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NFL Week 6 Picks 2023: Predictions & Best Bets To Back For Every Game

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 28 mins

NFL Week 6 Picks 2023: Predictions & Best Bets To Back For Every Game

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This week's "Game Of The NFL Betting Season" offers a somewhat surprising matchup between a pair of first-place teams. 

The first-place Detroit Lions (4-1) visit Tampa Bay to face a Buccaneers team that is 3-1 in the post-Tom Brady Era and holds the top spot in the NFC South. Baker Mayfield has been able to limit his mistakes. The Bucs' defense has done the rest. These teams are a combined 7-2 ATS, as they continue to get little regard from oddsmakers if not the betting public. 

This game was flexed into the national late-afternoon slot on FOX alongside the Eagles-Jets matchup. 

That game was supposed to feature Aaron Rodgers facing off against the NFC Champion Eagles. The Eagles have yet to falter this season following their Super Bowl loss. They are 5-0 straight up and 3-1-1 on the line. Without Rodgers, the Jets are a surprising 2-3, but have that number flipped at 3-2 against the spread.  

The Eagles-Jets would have been a dream Super Bowl 58 matchup for NFL executives and CBS, even though this game will air on Fox as part of the NFL's New Era TV alignment. 

Week 6 Schedule Breakdown

Week 6 begins with the woeful Broncos visiting Kansas City on Thursday night. The NFL continues its overseas play when the Baltimore Ravens face the Tennessee Titans at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. 

The NFL Red Zone will be back in Octo-Box mode starting at 1 p.m. Sunday, as there are eight games being played in the early afternoon time slot. The New York Giants limp into Orchard Park and face what should be a very lubricated Bills Mafia crowd Sunday night. Not to mention Josh Allen's offense. The Cowboys seek to scrape themselves off the mat and visit the LA Chargers on Monday night. 

Now it’s on to our Week 6 NFL picks to back on your sports betting app.

Bye Weeks: Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL 2023 Season Week 6 Picks

Oddsmakers on betting apps have set betting lines on these games now. Let's take a look and make our best NFL Week 6 picks. 

DateMatchupWeek 6 Picks
Thursday, Oct. 12Broncos @ Chiefs Chiefs ATS
Sunday, Oct. 15Ravens @ Titans (London) Ravens ATS
Sunday, Oct. 15Commanders @ Falcons Under 42 Points
Sunday, Oct. 15Vikings @ Bears Bears ATS
Sunday, Oct. 15Seahawks @ Bengals Seahawks ATS
Sunday, Oct. 1549ers @ Browns 49ers ATS
Sunday Oct. 15Seahawks @ Bengals Seahawks ATS
Sunday, Oct 15Saints @ Texans Under 40 Points
Sunday, Oct. 15Colts @ Jaguars Jaguars ATS
Sunday, Oct. 15Panthers @ Dolphins Dolphins ATS
Sunday, Oct. 15Lions @ Buccaneers Lions ATS
Sunday, Oct. 15Patriots @ Raiders Under 42.5 Points
Sunday, Oct. 15Cardinals @ Rams Rams ATS
Sunday, Oct. 15Eagles @ Jets Jets ATS
Sunday, Oct. 15Giants @ Bills Under Points Total
Monday, Oct. 16Cowboys @ Chargers Cowboys ML

NFL Week 6 picks accurate as of publication. They are subject to change once other markets are available. Use the BetMGM promo code BOOKIESPICKS to get a $1,000 first-bet offer for your NFL Week 6 picks.

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NFL Week 6 Best Bets

Thursday, Oct. 12

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5), 8:15 p.m. (Amazon Prime)

Sean Payton and Russell Wilson have yet to cover in 5 games this season. The Broncos were among the great unknowns heading into the season. They have disappointed on all fronts. The Chiefs were 3-5-1 ATS as home favorites last season. 

Not very impressive for a Super Bowl champion. They lost outright as home favorites in Week 5. This line has swelled from 7 to 10.5. But the Broncos have moved south of terrible. And the Chiefs may need a point differential as a potential tiebreaker in the AFC. There won't be any let-up here. 

Best Bet: Chiefs -10.5 (-110) with DraftKings

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Sunday, Oct. 15

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (London), 9:30 a.m. (NFL Network)

The Ravens stalled in a 17-10 loss at Pittsburgh in Week 5 and are now on the back end of a tiebreaker with the Steelers atop the AFC North. The Titans could not stop the Colts even after Anthony Richardson left that game due to injury. Lamar Jackson should be enough to counter Derrick Henry as the difference here. 

There's some value here with the line moving slightly toward Tennessee after Sunday. Single-digit potential on both sides of the scoreboard. 

Best Bet: Ravens -3.5 (-110) with Caesars Sportsbook

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Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5), 1 p.m. (CBS) 

Oddsmakers have been overpricing the Falcons (3-2, 1-4) all season. The hype surrounding Atlanta's offseason offensive rebuild has yet to translate into betting success. 

The Falcons needed a last-second field goal to beat the visiting Texans 21-19 outright Sunday, whiffing on the hook at -2.5. Nine of the past 11 Falcons games have gone under the points total. That's what we're looking at here. Washington struggles running the ball. Atlanta's passing game runs hot and cold. 

Best Bet: Under 42 Points (-110) with Caesars Sportsbook

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Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. (Fox)

This game has moved from a pick to the visiting Vikings becoming 3-point favorites. The Bears have failed to cover in their past 7 games as home underdogs. 

And have failed to cover in their 9 games against teams with a losing record. Each of the Vikings' four losses has been by one score or less. A flip of their one-score success from last season. Yet, the Vikings could be without Justin Jefferson. And Justin Fields has appeared to find his groove, even after getting stomped by Washington in Week 5. A trend-breaker. 

Best Bet: Bears +3 (-110) with Caesars Sportsbook


Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5), 1 p.m.  (CBS)

The Seahawks are scheduled to travel more than 31,000 mile this year, by the far the most of any NFL team. They have 5 games in the Eastern Time Zone. Their only back-to-back Eastern Time Zone scheduled games were their Week 4 clubbing of the NY Giants and this one. 

However, the Seahawks are coming off a bye in Week 5. Seattle has delivered for bettors, going 3-1 ATS. Seattle has won 6 of 8 against AFC opponents. And Despite the Joe Burrow-Ja'Marr Chase aerial circus at Arizona on Sunday, this line has moved from Cincinnati -4.5 to -2.5. That a tell that the sharps are backing Seattle. You should, too.

Best Bet: Seattle +2.5 (-110) with DraftKings


San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m. (FOX)

The 49ers are the most-complete team in the NFL. They've dominated tough opponents and push-overs. The 49ers put Philadelphia and any potential Super Bowl opponent on notice by demolishing Dallas 42-10. 

The wounded Browns are coming off the bye. Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson is recovering from a shoulder injury. The 49ers vary their offense each week, so look for Christian McCaffrey to run wild. We grabbed the 49ers when this line opened preseason at San Francisco -1. It moved to -3 last week and -4.5 Monday.

Best Bet: 49ers -4.5 (-110) with Caesars Sportsbook

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New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.  (FOX)

The Saints ignited the Bill Belichick Hot Seat with their 34-0 rout of the Patriots in Foxboro Sunday. There's no better reason for people in Houston to root for the Astros to go deep in the playoffs than having this stinker at home. 

The Texans blew a chance at moving above .500 by sputtering against the Falcons in a 21-19 loss at the gun. Neither team has been consistent. So this will be a reset week. Each of the past 11 Saints games have gone under the points total. Make it 12. 

Best Bet: Under 40 Points (-110) with Caesars Sportsbook


Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4), 1 p.m. (CBS)

Winner gets first place alone in the AFC South. Both teams are 3-2 outright and ATS. These teams split last season but the Jaguars beat the Colts at home 24-0. This number has tightened from Jacksonville -6.5 to -4. 

The Jaguars rolled to backt-to-back wins in their home-away-from-home London. Trevor Lawrence & Co. impressed with a hard-fought 25-20 win over the Bills. The Colts upended Tennessee at home, and have RB Jonathan Taylor back in the lineup.  But they lost Anthony Richardson - again. This could be the Garnder Minshew homecoming. The Jaguars will be ready. 

Best Bet: Jaguars -4 (-110) with DraftKings


RELATED: AFC & NFC Championship Odds Tracker


Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (-14), 1 p.m. (CBS)

The "Bryce Young On The Run" rookie tour stumbles into South Florida this week. Carolina won't be able to keep up with their hosts, who boast two players who topped 21 MPH on various plays Sunday. This line has doubled since it opened at Miami -7. That offers a great example of why you should shop early lines when there's a potential massive disparity in talent. The Dolphins (4-1/4-1) are contending for an AFC title. 

They covered a 12.5-point line in beating the Giants in Week 5. Carolina was helpless against the Lions in Week 5. Point differential could be a determining factor when it comes to tiebreakers at the end of the season. Miami hit 70 points against Denver earliet this season. 60 could be in the cards here. 

Best Bet: Dolphins -14 (-110) with DraftKings

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Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

The Buccaneers wear their very-cool, throw-back Creamsickle uniforms in Week 6. They lost their first 26 games in those threads back in 1976-77. Unlike the Patriots, the Buccaneers have shown there is life after Tom Brady. This duel of first-place teams proves it, having been flexed into the late FOX time slot. 

The Bucs and Baker Mayfield are 3-1 and lead the NFC South coming off the bye. The Lions have finally gelled into a division/playoff contender. The Lions continue to take advantage of a lack of consideration by oddsmakers and are 13-2 ATS in their past 15 games. The Bucs are built around their defense and not well equipped to play from behind. We will  sweat the hook here. 

Best Bet: Lions -3.5 (-110) with DraftKings


New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-3), 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

New England lost at Allegiant Stadium last year in a way that needed to be seen to be believed. This Dysfunctional Patriots Family reunion features Raiders coach Josh McDaniels and QB Jimmy Garoppolo. 

The Patriots are in the midst of their worst run since 1970. They've lost back-to-back games by more than 30 points (72-3 combined) for the first time in 53 years. Back then, the Boston Patriots played their home games at Harvard Stadium. The Raiders opened as 1-point favorites. The line has moved to 3. Bill Belchick said the Patriots are going to "start over" after losing 34-0 at home to New Orleans Sunday. Good luck with that. Neither offense can do much of anything. Take the under and look away.

Best Bet: Under 42.5 Points (-110) with DraftKings


Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6), 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

The Rams were favored in just four of their 17 games before Week 1. We urged people to lock in this line when it was Rams -3.5. It's since swelled to 6 points. Both teams are coming off home losses. 

The Rams lost to the unbeaten Eagles. The Cardinals were shredded by the up-and-down Bengals. The Rams should be able to score against the Cardinals. Matthew Stafford just needs to limit the turnovers. All-World Rams WR Cooper Kupp now has a full week of play post-injury and could break out here. 

Best Bet: Rams -6 (-110) with Caesars Sportsbook

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Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at New York Jets, 4:25 p.m.  (FOX)

What could have been? The New York-Philly rivalry complete with Jalen Hurts' Eagles visiting Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. This game opened as pick 'em before Rodgers' injury. 

That window has long since closed. The Jets showed some chops in the Nathaniel Hackett Payback Bowl Sunday at Denver. New York's defense nearly beat Travis Kelce, Taylor Swift, and the K.C. Swifties two weeks ago before Park Avenue stepped in to the save the night. Expect Gang Green to keep this one close. The Jets have covered in 7 of their past 8 October games. The 5-0 Eagles have failed to cover twice this season and went 10-10 ATS last year, including the playoffs, despite reaching the Super Bowl. 

Best Bet: Jets +6.5 (-110) with Caesars Sportsbook

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New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-15), 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Brian Daboll's homecoming. He's gonna wish he never left. This line has more than doubled since it opened at -7. A Monday night crowd in Orchard Park, New York, will be well lubricated and demanding a blowout. The Bills struggled overseas in losing to the Jaguars 25-20 in London. 

This return home will set things right. And loosen up the offense. The Giants are riding an 0-6 streak ATS. But this the biggest number they've faced in years. We're leaning on the under, given the paucity of offense generated by Big Blue. The total has gone under in 5 of those 6 losses on the line. 

Best Bet: Under 46 Points (-110) with DraftKings


Monday, Oct. 16

Dallas Cowboys (-1) at Los Angeles Chargers, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Dak and The 'Boys were curb-stomped by San Francisco 42-10 Sunday night. But they've shown a remarkable ability to bounce back after these losses. 

Dallas has won 7 straight coming off a loss. And they've covered in 4 of their past 5 Monday night games. The Cowboys should be able to resurrect some semblance of their "Texas Coast" offense against a Chargers defense that has given up 26 PPG and 299.8 YPG passing this season. 

Best Bet: Cowboys ML (-120) with Caesars Sportsbook

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.