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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Free Picks & MNF Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 8 mins

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Free Picks & MNF Predictions

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It’s the game of the week for NFL Week 13, and the inside track at an AFC East championship is in play as Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills host Mac Jones and the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. Buffalo (7-4) boasts the league’s top-ranked defense and fifth-ranked offense, while New England (8-4) has won six in a row and is unbeaten on the road.

Betting sites and betting apps have Buffalo as a slim 2.5-point home favorite, with an Over/Under of 43.5 points in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds.

This is one of the NFL spreads that has moved a full point from an opening line of Bills -3.5, and a total that’s dropped from 46.

Take a look at Bills vs. Patriots odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Patriots vs. Bills Key Matchups

Dawson Knox vs. Pats LBs: Knox has seven TDs, and when the TE scores, the Bills are 5-0. When he doesn’t, they’re 1-3. New England allows the fewest receptions per game to TEs (3.0) and second-fewest yards (29.5).

Josh Allen’s Legs vs. Patriots Containers: New England has given up just 117 total rushing yards to QBs this season – just 9.8 per game. Allen has gained at least 43 yards in four of the last seven games and at least nine yards in all but one.

Mac Jones’ Brain vs. Bills Top Defense: No team allows fewer passing yards than Buffalo (189.1). That said, the Patriots are 5-0 when Jones passes for under 220, and 3-4 when he needs to go over that number.

RELATED: NFL Week 13 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games

5 Key Patriots vs. Bills Stats

4: TDs allowed to running backs by the Patriots. No team has allowed fewer. The Bills have 15 scores from their ground game.

8: TD passes allowed by the Bills defense. That’s six fewer than any other team.

14: TD passes allowed by the Patriots defense. That’s tied for the second-fewest.

35: Combined interceptions by the Buffalo and New England defenses. The Patriots (19) and Bills (16) rank No. 1 and No. 2 in the NFL.

1,924: Total yards allowed to running backs by the Patriots. Only the Seahawks and Jets have allowed more.

RELATED: NFL Week 13 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game

Patriots vs. Bills Weather Forecast

Monday night in Buffalo in December can mean snow, and sure enough there is a 50% chance of the white stuff falling the morning of the game. The high that day is only 40 degrees, with temps falling into the low 30s in the evening and 10-20 mph winds. It’s going to be a cold one, but we’re confident the Bills Mafia will find a way to stay warm.

Patriots vs. Bills Player Props

Stefon Diggs, Over 61.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Diggs last season had receiving totals of 92 and 145 yards vs. the Patriots. The New England defense is stellar vs. the pass, but Josh Allen has to, and will, throw it to someone. Diggs is most likely to be the recipient.

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Damien Harris, Under 54.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Harris is essentially splitting duty now with Rhamondre Stevenson, who has 71 more yards on 18 fewer attempts the last few weeks. Trends favor Stevenson – or neither, against a Buffalo defense that’s allowing 96 ypg rushing.

Dawson Knox Under 33.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Knox has surpassed 33 receiving yards just once in the last four games, despite catching every ball thrown his way those three games. He’s become a diminished part of the offense and the Patriots have the NFL’s top defense vs. TEs.

Patriots vs. Bills Moneyline

The Bills are -145 favorites on the moneyline, meaning it would take a $145 wager to win $100 in profit. Conversely, underdog New England is +115 (a $100 bet means $115 in profit). A strong majority of moneyline picks at sportsbooks have sided with New England so far.

That’s because there is value in a team that’s playing as well as any in the NFL, and certainly better than a Bills squad that is 3-3 in its last six. The Pats have won six in a row and won every road game. Buffalo has feasted on the weak but struggled against playoff-worthy competition, and coach Bill Belichick’s Pats qualify. New England at plus odds is the play here.

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Patriots vs. Bills Point Spread

While online sports betting in New York is not live yet, those looking to back the Bills have seen the spread slide from -3.5 down to -2.5. It’s because the Patriots are simply playing better right now. Let’s not count out Buffalo quite yet. It covered every game last December as cold weather set in, and has covered four of five home games vs. above-.500 road teams. We know what Josh Allen and the offense is capable of, it’s just a matter of if they find their rhythm. The BetMGM Sportsbook is offering a dynamite sign-up offer with a $1,000 risk-free bet when you sign up with the BetMGM bonus code.

That said, Allen has tossed seven INTs in the last four games. Patriots QB Mac Jones has tossed two. The Patriots run game is performing better. Its defense has been dominant. The team thrives together on the road. We like New England on the moneyline for the value, but for those looking for a little Monday night NFL betting action, taking the points is sound especially if it rises back to +3.

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Patriots vs. Bills Totals

The Over/Under for Monday Night Football sits at 43.5. With how each team’s games have gone lately, the Over appears more sound. At least one team has scored 34 points in seven of the 11 Bills games so far. This is the lowest total of the season for a Buffalo game. Nobody has been scoring on the Patriots lately, yet two of their last three have gone for 49 or more and six of their last eight have finished over 46.

Still, we’re not betting against a Patriots team that’s allowed 26 points over the last four games, and we’re not going against a Bills defense that allows fewer yards than any other squad. The Under is worth adding to your NFL picks lineup for Week 13.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.