consecutive season – reveals his picks and props for the rubber match to advance. 

Dolphins vs. Bills Point Spread Pick

Buffalo hasn’t lost a game in two months; only two of those wins were by double-figures, though they were the last two. Miami goes with Skylar Thompson again at QB with Tua and Teddy Bridgewater both out. 

Thompson isn’t terrible, but he’s not Tua. At Buffalo, against the No. 2 scoring defense in the NFL, Miami may not get to more than 13-16 points. 

That’s not going to cut it on Sunday. Buffalo ranks No. 2 in total offense as well, and its 31.9 ppg at home ranks second to Detroit. Couple that with Miami’s horrid road defense – the Dolphins allow 15.5 ppg at home, 30.6 ppg on the road – and the Bills should cruise. Take Buffalo laying nearly two TDs. 

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Dolphins vs. Bills Over/Under Best Bet

Thompson gets the nod here for Miami, bad news for an offense that managed 11 points last week in a must-win game vs. the average Jets. In two starts, he has yet to throw a touchdown. 

Buffalo will find a way to win, but the most-likely scenario is the Dolphins will struggle to score. Miami’s defense can hang long enough, though it’s been a shell of itself on the road this season. We’re not all-in on the Under, but that’s the lean. 

Dolphins vs. Bills Moneyline Pick

Buffalo is finding its form lately, which is impressive because it’s won eight straight. Miami scraped into the postseason thanks to the Patriots’ loss to the Bills but won’t have its QB. The Bills on the moneyline, however, is a prohibitive -850 at betting sites. 

We’re not going to bet on Miami, despite the +600 price at sports betting apps and its competitiveness against the Bills this season. If we’re using any part of this moneyline, it will be with Buffalo as part of a weekend parlay. Toss the Bills, 49ers and perhaps the Vikings together for more reasonable risk. 

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Best Dolphins vs. Bills Player Props

Josh Allen, Over 258.5 Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

The main concern is this game could get out of hand and Buffalo could take the gas off the pedal. That’s about the only concern, however. 

In two games vs. Miami, both close, Allen passed for 400 and 304 yards. Only once in six career playoff games has he finished under 264 yards. This is his time, and against an opponent he should be very confident playing. 

Tyreek Hill, Over 62.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

Hill was shut down by the Bills in the opening matchup with two receptions for 33 yards, but had nine catches for 69 in the second one. 

If Miami is to have a chance, it must get the ball into the hands of the most-dynamic player on the field. Hill has finished Over 65 yards in 12 of 17 games. He needs 10 touches. If he gets close to that, he’s Over this number. 

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