NFL DFS Week 6 Value Picks & Best Plays
Jim Coventry | 10 mins
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This week, several running backs are expected to see an increase in usage due to teammates getting injured. Some of these options are priced so that we can save money to spend up at wide receiver. We’ll look to find value in multiple price ranges this week to help create an optimal lineup for our daily fantasy picks in Week 6.
Also, those who fade both the Bills vs. Chiefs and Cardinals vs. Seahawks do so at their own peril. Of course, avoiding those teams could also provide an edge on the field in GPPs if those games surprisingly go flat.
NFL DFS Week 6 Main Slate, Ranked by Over/Under
- Bills vs Chiefs - 54
- Cardinals vs Seahawks - 50.5
- Vikings vs Dolphins - 45.5
- Jets vs Packers - 45
- Ravens vs Giants - 45
- 49ers vs Falcons - 44.5
- Buccaneers vs Steelers - 44
- Bengals vs Saints - 43
- Patriots vs Browns - 43
- Jaguars vs Colts - 42
- Panthers vs Rams - 42
- Cowboys vs Eagles - 42
Related: NFL Week 6 Picks, Predictions and Best Bets
Highest Implied Team Totals
- Bills - 28
- Cardinals - 27
- Chiefs, Rams, Bucs, Packers - 26
- Ravens, Vikings, 49ers - 25
- Seahawks - 24
- Bengals, Browns - 23
- Colts - 22
- Patriots, Saints, Dolphins - 21
- Jaguars, Commanders, Giants - 20
- Jets, Falcons, Bears - 20
- Steelers - 18
- Panthers - 15
NFL DFS Week 6 Quarterbacks for FanDuel & DraftKings
Geno Smith - Seahawks vs. Cardinals - DK $5,700 FD $7,400
Smith’s recent surge in production may level off over time. For now, he’ll have his third favorable matchup over a four-week period. The QB is running hot. He’s thrown multiple TD passes in three straight games. He’s also averaging over 300 yards during that span.
In this home contest, Smith faces an Arizona defense that has created very little pressure on opposing QBs. They also have a cornerback group that hasn't had much success holding up in pass coverage. As a result, this defense is giving up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs.
Throw in the fact that the Seattle defense can’t seem to stop anyone, and we can expect another one of their now weekly shootouts. With DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett having massive talent advantages over the Cardinals defense, Smith will have few issues attacking this secondary.
Tom Brady - Buccaneers at Steelers - DK $6,300 FD $7,500
Brady hasn’t been a great FanDuel DFS option for most of this year. He’s thrown exactly one TD pass in four of five games. That said, this is an excellent get-right spot for the Tampa Bay passing attack. Brady faces a Pittsburgh defense that has been a top-10 unit against the run.
Meanwhile, while playing without T.J. Watt, the pass rush has fizzled. The Pittsburgh cornerbacks have no advantages over the Buccaneers receivers. Despite a weak Bucs interior offensive line, the Steelers are unlikely to apply consistent pressure on Brady. And since they won’t likely test this defense by running the ball, Brady should continue to throw often.
Over the last three games, he’s averaging 45 pass attempts. Between Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Brady will consistently make pre-snap decisions to attack the optimal matchup. He has a great chance to surpass 300 yards with multiple TDs.
Josh Allen - Bills at Chiefs - DK $8,200 FD $9,200
This is a massive revenge game. We all remember the playoff game last year that ended with the Chiefs scoring in overtime and the Bills never getting the ball. Kansas City is the one obstacle that Buffalo feels they need to overcome if they hope to win a title. In two matchups last year, Allen threw for at least 315 yards.
He accounted for four TDs in each game. Allen also rushed for 59 and 68 yards in those contests. Although the Chiefs may be better on defense this year, Allen has proven to be unstoppable this year, other than the two games that were impacted by either heavy rain or extreme heat.
In terms of defense, the Chiefs are giving up over 279 yards and 2.4 TDs per game through the air. No need to overthink this one. If his big DraftKings DFS salary can fit in weekly lineups, his upside is obviously through the roof.
Also Consider - Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes
NFL DFS Week 6 Running Backs for FanDuel & DraftKings
Jeff Wilson - 49ers at Falcons - DK $6,200 FD $7,200
Wilson has been a high-floor performer in each of his starts since taking over for the injured Elijah Mitchell. He’s gone over 100 scrimmage yards in three of four games, and in the game he failed to reach that level, he posted 74 yards and a TD.
He’s handled between 15 and 20 touches in each start, so usage won’t be an issue. Although the Falcons have been a middling unit against the run this year, this defense won’t be a match for a running game that’s done well in numerous tough matchups.
Atlanta gives up 4.64 yards per carry and 97 rushing yards per game. If the 49ers can play with a lead, Wilson could also pile up late production to potentially get him over 100 yards with opportunities to find the end zone.
Rhamondre Stevenson - Patriots at Browns - DK $6,000 FD $7,500
The Browns defense is giving up six yards per carry. The analysis could actually stop there and be enough. Cleveland is also giving up 1.6 TDs to opposing RBs. In last week’s game, Damien Harris injured his hamstring, and that allowed Stevenson to take on a lead role. As expected, he didn’t disappoint.
He turned 25 carries into 161 yards against the Lions. Although he faced the Lions, one of the worst run defenses in the league, Cleveland may be worse. WIth Harris sitting out and QB Baliey Zappe expected to start, the likely game plan would be one that has Stevenson and the rushing attack shorten the game.
In a similar approach last week, the Chargers RBs rushed 26 times for 222 yards and two TDs against the Browns. Stevenson should have a very heavy workload, giving him excellent floor and ceiling potential.
Saquon Barkley- Giants vs. Ravens- DK $7,700 FD $8,600
When we think about RBs facing the Ravens, past history makes us think that the matchup is bad. Saquon Barkley should have no such worries this week. Baltimore is giving up almost five yards per carry.
They also are giving up seven receptions and 51 yards per game through the air to opposing RBs. With a weak passing attack, the Giants will need to continue running their offense through Barkley. He’s posted over 100 yards in all but one game this year. He’s also caught three or more passes in four games.
And even though the Giants don't always score a lot of points, he’s scored three times this season. Between matchup and usage, Barkley has significant upside, and it’s unlikely he has a poor performance.
Also Consider - Ken Walker, Leonard Fournette, J.K. Dobbins, Eno Benjamin
NFL DFS Week 6 Wide Receivers for FanDuel & DraftKings
Ja’Marr Chase- Vikings vs. Bears - DK $7,700 FD $8,100
Since Week 1, Chase hasn’t been an exciting fantasy option. In the last four weeks, he’s averaging just over 50 yards per game while scoring once. Despite his lack of production, the schedule can’t be blamed. Chase hasn’t faced a defense better than 16th in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs.
The problems have been twofold. First, Joe Burrow has been under pressure behind a weak offensive line. Also, defenses have been playing their safeties deep to limit Chase’s explosive plays. One reason we can look to Chase for a spike week is that the Saints have one of the worst pressure rates in the league.
The other reason is that although the Saints CBs are excellent, they tend to do better against big and physical WRs. Justin Jefferson burned them for 147 yards and Tyler Lockett posted 104 yards and two TDs against the New Orleans defense. Look for Chase to win over the top with a big play or two, becoming the third WR this year to post big numbers against the Saints.
DK Metcalf - Seahawks vs. Cardinals - DK $6,800 FD $7,400
After a slow start to the season, Metcalf has been coming on lately. Over the last two games, he’s produced 237 yards and a TD. On paper, his matchup looks bad. He faces an Arizona defense that is giving up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs.
However, with Arizona getting very little pressure on QBs, but also blitzing at a high rate, the CBs will often find themselves in single coverage against Metcalf. There’s little chance that the weaker outside CBs will be able to hold up against the size, strength and speed that Metcalf possesses. We’ve already seen that Seattle plays in shootouts in most games. This game should be another track meet. Metcalf has a very affordable price for the upside he possesses.
Stefon Diggs - Bills at Chiefs - DK $8,400 FD $8,900
8 catches, 201 yards and four TDs. Do those numbers ring a bell? If not, that was the stat line that Gabe Davis posted against the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional playoff game last year. At an affordable price, Davis will likely be a chalk play. That brings us to Diggs. He was shut down by the Chiefs twice last year.
His two-game production resulted in five catches for 76 yards. Make no mistake, as good as Diggs is, the Chiefs cannot afford to ignore Davis because of his big-play potential. That should loosen up the defensive attention that Diggs will see.
In a game that could be a track meet, Diggs could be in line for one of his signature performances. Kansas City has already allowed three lead WRs to post at least 103 yards and a TD, Diggs should be the fourth to do so.
Also Consider - Marquise Brown, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Gabe Davis, Alec Pierce
NFL DFS Week 6 Tight Ends for FanDuel & DraftKings
Evan Engram - Jaguars at Colts - DK $3,500 FD $5,200
Engram has been inconsistent this year. His yardage and targets have been unpredictable. However, Engram is coming off a season-high 10 targets that led to a 69-yard game last week. And in Week 2, the Jaguars faced the Colts.
In that game, Engram caught seven of eight targets for 46 yards. In the rematch, he’ll face an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. They have given up 56 yards and 0.8 TDs per game to the position.
Between his target potential and recent history along with an opponent that has a weakness against TEs, Engram is a strong option at a bargain price.
Zach Ertz - Cardinals at Seahawks - DK $4,900 FD $6,000
With DeAndre Hopkins set to miss his sixth and final game of his suspension, Ertz should remain a focal point of the Arizona passing attack. He’s been targeted at least 10 times in each of the last four games while not seeing less than six targets since Week 1.
He’s also posted at least 45 yards in four straight. In a game that’s likely to shoot out against the Seahawks, there should be plenty of passing volume for Ertz to remain productive. And the matchup couldn’t be better.
He’s facing a Seattle defense that has given up the most fantasy points to TEs. They allow 91 yards per game and 0.8 TDs. In two meetings against this defense last year, he scored twice with yardage totals of 84 and 88.
Also Consider- Travis Kelce, Tyler Higbee