NFL Week 10 Sunday Predictions & Picks: Your 5 Best Bets ATS

By Adam Thompson

Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EDT

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When it comes to picking teams against the spread at sportsbooks, there is no sure thing nine weeks into the NFL season.

Granted, there are profitable teams. It begins with the Green Bay Packers, who are actually 3-0 against the spread at home and 5-0 ATS on the road; the Packers only non-cover was a Week 1 loss vs. the Saints in Jacksonville. The Dallas Cowboys were a perfect 7-0 ATS before getting rolled by the Broncos in Week 9.

The Packers are the only team to cover the spread in every home game, where teams usually get a couple extra points. On the road, three teams are perfect: the Packers and Arizona Cardinals are each 5-0, with the Cowboys at 4-0.

After going 4-1 in Week 9 of NFL betting sites, we’ve now hit on 64% of my best bets in the 2021 NFL season, and over 60% each of the last three seasons. Here are my five best bets wagers to make on your sports betting app for NFL Week 10 Sunday games.

RELATED: NFL Week 10 Odds & Betting Lines For Every Game

NFL Week 10 Sunday Best Bets

Broncos ATS over Eagles

Denver manhandled a superior Dallas team on the road last week. Here the Broncos host an Eagles team that has found a running identity – except that only two teams have run for the league average against this sixth-ranked rush D.

Philly has been inconsistent based on results, and its only wins (or losses of under three points) were vs. the Lions, Panthers and Falcons. Denver is more complete than any of those, and at home here. (Locked in at -3.5 at BetMGM)

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Packers ATS over Seahawks

Aaron Rodgers is expected back here, as is Russell Wilson. The difference in these teams is everyone around them. The Packers have decided edges in rushing the ball and in stopping the pass (and stopping the run, though it’s less dramatic).

Seattle hasn’t covered a game at Lambeau in its last six tries. The Packers have covered every game since Week 1. (Locked in at -3)

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Washington ATS over Buccaneers

No Gronk, no Antonio Brown, but probably no problem for Tom Brady to find other targets. That said, this is a lot of points for a home team. Certainly backing the NFL’s worst pass defense vs. the NFL’s top pass attack is a risk. The other matchups on the field aren’t as daunting, in fact several favor Washington, and we’re getting a lot of points at betting sites for a back-door cover. (Locked in at +10 at PointsBet)

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Colts ATS over Jaguars

The Jaguars defied NFL odds and beat the Bills 9-6 last week. Was that a fluke? In a word, yes. The Jacksonville offense and defense still rank in the bottom 10 and all but one of its six losses have been by double figures. They Colts have won four of six; all four wins were by at least 10 and the losses (vs. the Titans and Ravens, both in OT) should have been wins. (Locked in at -10 at DraftKings)

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Raiders ATS over Chiefs

Both teams can sling it, but only one team can stop the opponent from doing the same. The Raiders have the NFL’s best pass rush right now and rank No. 4 vs. QBs. Derek Carr’s offense can get it downfield, and the Chiefs are bottom-barrel at stopping it.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are due, but this isn’t the matchup for it. Vegas has work to do after collapsing vs. the Giants, but they were cruising under their interim coach before that. They’re back home and Allegiant will be rocking. (Locked in at +2.5 at Caesars)

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Must be 21+ to participate (18+ in KY). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, IA, KY, KS, LA, MD, MO, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ). Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN). CALL 1-800-MY-RESET (OH). CALL 1-877-770-STOP (LA). Must be present in LA (select parishes). Licensee partner Amelia Belle Casino. Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 or greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply.

About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.

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