NFL Week 10 Picks & Predictions For Every Game: 'Say Cheese'
Aaron Rodgers vs. Russell Wilson.
It’s a great way to begin Part II of the NFL betting season in the Cheesehead State.
Maybe? Maybe not? Maybe . . . never mind.
Rodgers and Wilson are supposed to face each other’s defenses Sunday afternoon in Green Bay, COVID permitting. Wilson returns to the Seattle Seahawks this week after an injury hiatus. Aaron Rodgers plays if he clears protocols.
But this isn’t necessarily good news for those who follow both teams for wagering purposes.
The Packers and Seahawks are a combined 4-0 ATS at betting sites this season without their marquee QBs.
The Seahawks touch down in Wisconsin as 3.5-point underdogs and at +160 at PointsBet. Wilson, who played at the University of Wisconsin, was sidelined with a ruptured tendon in his finger last month. He missed three games and a bye week. Without Wilson, the Seahawks were 1-2 straight-up under Geno Smith, but 3-0 against the spread.
The same warning holds true for those considering backing the Packers. As terrible as Jordan Love played at Kansas City last week, the Packers managed to capture a backdoor cover at Kansas City (-7.5) with a late TD in a 13-7 loss. Green Bay is -170 at DraftKings and the consensus total is 49.5.
How should you play this one? Read on and find out.
There are four teams on the bye this week: Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston and the New York Giants.
No need for the RedZone Octo-Box. There are just seven games in the early Sunday time slot. Week 10 begins with the Baltimore Ravens at Miami on Thursday. The other primetime games include a pair of intra-divisional matchups. The AFC West Chiefs visit the Raiders on Sunday. Monday’s game has the Rams at the 49ers in the NFC West.
On to our Week 10 NFL picks:
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Thursday, Nov. 11
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins, 8:20 p.m. (FOX)
Baltimore gets its second bye week in three weeks. This one comes in the form of a game against the Dolphins. Lamar Jackson comes home to South Florida and should dazzle in front of his family and friends. Speaking of back-ups who cover the spread, Jacoby Brissett scored a betting victory for Dolphins backers off a four-point spread last week with a 17-9 win over Houston. Tua Tagovailoa missed the game (finger) and remains day-to-day. Not sure it will matter much who plays QB for the Dolphins, whether it be Tagovailoa, Brissett or 1985 Dan Marino.
Best Bet: Ravens -7.5 (+100) at PointsBet
Check out Ravens vs Dolphins odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
Sunday, Nov. 14
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. (CBS)
The Jaguars had their Super Bowl win last week. Josh Allen helped Jacksonville beat Josh Allen and Buffalo. But the Jags do not have anyone named “Carson Wentz” on their roster. That spells trouble for the Cats. The Colts surprised last week with an easy cover at -11 over the Jets. Not sure they can do it two weeks in a row. Focus on the total here when looking at the NFL odds for the game.
Best Bet: Under 47.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM
Check out Jaguars vs Colts odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots, 1 p.m. (CBS)
Both teams are 5-4. The winner gets a huge edge in the fight for an AFC wild card. The Patriots are just one game behind Buffalo in the AFC East and have won three straight. The Browns ridded themselves of Odell Beckham Jr. and wrecked the Bengals. Now, they get to face a real defense. In Foxboro. Rookie QB Mac Jones has twisted his way into the top 10 in NFL passing percentage. Several key players on both sides could miss this one. Cleveland RB Nick Chubb tested positive for COVID. New England RB Damien Harris is in the concussion protocol.
Best Bet: Patriots ML (-125) at BetMGM
Check out Browns vs Patriots odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. (CBS)
The Trevor Siemian Era may be over. Taysom Hill is healthy again. Sean Payton has a big decision to make. The Titans have won four straight over the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and now the Rams. The offense was spotty without Derrick Henry in LA, but the defense stepped up in a major way. That’s good because the Saints’ secondary can be nasty. Just ask Tom Brady.
Best Bet: Titans -3 (+107) at PointsBet
Check out Saints vs Titans odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Tom Brady took a week off and still leads the NFL in passing TDs with 25. This is the downhill part of the Bucs’ schedule – save for a matchup with Buffalo in Tampa Bay on Dec. 12. Tampa Bay’s defense ranks No. 1 vs. the run and is allowing just 163 yards overall in their past three games. Washington’s offense has gone the way of Kamala Harris’ poll numbers. QB Taylor Heinicke has 10 TDs and 8 picks. The Bucs are way too good to fall into a “Trap Game,” especially after the bye. The lone caveat for spread betters is that the Bucs are 6-2 overall but just 3-5 ATS. Sportsbooks have made a killing this season larding up points on the Super Bowl champs.
Best Bet: Under 51.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM
Check out Washington vs Buccaneers odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, 1 p.m. (CBS)
For the third straight week, oddmakers have the Bills giving up at least 13 points. Buffalo scored a late push/cover against Miami two weeks ago in a 26-11. That game closed at -15 but hovered around -13/-14 right up until kickoff. Last week, the Bills (-14.5) lost outright to the Jaguars. New York coach Robert Saleh has opted to stick with Mike White at QB this week. They should be able to keep it close at home.
Best Bet: Jets +12.5 Points (+102) at SugarHouse
Check out Bills vs Jets odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
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Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m. (FOX)
This line has moved from Dallas -7.5 on most major betting apps. Of all the anomalous losses in Week 9, the Cowboys falling to the Broncos at home was the most shocking. Dak was back. The team won with Cooper Rush at Minnesota. Expectations were as big as Texas. The Cowboys were perfect against the spread. Any team that considers itself a contender would rebound with a rout here. The Falcons are the definition of mediocrity, 4-4 straight up and ATS. Atlanta blew a 20-point lead last year against Dallas.
Best Bet: Under 54.5 Points at DraftKings
Check out Falcons vs Cowboys odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
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Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Winless 0-8 Detroit is coming off a bye. But the Lions are 4-4 ATS, while the Steelers are just 3-5. That’s a reversal of their overall mark straight up. The Lions have shown an ability to rally for some late covers. The Steelers have won four but needed help from Tony Corrente to beat the Bears in a Monday night slugfest. The Lions may not be able to win, but they can move the ball, score and cover.
Best Bet: Lions +9.5 Points (-110) at SugarHouse
Check out Steelers vs Lions odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
The Patriots likely finished the season, if not the career as a starter, for QB Sam Darnold. He’s been ghosted indefinitely with a shoulder injury. The Cardinals smothered the 49ers on the road without Kyler Murray or DeAndre Hopkins. The Cardinals flashed an in-your-face running back which should dominate here as well. Colt McCoy remains an able back-up this week in case the Cardinals choose to give Murray another week’s worth of rest.
Best Bet: Under 44.5 Points (-110) at SugarHouse
Check out Panthers vs Cardinals odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Both teams are traveling cross-country this week. The up-and-down Vikings took a 34-31 OT loss at Baltimore. They are 2-5 in one-score games this season. The Chargers hung on to beat the Eagles 27-24 in Philly. The are 5-3 ATS and 3-1 at home as favorites. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has 16 TDs against 2 INTs. The Vikings defense leads the NFL in sacks and ranks No. 1 in pressuring the QB. Justin Herbert has 2,350 yards passing in eight games, along with 18 TDs and just 6 picks. A true toss-up.
Best Bet: Chargers ML (-159) at SugarHouse
Check out Vikings vs Chargers odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
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Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Teddy Bridgewater has the best record ATS of any active NFL QB with more than 10 starts. He led the Broncos to a 30-0 lead at Dallas last week in an easy win. The Eagles will try to run to keep this tight. The AFC West is there for the taking. The Broncos won their first three games, then lost four in a row, before winning two straight. Let the streak continue.
Best Bet: Broncos -2.5 (-120) at BetMGM
Check out Eagles vs Broncos odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Week 10 - The Main Event. The status of Rodgers remains the great unknown. Although we saw Green Bay cover last week with Jordan Love – a miracle of sorts. That line moved from KC -1 to KC -8 after the news of Rodgers’ positive COVID test. Smith has been serviceable for bettors but not so much for the Seahawks.
Wilson has a career-best 125.3 QB rating in 2021. He’s raring to go. The Seahawks will be able to feature a much deeper playbook with Wilson than they could with Smith.
Green Bay’s defense has been the secret star this season. The best plan here will be to try and keep Wilson contained, taking away anything deep. And run Aaron Jones all day to keep Wilson off the field.
Given the uncertainty here, the best play is to lock in potential value on Seattle. If Rodgers is a no-go at game time, you’ll have the option to ride out your original bet or try for play in the middle when the line inevitably moves. If Rodgers does play, you’ll be getting points with Russell Wilson playing a pseudo homecoming game in the Badger State.
Best Bet: Seahawks +3.5 (-108) at SugarHouse
Check out Packers vs Seahawks odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
A loss here by the Chiefs could leave them alone in the AFC West basement, a full two games behind the Raiders. A win this weekend will be immensely valuable in the case of a 2, 3 or 4-way tiebreaker in the division. The Raiders fell flat at MetLife Stadium. But they’re at home this week. The Las Vegas crowd will be amped and lubricated for this late afternoon/night game. Finally, the Chiefs are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games – including the postseason. Ride the wave.
Best Bet: Raiders +2.5 (+100) at PointsBet
Check out Chiefs vs Raiders odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
Monday, Nov. 15
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Thankfully, Peyton and Eli will be back for their regular Monday night gig. This game could border on unwatchable by halftime. The Rams got their wake-up call last week courtesy of the Titans’ defense, which picked off Matthew Stafford twice leading to 14 points. Cooper Kupp leads the NFL in receptions, yards and TDs. He’ll add to those numbers this week. The 49ers’ defense has been a major buzzkill in Santa Clara. It will be soon time to play rookie QB Trey Lance full time to get him ready for 2022. And bid Jimmy G (for “gorgeous”) farewell.
Best Bet: Rams -4 (-107) at PointsBet
Check out Rams vs 49ers odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
Last Week: 7-7