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NFL First Team Eliminated Odds: Who Won't Make Playoffs?

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 4 mins

NFL First Team Eliminated Odds: Who Won't Make Playoffs?

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Before any NFL season begins, the goal is a postseason berth. For a handful of teams, that changes quickly. 

In the later stages of the season, teams get eliminated from postseason consideration. Last year, it was the Houston Texans, who were knocked out of the running after just 12 games. The Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos were done after 13 games. In the previous seasons, the Texans and Detroit Lions called it by Week 13. 

We're nearing the halfway point of the 2023 NFL season, and trends are forming. Bookies.com veteran oddsmaker Adam Thompson has created his NFL betting odds as to which team will be the first to cross “Playoffs” off the to-do list in 2023. 

First Team Eliminated From Playoff Contention Odds

TeamOddsImplied Probability
Washington Commanders+35022.2%
Carolina Panthers+37521.1%
Arizona Cardinals+45018.2%
Chicago Bears+60014.3%
New York Giants+70012.5%
New England Patriots+10009.1%
Green Bay Packers+12007.7%
Las Vegas Raiders+13007.1%
The Field+12007.7%

These NFL futures odds are for entertainment purposes only and have been created by our Bookies.com handicapper. They do not reflect actual odds that may be available on betting apps.

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The Arizona Cardinals (1-7) and Carolina Panthers (1-6) have the worst records going into Week 9. But each has reason for at least some optimism. 

The Panthers just earned their first win of the season and their schedule gets considerably easier. Bryce Young and the young Panthers didn't go into "sell" mode at the trade deadline. The Cardinals don't have such an easy schedule, but they should get star QB Kyler Murray for the stretch run. 

Murray's return gives Carolina a slightly higher chance to get knocked out first. But neither of them is favored to be the one team that can first call off 2023's postseason run. 

The Washington Commanders (3-5) are two games up on the Cards and Panthers. But among all teams with records of 3-5 or worse, no team has a tougher remaining schedule. Also, no team sold more at the trade deadline than the Commanders. It is clear new owner Josh Harris seeks a reboot. It started with the trading of Chase Young and Montez Sweat and many believe it will continue with the team moving on from head coach Ron Rivera. It's a tough situation, and two games against the Cowboys and matchups with the Dolphins, 49ers and Seahawks don't look promising.   


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The Chicago Bears (2-6) seem to have improved defensively, but now QB Justin Fields has missed two games and is expected to miss more. The schedule going forward is a favorable one, keeping them just ahead of the other contenders. 

The New York Giants (2-5), New England Patriots (2-6) and Green Bay Packers (2-5) also are in rougher shape. New England and Green Bay have easier remaining schedules, however, while the Giants get QB Daniel Jones back from injury, giving them advantages over the aforementioned squads. 

There's a new coach in Las Vegas, where the Raiders (3-5) fired coach Josh McDaniels after less than two seasons despite a record that wasn't as bad as others. The remaining schedule ranks 11th hardest, but perhaps the new coach fires up the troops. 

The Field has a few intriguing teams, including the Denver Broncos (3-5), who just beat Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs; the Indianapolis Colts (3-5), who have dropped three straight; and the Los Angeles Rams (3-5), who have dropped two in a row and may not have QB Matthew Stafford (thumb) for an extended period of time. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.