Week 13 of the NFL betting season arrives with several key games that will certainly impact playoff seeding in January. And nothing to fear.

As Sun Tzu might have said if he ever ventured into a sportsbook: “All Great Bets Are Won Or Lost Before They Are Made.”

Luck, or the lack of it, is impossible to define. One man’s lucky play is another man’s result of scouting, skill and execution.

This is not a week for frivolity or triskaidekaphobia ("the fear of 13"). For several NFL teams, it’s an opportunity to get serious about the postseason and season win-and-loss totals. Potential playoff teams facing teams focusing on 2022 offers a perilous choice when making NFL picks. The challenge of COVID-19 protocols mixed with the potential of more injuries because of a longer season has added a level of difficulty for bettors and oddsmakers.

Thus far in 2021, the 7-4 Cincinnati Bengals (6.5) and the 9-2 Arizona Cardinals (8.5) are the only two NFL teams to surpass their projected preseason win totals at DraftKings Sportsbook. No team has yet to be knocked out of contention in terms of going over their 2021 win number. The Seattle Seahawks, at 3-8, clinched the under on their win total of 10 after losing to Washington Monday night.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 7-4. One more loss in the 17-game season will clinch the under on their projected total of 12.5 wins.

This week, the 8-4 Titans can tie their preseason win total of 9. And the 6-7 Raiders can do the same with their win number of seven. The Patriots are 8-4. Their win total moved to 9.5 up from 9 in the weeks leading up the season kickoff.

RELATED: NFL Week 13 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games

Patriots, Bills Meet In Monday Night Showdown

In the AFC, the Patriots and 8-4 Bills meet for the first time this season Monday night. The winner will lead in the AFC East, and possibly own the top seed in the AFC heading into Week 14. The Patriots are marching like an army of Imperial Storm Troopers, following their hoodied leader Lord Vader back into NFL relevance after a year in Cam Newton/COVID-19/Salary Cap/Post-Tom Brady Hangover purgatory. New England is also 8-4 ATS after ripping off six straight covers during their winning streak.

In another prime-time game, the Chiefs will play host to the 6-5 Denver Broncos Sunday night. Denver has won three of four since losing four straight. A win by the Broncos would upend the AFC West.

There are three double-digit spreads in the NFL Week 13 lines at top sports betting sites and sportsbooks in the US, up from zero last week. CBS has the national double-header this week, with Jim and Tony likely calling the Ravens-Steelers late Sunday afternoon game in Pittsburgh. The early Sunday schedule has seven games. The week begins with Dallas at New Orleans on Thursday night.

Now, it’s on to our Week 13 picks.

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Thursday, Dec. 2

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints, 8:20 p.m. (FOX)

Neither the Saints nor Cowboys have won a game since Week 10. The Cowboys are doing their best to confirm everyone’s fears about their lack of experience if/when they reach the playoffs. Their disastrous home loss to the Raiders on Thanksgiving was followed with the news that head coach Mike McCarthy, among others in the organization, have tested positive for COVID-19. The Saints are 0-4 with Trevor Siemian as their starting QB and now rank 27th in total offense. Taysom Hill can’t get healthy soon enough. These two teams will do their best to run the ball and keep the other off the field.

Best Bet: Saints +5.5 (-110) at BetMGM

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Sunday, Dec. 5

New York Giants at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m. (FOX)

The Dolphins are swimming upstream in the AFC but have won four straight. They’ve settled on Tua Tagovailoa as their starting quarterback. That confidence is showing on the stat sheet. Tua has thrown just 10 incompletions in his past two starts. Teams from the Northeast often struggle in South Florida in December. And they didn’t have Mike Glennon at quarterback. Unless you're a die-hard New York sports betting fan, give the Giants a miss this week.

Best Bet: Dolphins ML (-140) at BetRivers

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, 1 p.m. (CBS)

The Colts are primed for a rebound win this week. The Texans are playing for draft position. Jonathan Taylor should make the sure the Colts won’t have to rely on Carson Wentz to do anything more than limit himself to just one interception. This NFL line might have been 11 or 12 points had this game been played last month.

Best Bet: Colts -8.5 (-110) at BetMGM

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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. (CBS)

The Lions are the betting upside surprise of 2021, going 7-4 ATS despite not winning a game in 51 weeks. The Lions have had five games decided by three or fewer points. Four were losses and one was a tie. The Vikings won’t have RB Dalvin Cook. But Minnesota won its two previous games without Cook this season. We’re riding with the Lions ATS on the top sports betting apps in the US.

Best Bet: Lions +7 (-110) at BetMGM

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Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Terrible meets awful. Both teams tripped on their way to potential top three draft picks next season. The Jets inexplicably have won two games in a month. The Eagles were on the border of the verge of the edge of the outer most limits of playoff consideration before stumbling over a sidewalk crack in a 13-7 loss to the Giants.

Best Bet: Under 45.5 Points (-110) at FanDuel

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Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. (FOX)

The Cardinals have not had Kyler Murray for their past three games but they remain the No. 1 team in the NFL. WR DeAndre Hopkins and Murray are both expected to be back after the Cardinals were on a bye in Week 12. Once interesting side bet: Will Kliff Kingsbury be named as Oklahoma head coach before the Bears fire head coach Matt Nagy? The guy who won your Fantasy League last season could handle the Cardinals in this one. Arizona sports betting fans have been riding the Cardinals on the road to great success. That should continue.

Best Bet: Cardinals -7 (-115) at BetMGM

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Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Two teams that have been toying with excellence but settling for mediocrity all season. The Bengals once had the best record in the AFC. The Chargers held first place in the AFC West just four weeks ago. Both teams have stellar second-year QBs and appear ready to make the big leap – next season. Each team has gone 2-2 in their past four games. Joey B. gets the nod in chilly Cincinnati.

Best Bet: Bengals ML (-152) at FanDuel

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Rob Gronkowski is back and so are the 8-3 Buccaneers, who have covered four of five previous double-digit lines this season. Tom Brady has a security blanket with Gronkowski, one that he lacks even with the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The acquisition of Leonard Fournette in 2020 may be the single most lop-sided deal in NFL history given his production since arriving Tampa Bay. In Week 12, “Touchdown Lenny” scored four times. Brady leads the NFL with 30 TDs passes and trails Derek Carr by a dozen yards for the outright NFL passing lead. The Falcons beat the Jaguars in Week 12, but we only count wins against NFL teams. A small but very pro Buccaneers crowd in Atlanta won’t hurt the Super Bowl champs here, either.

Best Bet: Buccaneers -10.5 (-105) at FanDuel

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Matthew Stafford must be wearing a Lions t-shirt beneath his Rams jersey. Stafford has thrown three pick-6 INTs in the past three weeks, all losses for the “all-in” Rams. Desperate times call for desperate measures, or facing the Jaguars at home on the West Coast.

Best Bet: Under 48 Points (-110) at DraftKings

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Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Carr leads the NFL in passing yards, the Raiders are sixth in total offense, averaging 385.6 YPG. Las Vegas nuked Dallas on Thanksgiving Day with 509 yards in a 36-33 triumph. The Raiders would have had four more off days between games here than Washington, which played Monday night in Week 12.

Best Bet: Under 40 Points (-109) at BetRivers

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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Lamar Jackson threw four picks – but still won – in Week 12. Ben Roethlisberger threw two, including a pick-6, in the Steelers 41-10 loss to the Bengals. Pittsburgh swept Baltimore last year. The Ravens don’t appear like much on paper or on the stat sheet, but they know how to win. Can they do it Pittsburgh?

Best Bet: Pittsburgh +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

The 49ers appear to have figured out whatever was holding them back. The Seahawks' home-field advantage won’t mean much here, given their plight.

Best Bet: 49ers ML (-135) at PointsBet

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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Teddy Bridgewater has the best record against the spread of any veteran NFL QB for a reason – games just like this. The Chiefs have won four straight but are far from invincible against the line. The Chiefs defense has improved tremendously as the season has progressed. And Kansas City has beaten their AFC West rival Denver 11 straight times, including four straight wins over current Broncos coach Vic Fangio. But this line is a bit steep.

Best Bet: Broncos +10 (-110) at DraftKings

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Monday, Dec. 6

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

The biggest game of Week 13 falls on Monday night. These teams meet again in three weeks, after the Patriots take their bye and face the Colts. The Patriots have won and covered for six straight weeks. Bill Belichick will have Mac Jones and his defense ready for the best of Josh Allen. The Bills have been favored in 10 of 11 weeks this season and are 7-4 straight up and ATS. Their season has been one of extremes. This game is likely to join the 40 already played this season that have been decided in the final two minutes or in overtime.

Best Bet: Patriots +3 (-105) at FanDuel

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Teams on Bye Week: Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Tennessee Titans

2021 Record

Last Week: 10-5

Season: 99-78-1

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