The old NFL betting adage “good teams win, great teams cover” turns out to blanket most of the same teams, at least in 2021. Of the 15 teams that head into Week 17 with an above-.500 record against the spread, 14 of them are in solid playoff contention.

Just one bottom-tier team has defied oddsmakers expectations: The Detroit Lions, who are 2-12-1 overall but an impressive 10-5 ATS. Only the Cowboys (12-3) and Packers (11-4) have done better at betting sites.

Conversely, just one team in the bottom-half of the ATS standings are currently in a top-14 playoff spot. The San Francisco 49ers, No. 6 seed in the NFC, are a bad-not-terrible 7-8.

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson has hit on over 61% of his best bets in the 2021 NFL season and over 60% each of the last three seasons. Here are his five best bets from the latest NFL Week 17 Odds.

NFL Week 17 Sunday Free Picks

Titans ATS over Dolphins

Miami has won seven straight, this after losing seven straight. One caveat: None of those seven games were against playoff teams. During its prior seven-game losing streak, the Dolphins faced four teams currently in a playoff spot and went 0-4, losing by an average of 22 ppg.

The motivated Titans have homefield advantage in the AFC within reach, the defense to hold Tua down and the air offense to push the ball against the Dolphins’ 22nd-ranked pass D. (Locked in at -3 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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Saints ATS over Panthers

Carolina’s defense ranks No. 2 in pass yards allowed but No. 19 in points, in large part because the offense has been detrimental to the efforts. It’s lost five straight and allowed 27-33 points in each defeat. New Orleans’ defense is better, and its offense far better with Taysom Hill back under center.

The Panthers are only 21st vs. the run, which fits well into the Saints’ strategy. It’s a must-win game for one side, while the other is counting down the days until the season’s over. (Locked in at -6.5 at FanDuel)

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Buccaneers ATS over Jets

Excluding a shocking win over the Bengals in Week 8, the Jets have lost their last five games vs. playoff-caliber opposition by an average of 19.2 ppg. Tampa has scored 30-plus in five of six games, the last going for 34 against Carolina’s second-ranked pass defense. New York’s pass D ranks 27th and the team has allowed 36.6 ppg in its last eight games vs. teams not called the Jaguars or Texans. For New York sports betting fans, it’s been misery.

This is one of the biggest spreads at sportsbooks for a reason. It’s still not big enough. (Locked in at -12.5 at DraftKings)

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Cowboys ATS over Cardinals

Two playoff teams heading in opposite directions. Arizona has dropped three straight, each by at least six points, including an 18-pointer to the Lions. Arizona sports betting fans were riding high. Now, not so much.

Dallas, though, has won four in a row and a finally healthy defense is dominating. Each team has an advantage in the pass game, but Dallas’ ranks No. 1 in overall offense, too. Murray’s completion percentage the last three games have been his three lowest all season. Dallas’ defense ranks third in the NFL in lowest completion percentage. (Locked in at -5.5 at bet365)

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Patriots ATS over Jaguars

The last three times the Jaguars played a playoff-level team, they lost each game by at least 20 points. The Patriots have intense motivation on their side and are the biggest favorites in NFL odds available this week at betting apps. They’ve lost two straight and haven’t guaranteed a postseason berth. They’ve won their last six vs. non-playoff contenders, the last three by 18 or more.

Jacksonville is the NFL’s worst team missing their top offensive player. (Locked in at -14.5 at BetMGM)

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