NFL Week 15 Sunday Predictions & Picks: Your 5 Best Bets

By Adam Thompson Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EST

Home teams have been given too much credit for being at home this season. Of the 208 NFL games so far this season, the away team is a stellar 115-91-2 against NFL spreads, cashing at a rate of 55.8%.

There are a few home teams, however, that have exceeded oddsmakers’ expectations at sportsbooks and betting sites. It starts with the Green Bay Packers, who are not only a perfect 6-0 at home, but 6-0 against the spread, covering by a full TD per game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS at home, with an average cover of 9.1 ppg. After that, just six other teams are above .500 ATS at home: The Lions and Cowboys are 4-2 and the Titans, Broncos, Dolphins and Patriots are 4-3 each.

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson has hit on over 60% of his best bets in the 2021 NFL season, and over 60% each of the last three seasons. Here are his five best NFL betting plays for Week 15:

RELATED: NFL Week 15 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games

NFL Week 15 Best Bets

Steelers ATS over Titans

This one is about as much motivation as it is personnel. Pittsburgh loses and its season is essentially finished. Tennessee has looked lost offensively the last few weeks and, with a multi-game lead in its division and games looming vs. the Dolphins and Texans, the Steelers can sneak up and steal this one.

Aside from a shocking 27-3 win over the Chiefs, the other five teams that have passed for over 200 yards vs. Tennessee have also averaged 28.2 ppg. Pittsburgh has passed for over 250 yards every single game. (Locked in at +1.5 at Caesars)

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Bills ATS over Panthers

Buffalo is only 3-3 at home, but the three losses came to playoff contenders, the three wins were all by two-plus TDs. Carolina hasn’t won a game since Cam Newton took over and the offense hasn’t scored more than 21 in any game while the defense has allowed 27 in each.

Buffalo has the firepower to take control early and Carolina doesn’t have the QB to throw its way back into it, especially against the NFL’s No. 1-ranked pass defense. I don’t like the spread but it’s not going down. (Locked in at -10.5 at DraftKings)

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Rams ATS over Seahawks

This game has been moved from Sunday to Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET due to a COVID outbreak.

The Rams could be missing up to 8-9 players for Sunday’s game, but most of them are replaceable, including Odell Beckham Jr., and many of them could be cleared by kickoff. Tyler Lockett is less likely to be cleared for the Seahawks, and for a team with just one conceivable advantage – pass offense – that’s a huge blow.

L.A. controls the trenches and the Seahawks’ defense, which ranks near the bottom of nearly every category, runs into a red-hot Matthew Stafford. (Locked in at -4 at 888sport)

RELATED: NFL Week 15 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game

49ers ATS over Falcons

The Falcons are up and down then up and down again. But this is a bad matchup at nearly every level. The Falcons are just one game under .500 but have been outscored by 108 points. When they lose, they lose hard, with four of their seven defeats by at least 23 points and all seven by an average of 19.6 ppg.

The Falcons offense won’t be able to keep up with a healthy Deebo Samuel and George Kittle on the other side. (Locked in at -8.5 at SugarHouse)

Saints-Buccaneers Over 46.5

This is as low a total as it gets for Buccaneers games, and it's way too low for a team that's averaging 37.5 ppg at home this season. There aren't a lot of good matchups for New Orleans, but 17-20 points should be enough against a Tampa team that's tallied a minimum of 30 in each home game. These teams totaled 63 when they played earlier this season. (Locked in at -110 at DraftKings)

About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.