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Next Raiders QB Odds: Bridgewater, Wentz or ... Brady?!

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 5 mins

Next Raiders QB Odds: Bridgewater, Wentz or ... Brady?!

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Jimmy Garoppolo was slated to be the man under center for the Las Vegas Raiders for the 2023 NFL season after the team signed up to a three-year, $72 million deal this off-season. 

But a lingering foot injury has caused a bump in the road. Garoppolo has surgery on that foot in March, then technically “failed” his physical before signing with Vegas. The Raiders gave the QB an injury waiver, which is not uncommon when signing rehabbing free agents. 

Now it’s been revealed the Raiders can cut Garoppolo at no cost if he can't pass a physical. He has yet to do so, opening the chances that someone else is leading the Raiders in Week 1 against the Broncos. 

Bookies.com veteran oddsmaker Adam Thompson has used his resources of NFL contacts developed over 20 years covering the league to create his hypothetical NFL futures odds on the Week 1 starter for the Raiders. 

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Las Vegas Raiders Week 1 Starting QB Odds

QBOddsImplied Probability
Jimmy Garoppolo+17536.4%
Carson Wentz+50016.7%
Teddy Bridgewater+55015.4%
Brian Hoyer+75011.8%
Jameis Winston+80011.1%
Trey Lance+12007.7%
Tom Brady+20004.8%
The Field+62513.8%

This market is for entertainment purposes only and has been created by the Bookies.com team. It is not currently available on betting apps. Percentages will not add up to 100% most time because these are designed to simulate odds a sportsbook would set.

Raiders Week 1 QB Options

Garoppolo did nothing but win with the 49ers. He was an astonishing 40-17 as a starter, leading them to one Super Bowl berth. San Francisco went 8-3 last year before a foot injury ended his season. Brock Purdy took over, and the rest was history for Garoppolo's stint in the Bay Area. 

Garoppolo had surgery in March with a recovery time of around three months. If the Raiders have any trepidation that the QB may not be ready for Week 1, or ever get to 100%, the door is open for Vegas to be proactive. Even if Jimmy G will eventually be OK, if he isn’t ready to roll by training camp, it may delay his season debut. 

Raiders coach Josh McDaniels said Garoppolo may not be ready until late July to practice with the team. In the rough-and-tumble AFC West, Vegas can’t sit back and wait, especially with an important divisional game in the opener. 

Free agency still has two QBs with bona fide starter backgrounds, though injury concerns have kept them both on the market. 

Carson Wentz went just 2-5 as a starter in his one-and-only season with Commanders, and was released in the off-season. Wentz has 92 starts under his belt, and was third in NFL MVP voting in 2017 and top-five in AP Player of the Year honors in 2019. 

Teddy Bridgewater started 29 games in 2020-21 for the Panthers and Broncos. He backed up Tua Tagovailoa in Miami last year, but didn’t finish either of his two starts due to injury. 

Wentz and Bridgewater will each turn 31 this coming season, but adding either one would be the easiest, and best, addition without giving up anything in a trade. One caveat: The Raiders are only $4.5 million above the salary cap. Wentz or Bridgewater may have to make financial concessions, but the decision would keep his career alive. 

Veteran Brian Hoyer is the top in-house candidate, but that’s not saying a ton. The 13-year veteran has just 108 pass attempts the last five seasons, and an 0-3 record as a starter. 

The trade market offers other possibilities. 

Trey Lance was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, but injuries have limited his opportunities. Lance couldn’t beat out Garoppolo, then Purdy took over and now owns the QB1 mantra in San Francisco.

Lance could be trade bait for the Niners, but if the Raiders have any respect for Garoppolo, brining on the man drafted to replace him in another town isn’t the best option from a chemistry standpoint. 

Jameis Winston is out of a starting spot in New Orleans with Derek Carr moving from Vegas to the Big Easy. Winston has a cap hit of $4.5 million for 2023. He went 5-2 with a 14/3 TD/INT rate in 2021 before an injury ended a promising season. New Orleans may be wary to trade Winston with a lack of depth at the position after Carr. 

Then there’s Tom Brady. The GOAT retired, again, and officially, this off-season after slogging through his worst regular season in 20 years. 

Still, he’s Brady, and he clearly has an interest in Vegas, acquiring part of the franchise to join the ownership group. The deal isn't official yet, however. 

Still Brady returning is highly unlikely because, per NFL rules, once the deal is official, the Raiders would need an unanimous vote from fellow owners to allow Brady to become a player/owner.

That makes things cloudy from a playing perspective, but don't be surprised if McDaniels has already sent at least one text to QB12. 

The Field includes lightly-regarded Raiders reserves Chase Garbers and Aidan O’Connell, the recently retired Matt Ryan, Jets lame duck Zach Wilson and Titans QBs Ryan Tannehill and Malik Willis.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.