NFL Week 3 Picks 2023: Top Picks, Predictions & Best Bets To Back Today

Week 3 of the NFL betting season finds a few teams ticketed for the playoffs before the season now fighting to stay viable in the playoff chase. 

The Cincinnati Bengals were a consensus pick to win the AFC North and compete for another Super Bowl berth three weeks ago. Now, they 0-2 overall, 0-2 in their division and 0-2 against the spread. Sunday, the Bengals were caught flat-pawed by the Ravens before making it close in a 27-24 loss. 

Don't expect any panic in the River City. The Bengals began 0-2 in 2022 but made the playoffs after winning 12 of their final 14 games. So they have a chance, but their margin for error has been all but eliminated. Since 1980, 176 teams started the season 0-3. Only six have made the playoffs, or 3.4%. The last team to turn that trick was the 2018 Houston Texans. 

The Bengals can find some inspiration this week. They face the LA Rams, they team they met in Super Bowl 56 in February 2022 at SoFi Stadium. 

The Rams won 23-20 but the Bengals grabbed the backdoor cover as 4.5-point underdogs. The Bengals went 12-4 straight up and ATS during the regular season. The Bengals lost and failed to cover at +1.5 against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs 23-20 in the AFC title game after splitting the first two rounds against the line. 

The Rams, meanwhile, dissolved. The defending champions finished 5-12 overall and 6-10-1 ATS.

The Bengals opened strong in NFL futures betting markets for both the AFC and Super Bowl. Heading into the season, Cincinnati was +550 to win the conference and +1200 to win its first-ever NFL title. They have since fallen to +800 to win the AFC and +1800 to win Super Bowl 58.

The Bengals' over under betting total opened at 11.5. It's down to 9.5 (-110 either way.) 

Week 3 begins with a the New York Giants riding high from their win at Arizona visiting  San Francisco on Thursday night. FOX has the late national game, which will feature a painful choice between the Cowboys at Cardinals or Bears at Chiefs. Most of the nation will get the Chicago-KC game. The Steelers and Raiders try to recreate 1972 Sunday night in Las Vegas. 

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NFL Week 3 Picks – Super Bowl 56 Rematch 

Here are our Week 3 best bets to back. Things are subject to change. Oddsmakers on betting apps have now set betting lines for Week 3 matchups. Here are our NFL Week 3 picks and best bets:

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Thursday, September 21

New York Giants at San Francisco Giants, 8:15 p.m. (Prime) 

The 49ers were 9-1 ATS as home underdogs last season. The Giants, meanwhile, were 7-2 as road dogs. There isn’t much an edge here either way. The 49ers have some stability at QB with Brock Purdy, and a solid 2-0 record. The Giants are full of surprises. 

They were down 60-0 in aggregate this season before finally scoring and rallying to beat the Cardinals 31-28. But New York failed to cover as a 5-point road favorite and is 0-2 on the line. As expected, this line has ballooned from San Francisco -5  to -10 this week. The 49ers were burned on the number in Week 2 thanks to Sean McVay's "Bad Beat" field goal. No one knows which version of Big Blue is going to show up. Back the Niners at -10. But beware the hook at 10.5.

Best Bet: 49ers -10 (-110) at DraftKings

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Sunday, September 24

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m. (CBS)

The Ravens need to feast on opponents like the Colts if they want to keep their lead in the AFC North. Not even the Colts know how their offense will look yet, especially with Anthony Richardson in concussion protocol after getting hit Sunday in a win and cover over the Texans. The Ravens and Lamar Jackson covered just once in 7 tries as home favorites last season. This line will likely to continue to move their favor as the game approaches. We liked the Ravens at -7. This number has gotten too pricy. Lock in the under at 44.5 

Best Bet: Under 45.5 Points (-110) at DraftKings

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Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Cleveland has held as a 4.5-point favorite, at least ahead of Monday night's game. The Browns crushed Cincinnati in their season opener and Deshaun Watson is fitting in as their franchise QB. The Titans held off the Chargers Sunday in the rain. They are 2-0 ATS. The Titans seem to find a way to cover and keep games close. We’re going to hold our nose, for now, and take those points. 

Best Bet: Titans +4.5 (-110) at DraftKings

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Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. (FOX)

The 1-1 Lions slid to 4.5-point home favorites following their flop at Ford Field against Seattle. The Falcons are putting together something special on offense. Even Desmond Ridder threw for 237 yards and TD Sunday in a 25-24 win over the Packers. Atlanta is a surprising 2-0 overall, but has already gotten the attention of oddsmakers and sits 1-1 on the line. The value for both of these teams has evaporated. We're sticking with the Lions. Meow.

Best Bet: Lions -4.5 (-110) at DraftKings

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New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m. (FOX)

The Packers continue to rebuild behind Jordan Love. Given the tattered state of the NFC South, the Saints are a potential playoff team with Derek Carr under center. Even though this is an outdoor road game, the weather in Wisconsin in late September often borders on perfect. That will be a non-factor in this one. The Packers have enough to pull off the win at home, especially with the Saints coming off a short week. 

Best Bet: Packers Moneyline (-125) at DraftKings

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. (FOX)

The Jaguars failed to cover last year in their three chances as home favorites. These teams split outright in 2022 and ATS, with the Jaguars losing 13-6 at home in Week 5. The Jaguars should recover after a tough loss to Kansas City and win. The Texans are 0-2 outright and ATS, despite nearly 400 passing yards from C.J. Stroud against the Colts. This line, however, is too much of an ask for the Jaguars to top. 

 Best Bet: Texans +9 (-110) at DraftKings

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Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m. (CBS)

The Dolphins opened as 3.5-points home favorites. Another early-season opportunity to jump on a line that was only headed in one direction. It has swelled to Miami -7. The Dolphins (2-0, 2-0) are loaded for an AFC East/playoff run. The Broncos are 0-2 on both ends. The Dolphins can beat you in the land, air, or sea. Raheem Mostert chewed up 121 yards rushing on 18 carries and scored twice on Bill Belichick's defense Sunday. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 466 yards in Week 1. 

And the Dolphins are aquatic mammals. More relevant here, a 1 p.m. South Florida kick means an excess of sun, heat and humidity for the Mile High visitors. We urged people to grab this one when it was Miami -3.5. We'll hang on for the 7.

Best Bet: Miami -7 (-110) at DraftKings

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LA Chargers at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. (FOX)

The Vikings have shifted from 1.5-point home underdogs to 1-point home favorites. Both teams are 0-2 outright. The Vikings stole a cover against the Eagles in Week 2. The Chargers are the better 0-2 team. Both teams made the playoffs only to get bounced in the Wild Card Round. The loser here is all but out of the playoff picture. In the past 42 seasons, 176 teams started 0-3. Only 6 made the playoffs, or 3.4%. Minnesota flailed at home, going 4-6 ATS last year, and lost to Tampa Bay in Week 1. The Chargers are 0-2 ATS and lost as road favorites Sunday at Tennessee. Hold your nose and back the over of 51.5 points. 

Best Bet: Over 51.5 Points (-110) at DraftKings

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New England Patriots at New York Jets, 1 p.m. (CBS)

The Patriots have beaten the Jets 14 straight times, while covering in the past five matchups. Pre-Aaron Rodgers injury, the Jets were 2.5 point favorites. They are now 2.5-point underdogs. The Jets melodrama continued Sunday as Zach Wilson ran for his life in Dallas. Cracks are beginning to form in Gang Green's "Hard Knocks" facade. 

Meanwhile, the winless Patriots (0-2 ATS) have been outscored 19-0 in the first quarter of their first two games/losses. A visit to MetLife is the perfect opportunity/last chance for the Patriots to avoid getting caught up in the Caleb Williams/Shedeur Sanders Sweepstakes. An 0-3 start all but dooms New England's playoff hopes, especially with two early losses in the AFC East. We're holding on the Patriots moneyline, even through the price has jumped from +150 to -124. 

Best Bet: Patriots Moneyline (-124) at DraftKings

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Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders, 1 p.m. (CBS)

The Bills badly underperformed against the line last season, going 8-9-1 ATS despite finishing 15-4 (including the postseason). They are 1-1 ATS and outright in 2023. Buffalo stampeded Las Vegas at home Sunday. The Commanders are a surprise 2-0 outright this season, pulling off a close-call win at Denver Sunday by stopping a 2-point conversion at the gun to avert OT. Josh Allen returned to form Sunday. The Commanders won't be able to keep pace. We'll stick with the Bills -6.5 despite the line movement after opening at -4.5.

Best Bet: Bills -6.5 (-110) at DraftKings

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Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

Geno Smith and Pete Carroll rediscovered their mojo at Ford Field on Sunday. They best host Detroit and covered with a TD in overtime as road dogs. This game offers a stiff road test for the Panthers emerging offense coming off a Monday night game and a cross-country trip. Seattle is 1-5 at home as the favorite since the start of the 2021 season. But this line offers value. The Seahawks should fly the wave from their win at Detroit and the noise of the "12s" for strong home victory and cover. 

Best Bet: Seahawks -4.5 (-110) at DraftKings

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Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Surprise stat of the week: both the Cowboys and Cardinals are 2-0 against the spread. The Cowboys have conquered Metropolis and Gotham this season Dallas outscored the NFL's two New Jersey entries by a combined 70-10 in Weeks 1-2. The Cardinals blew a 21-0 home lead Sunday before losing to the Giants 31-28. The crowd at State Farm Stadium is going look and sound like the same one at Jerry World. The 12.5-point line is more mirage than monster. Our preseason play was Dallas -6.5. Take Cowboys at their home-away-from home and give all those points. 

Best Bet: Cowboys -12.5 (-110) at DraftKings

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Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Since the start of the 2022 season, Kansas City is just 3-6-1 ATS as home favorites and 8-12-1 overall on the line through the Super Bowl. They did cover in that one. The Chiefs sputtered early against the Jaguars before nailing an ugly 17-9 win in Week 2. Patrick Mahomes II and Travis Kelce should be fully back to 2022 form. Justin Fields and the Bears offense have stayed in hibernation from last year. In lieu of the 12.5-point line, we'll go with the under on 49 points, KC can't do it all by itself. 

Best Bet: Under 49 points (-110) at DraftKings

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

The Raiders (1-1) surpassed the low expectations many set for them this season Sunday in Buffalo. Josh McDaniels, Jimmy Garoppolo, and whatever passes for the Raiders defense these days got smoked 38-10. Pittsburgh is coming off a tough Monday night game against divisional rival Cleveland. This could be a 'letdown game' for the Steelers no matter what happens against the Browns. Yet they are still a 1-point favorite. Are the Raiders THAT bad? Yes. They are.

Best Bet: Steelers Moneyline (-115) at DraftKings

Monday September, 25 

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7:15 p.m. (ABC)

The Eagles have earned their 2-0 start, playing sluggish ball before holding off New England and Minnesota. Tampa Bay was the worst team against the line last year with Tom Brady. They began the Post-Brady era 2-0 straight up and ATS. Perhaps all they need was Baker Mayfield. Tampa Bay's defense is legit. New England played Philly close on the road. This is Tampa Bay's biggest number as a home underdog since Week 2 of the 2019 season, before they signed Brady. The Bucs are getting little respect from oddsmakers. Take advantage. 

Best Bet: Buccaneers +6.5 (-110) at DraftKings

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Monday, September 25

LA Rams at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

The Cincinnati Bengals were a consensus pick to win the AFC North and compete for another Super Bowl berth three weeks ago. Now, they 0-2 overall, 0-2 in their division and 0-2 against the spread. Sunday, the Bengals were caught flat-pawed by the Ravens before making it close in a 27-24 loss. 

Don't expect any panic in the River City. Last year, the Bengals also began the season 0-2 but made the playoffs after winning 12 of their final 14 games. This Super Bowl 56 rematch has seen the line halved since it opened. The Bengals are now down to 3.5-point favorites at home to avoid an 0-3 start. A purr-fect number. 

Best Bet: Cincinnati -3.5 (-110) at DraftKings

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