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Next NFL Team To Win 1st Super Bowl Odds: Will The Bills Take Home The Trophy?

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 4 mins

Next NFL Team To Win 1st Super Bowl Odds: Will The Bills Take Home The Trophy?

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Even casual NFL fans can name teams that have won a Super Bowl, especially those with multiple championships. The New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers and New York Giants have each won at least four of them. 

On the other side of the spectrum are 12 teams that have yet to reach the ultimate destination. Some have waited a very long time – the Arizona Cardinals have been around for 76 yards in one city other another and are still waiting. The Houston Texans have been around 21 yards and haven’t won an AFC Championship, let alone a Lombardi Trophy. 

Eventually, at least a few of these 12 teams will take home their first-ever title. But which will get off the shelf first? 

Bookies.com veteran oddsmaker Adam Thompson was tasked with creating NFL odds for those 12 teams. Which of those teams will be first to take their name off the “best to never win it” list? 

Next NFL Team To Win First Super Bowl Odds

NFL TeamOddsImplied Probability
Buffalo Bills+35022.2%
Cincinnati Bengals+45018.2%
Los Angeles Chargers+75011.8%
Cleveland Browns+90010.0%
Detroit Lions+10009.1%
Houston Texans+10009.1%
Jacksonville Jaguars+12007.7%
Tennessee Titans+14006.7%
Atlanta Falcons+18005.3%
Minnesota Vikings+20004.8%
Arizona Cardinals+30003.2%
Carolina Panthers+30002.0%

These odds are for entertainment purposes only and do not reflect odds that may be available on legal betting apps.

Who Will Take Home The Lombardi Trophy?

Seven of the 12 teams on the list were at least in the running for a postseason berth in Week 18 of the 2023 season. That doesn’t include the Cincinnati Bengals, who lost star QB Joe Burrow early in the year. 

The Bills and Bengals each seem to be in a spot to contend for championships for the next several seasons. Each has a go-to QB (Burrow for Cincy, Josh Allen for Buffalo). The Bills have had reliable defenses, too. 

The Bengals have more issues on the defensive front, and questions to answer in upcoming free-agency periods, giving Buffalo the edge.

The Chargers were expected to take a step forward behind QB Justin Herbert. But the defense devolved into one of the NFL’s bottom-ranked units, and defense-minded coach Brandon Staley was fired mid-season. 

On paper, L.A. should contend in the coming years – if a coach can put it together. The team is already mired in salary cap trouble for 2024, however, the Lions have ascended with Dan Campbell as coach, while the Browns are back in the playoffs despite relying on the semi-retired Joe Flacco. 


RELATED: Los Angeles Chargers Next Coach Odds: Will Harbaugh Take The Job?


Detroit has a huge decision to make with Jared Goff, who becomes a free agent after 2024. With one of the premier defenses in football, Cleveland may be in a better spot, if Deshaun Watson can find his form in the coming seasons. 

Based on how he played in 2023 before a season-ending injury, that’s a big if. 

AFC South rivals Texans and Jaguars each appear heading in the right direction, behind young QBs CJ Stroud and Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars appear to be slightly ahead of the Texans on the curve, but the rapid rise of Houston could push it past J’ville if the team continues on its trajectory. 

It’s tough to determine what direction the Falcons are trending. Who have finished with 7-8 wins in each of Arthur Smith’s three seasons. QB play continues to be an issue. 

The Titans presumably have their QB of the future in Will Levis. But there are issues all over the place elsewhere on a team that didn’t rank in the Top 13 in any offensive or defensive key categories. 

At least they have a QB, and they have nearly $80 million in available cap space for 2024 to continue the big build. 

The Vikings are likely to lose Kirk Cousins to free agency, which could signal the start of a rebuild in the Twin Cities. The Cardinals have Kyler Murray, but a defense with a ton of holes. The Panthers secured the NFL’s worst record for the second year in a row but don’t own their own No. 1 pick. They appear to be a long way’s off. Test.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.