New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns Odds, TNF Best Bets & Predictions

By Adam Thompson

Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EST

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Joe Flacco and the surging Cleveland Browns hope to clinch a postseason berth as they host Sauce Gardner and the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football for Week 17.

The Browns (10-5) have won three in a row and return home, where they’re 7-1 in the Dawg Pound. The Jets (6-9) are out of the playoff race, so it won’t be Aaron Rodgers under center as hoped, or Zach Wilson, or even Tim Boyle, but practice squad call-up Trevor Siemian.

Cleveland is favored by 7.5 points in the latest Jets vs. Browns NFL odds, with a modest Over/Under of 35 points.

Bookies.com veteran NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on a whopping 62-64% of his NFL picks three years running, reveals his plays for this week’s Thursday showdown.

Jets vs. Browns Odds

Jets vs. Browns Point Spread Pick

The Browns defense, at home, is as tough as it gets. So it’s worth wondering how the Jets score any points unless Joe Flacco helps them out considerably (which is always possible). The point is, the Browns should move the ball enough against a Jets defense that gave up 28 points to Jacoby Brissett last week vs. Washington.

The Browns are a perfect 5-0 ATS as home favorites and 7-1 ATS at home overall. The Jets have just a single road cover all year. With one team motivated to push and the other perhaps more motivated to stay healthy for the off-season, don’t expect a big push for a backdoor cover. Back the Browns to cover as the top play for TNF.

Jets vs. Browns Over/Under Best Bet

The total has dropped from the opening line of 36.5 points, and for good reason. Neither team has been good at moving the ball on the ground, and the Browns have abandoned the run game altogether. Meanwhile, these teams rank No. 1 and No. 2 in the NFL in fewest pass yards allowed. It might be tough for either team to get going.

The Browns may not score much, but the Jets may not score at all with an offense that is averaging 7.8 ppg in its last four road games. If the Browns hit around 20, don’t expect any more than 10 from New York. Back the Under as a solid secondary play on Thursday.

Jets vs. Browns Moneyline Pick

The Browns are -345 on the moneyline, meaning it would take a $354 wager on Cleveland to win $100 in profit. The Jets are at +275 (wager $100 to win $275 in profit).

Neither side sounds appealing. Cleveland should win and we’re picking the Browns to cover the spread, but in what could be a low-scoring game, a few ill-time Flacco INTs could shock the system.

The price is too high to back the Browns here, and we’re certainly not backing the Jets. We greatly prefer spread and total sides.

Jets vs. Browns Top Player Props

Joe Flacco, Over 230.5 Pass Yards

Odds: -120 at BetMGM

Flacco has passed for 254 yards in all four starts, and 374 and 368 yards in the last two. The Jets’ defense is great at slowing the pass, but all Cleveland does now is chuck the ball 45 times per game, and it’s working. He’s getting chunk yards, and we’re riding the wave. Back to another big night from Flacco and get the best odds for it at BetMGM.

Kareem Hunt, Anytime TD

Odds: +190 at ESPN BET

Only the Ravens have allowed fewer pass TDs than the Jets. But they’ve allowed eight rushing TDs in the last five games. The Browns’ run game is barely a factor at all, but by the goal line, it’s delivered. Hunt (eight TDs) is the guy inside the 5 for the Browns over Jerome Ford (four rush TDs). Hunt’s TD odds are far higher than Ford’s +120, so we’ll back Hunt with these high odds found at ESPN BET.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.