Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

By Adam Thompson | | 7 mins

NFL Week 12 Sunday Predictions & Picks: Your 5 Best Bets

NFL Week 12 Sunday Predictions & Picks: Your 5 Best Bets
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Feeling shy about backing a favored road team on your sports betting app? Don’t be. It’s been an NFL betting trend that continues to pay off – as long as the team you’re backing doesn’t have Tom Brady at quarterback.

Overall, road favorites are 31-28 against the spread, a 53.4% hit rate at sports betting sites that would bring back a modest profit on -110 odds. But take the Buccaneers out of the equation, and that number jumps. When Brady’s Bucs hit the road, they receive way more points than they should. Tampa Bay is a brutal 0-5 ATS as a road favorite. No other NFL team is even 0-2 in that situation. The 31-23 non-Bucs record bumps the win percentage to 57.4%.

Six teams are 1-0 when laying road points, but the consistent winners are the Patriots and 49ers, each 3-1 ATS in that position at sportsbooks.

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson has now hit on over 60% of his best bets in the 2021 NFL season, and over 60% each of the last three seasons. Here are his five best bets for Week 12:


RELATED: NFL Week 12 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games


NFL Sunday Week 12 Best Bets

Eagles ATS over Giants

In the trenches is where it begins, and the Eagles dramatically overmatch the Giants here. That it’s also where the teams want to begin their offenses, with the run, gives an even bigger edge to a Philly team that’s figured out how to use Jalen Hurts to the best of his abilities.

Daniel Jones is too busy running for his life to make a play. The offensive coordinator was just let go so it’s a rudderless ship in New York. The Giants will surely look to lean on Saquon Barkley, but the Eagles rank No. 3 vs. the run. (Locked in at -3.5 at BetMGM)

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Jets ATS over Texans

Backing the Jets? Sounds crazy, but the Texans are awful. They just beat the Titans thanks to five Tennessee turnovers but were outgained 410-190. They’ve failed to get 200 yards of offense four times this season and been held to single-digit scoring five times. The Jets aren’t a ton better but they’re establishing an identity and are leaning on a suddenly robust pass attack. (Locked in at +3 at -125 odds at Caesars)

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Patriots ATS over Titans

The one-dimensional Titans offense, without a run game, without Julio Jones, had five turnovers in a shocking loss to the Texans last week. That ended an impressive run of beating playoff team after playoff team, but the lack of offensive weapons is too much now.

The Patriots have won and covered in five straight, led by a defense that has held its last three opponents to 13 total points. Mac Jones is playing with confidence and that shouldn’t change against the Titans’ 26th-ranked pass D. (Locked in at -5.5 at SugarHouse)


RELATED: NFL Week 12 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game


Broncos ATS over Chargers

The pass-happy Chargers did what they wanted last week vs. the Steelers, but that was at home and Pittsburgh was missing its top-three defenders. In Denver it will be a different story, with the altitude against a top-10 pass defense. L.A. has covered just once in its last six trips to Denver. We’ll take the points with the rested home team. (Locked in at +3 at BetMGM)

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Washington ATS over Seahawks

The Seattle offense is broken as Russell Wilson’s finger has affected every facet of his game. With no run game to help, it’s scored just 13 points in two weeks and lost five of six overall. Washington has flipped the script since its bye week with wins over the Buccaneers and Panthers.

Taylor Heinicke can find openings against Seattle’s bad defense that got ripped by Colt McCoy last week, and the WFT front 7 can overmatch the Seahawks’ struggling O-line. (Locked in at +0.5 at FOX Bet)

About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com.