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NFL Week 5 Picks, Betting Predictions & Best Bets To Back Today

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 25 mins

NFL Week 5 Picks, Betting Predictions & Best Bets To Back Today

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A potential pair of playoff preview games highlight the 2023 Week 5 NFL betting season. NFL teams also begin taking their byes this week. The next full schedule returns in Week 13.   

The San Francisco 49ers play host to the Dallas Cowboys at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. That game closes the Sunday schedule and kicks off at 8:20 p.m. Eastern on NBC. Both teams are second-tier favorites to reach the Super Bowl out of the NFC after Philadelphia. 

The 49ers and Eagles are the lone undefeated teams in the NFC. The Eagles head West as well, visiting the LA Rams at SoFi.

Ten hours 50 minutes before, and 5,339 miles away from the Jaguars-Bills kickoff in London, the Jacksonville Jaguars play their second-straight game in England this week, as they "visit" the Buffalo Bills at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. 

RELATED: 2023 NFL MVP Odds: Can Mahomes Repeat?

With or without King Charles III, this game offers a peak at some royalty in the AFC. Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence are projected to have their teams in the playoff hunt deep into January. The Bills crushed Miami in Week 4. The Jaguars are 2-2 and tied for first in the NFC South.

The NFL Red Zone slims down to the Exi-Box this week at 1 p.m., with just a half-dozen games in the early Sunday afternoon time slot. The last national offerings were solid choices before the season but will be duds. The Aaron Rodgers-less Jets visit the 1-3 Broncos at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS, with the Chiefs at Vikings as the second choice. 

Now it’s on to our Week 5 NFL picks to back on your sports betting app: 

NFL 2023 Season Week 5 Picks

Oddsmakers on betting apps have set betting lines on these games. Let's take a look at the schedule for our NFL Week 5 picks and best bets: 

DateMatchupWeek 5 Picks
Thursday, Oct. 5Bears @ Commanders Commanders ATS
Sunday, Oct. 8Jaguars @ Bills (London) Under 48 Points
Sunday, Oct. 8Texans @ Falcons Texans Moneyline
Sunday, Oct. 8Panthers @ Lions Lions ATS
Sunday, Oct. 8Titans @ Colts Titans ATS
Sunday, Oct. 8Giants @ Dolphins Under 49 Points
Sunday Oct. 8Saints @ Patriots Patriots ATS
Sunday, Oct 8Ravens @ Steelers Ravens ATS
Sunday, Oct. 8Bengals @ Cardinals Cardinals ATS
Sunday, Oct. 8Eagles @ Rams Rams ATS
Sunday, Oct. 8Jets @ Broncos Jets ATS
Sunday, Oct. 8Chiefs @ Vikings Vikings ATS
Sunday, Oct. 8Cowboys @ 49ers 49ers ATS
Monday, Oct. 9Packers @ Raiders Packers Moneyline

All NFL Week 5 best bets are accurate as of publication. NFL Week 5 picks are subject to change. Use the BetMGM promo code BOOKIESPICKS to get a $1,000 first-bet bonus for your NFL Week 5 picks.

Bye Week: Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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2022 NFL Week 5 Best Bets To Back Today

Thursday, October 5

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-4),  8:15 p.m. (Amazon Prime)

Remember when Thursday nights were set aside for "Friends" and "Seinfeld?" Those were the days. The Bears blew a 28-7 lead at home and lost to Denver. Denver! The Commanders took Philly to OT and could have won it in regulation. This line has moved from Washington -1 to -4.5. No need to worry. Parlay it with the under of 44.5 if you want a nice play. 

Best Bet: Commanders -4 (-110) with DraftKings

Sunday, October 8

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5.5), 9:30 a.m. (In London on NFL Network)

This is the Jaguars' second straight game in London. The Bills will be crossing the pond after crushing the Dolphins in Week 4. Jacksonville's defense shut down Atlanta on Sunday. Jacksonville will have trouble scoring this week, as well. Each of the Jaguars' last five games at neutral venues has gone under the total. This will make six. 

Best Bet: Under 48 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-2), 1 p.m. (FOX)

These two cities will be fully preoccupied with baseball this weekend. The Texans have strung together impressive back-to-back wins, outscoring Pittsburgh and Jacksonville by a combined 67-24 score. C.J. Stroud is making plays most rookies can't. Desmond Ridder's inconsistent play is pushing us to lean on the road dog here. 

Best Bet: Texans Moneyline (+130) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-7.5), 1 p.m. (FOX)

Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young's learning curve has grown steeper each weel. He'll be on the road in what has suddenly become a hostile road environment in Detroit. The Lions are looking to claim the NFC North title and can't affort to slip at home against a team in reconstruction mode. The Lions will subdue Carolina with a punishing ground attack and smothering defense. We liked the Lions when this line was under one score. The hook here is dangerous. A white-knuckle affair. 

Best Bet: Lions -7.5 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-1), 1 p.m. (CBS)

A battle for AFC South tiebreaker bragging rights. Speaking of rookie QBs on the learning curve, Anthony Richardson has shown promise when not injured. The Titans are going nowhere, at least in the NFC South, and stomped by the Bengals 27-3 in Week 4. Titans RB Derrick Henry was re-discovered and consumed 120 yards rushing and scored a TD vs the declawed Cats. He could well enjoy similar numbers this week. This Mike Vrabel defense should be able to keep the rookie Richardson in check. 

Best Bet: Titans +1 (-110)   with Caesars Sportsbook

New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-9.5), 1 p.m. (FOX)

This line was swelled from Miami -4.5 and -9.5 since Week 1. Don't be thrown off by the beat-down Miami suffered in Orchard Park in Week 4. The Dolphins should be able to re-establish the run against the Giants. All things Tua flow from there. New York is coming off a home Monday night game against Seattle. October South Florida Sundays can be sneaky hot and humid. Keep an eye on the weather report, which could leave Big Blue out in the cold. This line too heavy. We're going with the under given the Giants' inability to score. 

Best Bet: Under 49 Points (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1), Sunday, 1 p.m.  (CBS)

The Patriots are coming off their worst loss of the Bill Belichick era, a 38-3 humiliation in Dallas. The Patriots' defense has been ravaged by injuries. Mac Jones is clueless. Derek Carr sputtered agains the Bucs in his return. This is one of just four games in which the Patriots were betting favorites before the season began. The Patriots will deliver a mirage victory, giving false hope to a team in need a of a complete overhaul. A loss here, and things will get really interesing on Route 1. 

Best Bet: Patriots -1 (-110)   with DraftKings Sportsbook

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. (CBS)

This line has slowly ticked up from Baltimore -1 (which we loved) to Baltimore -3.5. Still a solid play. The Steelers got smoked 30-6 in Houston in Week 4. And QB Kenny Pickett was hurt and remains questionable moving forward. Pittsburgh cannot score. The Ravens always tend to suprise on the upside. Lamar Jackson is worth the investment at this price. Pair this with the under of 40.5 points if you're in search of a reasonable parlay. 

Best Bet: Ravens -3.5 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

This line has flattened along with the fortunes of the Cincinnati Bengals, tumbling from Cincy -8.5 to -3.5. A team several liked to reach the AFC title game if not the Super Bowl has steadily slid this season. A 27-3 loss to the Ravens all but knocked the Browns out of contention in the AFC North, given their 0-2 record in the division. Joe Burrow is clearly not 100%, having failed to get his team in the end zone twice this season. Ja'Marr Chase was last year dropping "F-Bombs" in the lockerroom, proclaiming he is "always (expletive) open." Arizona QB Joshua Dobbs and RB James Conner can control the ball and score. The Cardinals ML at +145 is also worth your consideration. 

Best Bet: Cardinals +3.5 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

The Eagles have demolished any concern of the post-Super-Bowl-loss hangover. It hasn't been easy - Philly is still breaking in new offensive and defensive coordinators - but the Eagles are 4-0 straight up. They've continued their struggles against the line. Philly was 10-10 last year on the line, and stands 2-1-1 this season. Philly needed OT to beat Washington at home and gave up 31 points to Sam Howell's Commanders. The Rams got their "Super Bowl" win in OT at Indy in Week 4. They are also unbeaten ATS at 3-0-1. Take the points here. 

Best Bet: Rams +5.5 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-3), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

The game was supposed to be the Aaron Rodgers & Nathaniel Hackett Redemption Bowl. The Broncos fired Hackett last season and his replacement, Sean Payton, was quick to trash his predecessor. Zach Wilson and Jets came up short against Patrick Mahomes, Taylor Swift, and Roger Goodell in Week 4, losing 23-20. Wilson showed flashes of brilliance against Kansas City. The Broncos won a thriller 31-28 at Chicago, erasing a 28-7 deficit on the road. But they gave up 335 yards passing and 4 TDs to Justin Fields

Best Bet: Jets +3 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook

Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Minnesota Vikings, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

For the sake of all that his holy, please give Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, and Swelce, a bye week. Swift's presence has overshadowed the Chiefs' past two victories, along with everything else in the NFL. The juxtaposition of her presence in the stands Sunday night with an ad for her upcoming movie, and the unabashed use of her music and lyrics in the NBC pre-game hype, opened the door to questions about whether she is in some sort of partnership with The Shield. Patrick Mahomes is 10-1 in his career playing in domed stadiums. But he was just 1-3 ATS last season under the same conditions. Mahomes smartly bailed on a TD that would have put the Chiefs up by 10 (and deliver a cover) Sunday night to end the game. 

Best Bet: Vikings +5.5 (-110) with Caesars Sportsbook


Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5), 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

This is a solid Sunday night matchup steeped in history and very relevant in the present. The 49ers have eliminated Dallas from the playoffs each of the past two seasons, including in the NFC Divisional Round last January. That game was a 19-12 rock fight. At least one team should hit 20 this time. San Francisco (4-0/3-1) has won 15 straight regular-season games. Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and the 49ers continue to wreck opposing defenses. The Cowboys (3-1/3-1) should be riding high after delivering Bill Belichick the worst loss of career as Patriots head coach. San Francisco stays unbeaten here. And grabs the cover at home. 

Best Bet: 49ers -3.5 (-105)   with DraftKings

Monday, October 9

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

The Raiders are flat-out terrible. And this line has flipped from Las Vegas -1.5 to Green Bay being 1.5-point road favorites. The Raiders no longer have a home-field advantage given the transient nature of those in Las Vegas. Expect a green-and-white clad throng at Allegiant Stadium Monday night. The Packers always travel well. Green Bay. QB Jimmy Garoppolo should return for Vegas. But these are teams clearly trending in different directions. Josh McDaniels could well be peeking ahead toward his latest rematch against Bill Belichick in Week 6. 

Best Bet: Packers Moneyline (-122) with DraftKings

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.