NFL Week 18 Free Picks & Predictions: Your 5 Best ATS Bets

By Adam Thompson Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EDT

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Through 17 weeks, Colts RB Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in carries, yards and rushing touchdowns. Similarly, Rams WR Cooper Kupp tops the league in receptions, yards and receiving TDs.

Neither has broken any NFL single-season records. But the season isn’t over, yet. For the first time ever, we have a Week 18, and long-standing regular-season marks might go down.

Kupp is on the brink of breaking both the receptions and yards records. His 138 catches is 11 short of the 149 of Saints WR Michael Thomas in 2019, while his 1,829 yards is 135 short of the total of Lions’ Calvin Johnson from 2012.

RELATED: NFL Week 18 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games

Buccaneers QB Tom Brady needs 16 completions to break the record of 471 set by the Saints’ Drew Brees in 2016. Brady could also break Peyton Manning’s 5,477 pass yards record (2013), though he’s 488 yards away from that.

On defense, Steelers rusher T.J. Watt (21.5 sacks) is one off the pace of Michael Strahan’s 2001 record of 22.5.

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson has hit on 62% of his best bets in the 2021 NFL season, and over 60% each of the last three seasons. And for the first time, New York sports betting fans will be able to legally back Adam's picks on betting apps, following the launch of online sports betting in the Empire State on Saturday.

Here are Adam's five best NFL betting wagers for Week 18:

NFL Week 18 Sunday Free Picks

Browns ATS over Bengals

The Bengals are the better team here, on most days. But this day likely won’t include Joe Burrow or anyone else who is feeling remotely banged up. Cincy wants to be at their best for the playoffs and the low likelihood of moving up in the standings with a win here isn’t worth it.

Cleveland won’t have Baker Mayfield, but he’s not playing well and is hurt, too. The Browns have their run game and it’s elite, and the Bengals don’t stop the run well – especially if top players sit. Cleveland can, and will, go all out to win this finale. Cincy wants to escape healthy. (Locked in at +3 at DraftKings)

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Packers ATS over Lions

We’re not going to get Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay. But we’re probably not going to see Jared Goff, either, and Jordan Love vs. Tim Boyle favors the Packers. Green Bay’s reserves are about as good as Detroit’s regulars; one could argue better defensively, as the Lions are bottom-five vs. the run and the pass.

Green Bay has dominated Detroit over the last couple decades. This line dropped way too many points from opening. (Locked in at -3.5 at FanDuel)

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Patriots ATS over Dolphins

Miami was just eliminated from postseason consideration last week, but its track record vs. good teams is extremely bad (0-5, average loss 23.8 ppg). The Patriots have an outside chance at winning the AFC East – very outside, as the Bills need to lose to the Jets. But they’ll be playing to win.

New England has won eight of 10; five of those eight wins were vs. non-playoff teams, by an average of 32.4 ppg. (Locked in at -6.5 at FOX Bet)

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Buccaneers ATS over Panthers

The Bucs are running out of offensive weapons. Still, they’re playing a Panthers team that has nothing going for it. Tampa just hammered Carolina in Charlotte two weeks ago and are 7-1 vs. teams out of the playoff race, winning those seven by 21.3 ppg. They feast on the weak, and the Panthers have dropped six straight. Only two of those were against quality opposition and they lost those by 17 and 26. (Locked in at -7.5 at BetMGM)

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Saints ATS over Falcons

This one is mostly about motivation. The Falcons are out of it, the Saints have to win to give themselves any shot. New Orleans has not fared well over the last few years in Atlanta, but are actually 5-3 on the road (overall and ATS).

Its last two on the road it blanked the Bucs and crushed the Jets. With a run-first offense and a defense that hasn’t allowed 185 yards passing in four straight weeks, the matchups favor the Saints. (Locked in at -4.5 at Caesars)

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About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.

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