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NFL Week 4 Picks 2023: Top Picks, Predictions & Best Bets To Back Today

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 31 mins

NFL Week 4 Picks 2023: Top Picks, Predictions & Best Bets To Back Today

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Week 4 of the NFL betting season was originally scripted to feature a prime-time clash between Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers

But the writers were on strike, and A-Rod got injured in Week 1, ending his season. But now that Taylor Swift has taken over the NFL, along with the rest of the planet, The Shield should just fine. 

What we will get in Week 4 is the best and worst matchup of the young season - both occurring at 1 p.m. on Sunday. 

Charles Dickens tipped us off back in the day. 

"It was the best of times. It was the worst of times."

The Miami Dolphins swim upstream to Buffalo in an AFC East showdown. The Dolphins are the only perfect team in the league in terms of being 3-0 straight up and against the spread heading into Monday night. 

Miami scored a post-NFL merger high 70 points in crushing the Broncos by 50 points in South Florida in Week 3. The Dolphins had a shot to tie the NFL record of 73 points, but Mike McDaniel had bigger concerns - namely the Bills this week. 

Buffalo has recovered from its Week 1 "what the (expletive) just happened" loss to the Jets. The Bills offensive tore it up 75-13 combined in Weeks 2 and 3. 

Windy City Stinker: Broncos-Bears 

NFL Purgatory visits the shore of Lake Michigan. The Bears play host to the Broncos. Those teams are combined 0-6 straight up and ATS. The Broncos were on the wrong end of that 70-20 drubbing in Miami Gardens Sunday. The Bears got swept away by a flood of Red-clad Swifites, and the Chiefs rushing game.

The first international game of the kicks off earlier in the day Sunday at London’s Wembley Stadium. This will be the last week of the season until Thanksgiving Day with a complete 16-game schedule. The byes begin in Week 5 with the Browns, Chargers, Seahawks, and Buccaneers getting early-season breaks. 

Week 4 begins with an old-school NFC North clash with some sudden punch. The Lions visit Green Bay Thursday night. Check out our best bets and picks to back for all 16 games below.

NFL Week 4 Picks – Best Of Times, Worst Of Times

Here are our Week 4 best bets to back. Things are subject to change.

Oddsmakers on betting apps have now set betting lines for Week 4 matchups. Here are our NFL Week 4 picks and best bets: 

DateMatchupWeek 4 Picks
Thursday, Sept. 28Lions @ Packers Lions ATS
Sunday, October 1 Falcons @ Jaguars (London) Falcons ML
Sunday, October 1 Dolphins @ Bills Dolphins ATS
Sunday, October 1 Vikings @ Panthers Vikings ATS
Sunday, October 1 Broncos @ Bears Under Points Total
Sunday, October 1 Ravens @ Browns Browns Moneyline
Sunday, October 1 Steelers @ Texans Texans Moneyline
Sunday, October 1 Rams @ Colts Under Points Total
Sunday, October 1 Buccaneers @ Saints Under Points Total
Sunday, October 1 Commanders @ Eagles Eagles ATS
Sunday, October 1 Bengals @ Titans Titans ATS
Sunday, October 1 Raiders @ Chargers Chargers ATS
Sunday, October 1 Patriots @ Cowboys Patriots ATS
Sunday, October 1 Cardinals @ 49ers 49ers ATS
Sunday, October 1 Chiefs @ Jets Chiefs ATS
Sunday, October 2 Seahawks @ Giants Seahawks Moneyline

All NFL Week 4 best bet odds via DraftKings Sportsbook are accurate as of publication. Our picks are subject to change. Use the BetMGM promo code BOOKIESPICKS to get a $1,000 first bet for your NFL picks.


Thursday, September 28

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)

A terrific illustration of how the NFC North narrative has flipped in just two seasons. The Lions are chasing a division title. The Packers are trying to put the puzzle back together with Jordan Love as the QB of the present and future. Both teams are tied at 2-1. This should be a fun one to watch. The Lions should have the edge on both sides. The Packers may have unloaded their playbook with their Week 2 win. Jared Goff needs to keep the interceptions to a minimum.

Best Bet: Lions -1 (-112) at DraftKings

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Sunday, October 1

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (London), 9:30 a.m. (ESPN+) 

The London-Someday Jaguars play the first of two back-to-back games in England. Wembley Stadium is their home-away-from-home. The Falcons are new to the international game thing. But this line is too steep for a neutral site affair, especially given the struggles of the Jaguars of late, and the developing Falcons' offense. We like the Falcons to win outright, so the line movement from +4 to +3 is not a concern. 

Best Bet: Falcons Moneyline (+130) at DraftKings

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m. (CBS)

A pivotal and must-win AFC East matchup for the host Bills. They need to assert home field dominance over Miami or the Dolphins will take the early-season edge to end the Bills’ run as division champs. The Dolphins can be slowed - as the Patriots demonstrated in Week 2. All signs point to a Pointsapalooza. But we're not going to take the cheese on the 53.5 total. The Dolphins are for real. And they can run the ball. 17-0 anyone? 

Best Bet: Dolphins +2.5 (-102) at DraftKings

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Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Another fetid showdown. The Panthers and Vikings are 0-3 straight up. Each has earned one tie ATS. The Chargers tried to give the Vikings a win in Week 2, but Kirk Cousins happily rejected the offer by tossing a pick in the end zone with 12 seconds to play. The Panthers continue their reconstruction and could be in a spot to load up on draft picks since they already have their QB of the present in future. This line has swelled from 1.5 to 3, but the Vikings are poised for a rare road win. 

Best Bet: Vikings -3 (-110) at DraftKings

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. (CBS)

The stench of the Chicago Stockyards had nothing on this affair. Upton Sinclair would have included this matchup in his historic tome "The Jungle," but he didn't have NFL Sunday Ticket.  Justin Fields remains in hibernation. Denver coach Sean Payton has become the NFL's embodiment of the "Old Man Yells At Cloud" meme. But there's always opportunity in calamity. The total in this game has risen to 46.5 from 44.5. We're not sure why, but who's complaining. Take the under and look away. Or watch the Bills-Dolphins. 

 Best Bet: Under 46.5 Points (-112) at DraftKings

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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m. (CBS)

This line has doubled since the Browns opened as 1-point favorites. This reflects concerns about the Ravens’ offense – even with a happy and wealthy Lamar Jackson – and the belief that Deshaun Watson will keep the Browns offense humming. Or humming enough to keep pace with the Ravens in what should be a good, new-fashioned AFC North rock fight. The Browns bounced back from a Week 2 loss with a dominant effort from their defense in a 27-3 win over Tennessee. 

Best Bet: Browns Moneyline (-120) at DraftKings

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans, 1 p.m. (CBS)

The Steelers held off the woeful Raiders Sunday night. The Texans remain home underdogs after whipping the Jaguars in Jacksonville 37-17 in a game that wasn't even that close. C.J. Stroud hung 280 yards and a pair of TDs on Jacksonville's defense. He will be tested by Pittsburgh's front. But he's showing some steel as a rookie. And the Texans defense can hold its own against Kenny PIckett. This line peaked at Pittsburgh -4.5 before backsliding to 3. No worries here. We like the home team to win outright at +130. 

Best Bet: Texans Moneyline (+130) at DraftKings

LA Rams at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. (FOX)

The Colts are 1-point home favorites after opening as 1-point home underdogs. The status of Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson remains uncertain due to a concussion. But Minshew Mania lives. More importantly, the Colts are 2-1 thanks to their emerging defense. The Rams will be traveling east on a short week after playing host to Cincinnati Monday night. No need to break the Enigma code here. Points will be at a premium. This total is too high. 

Best Bet: Under 45 Points (-110) at DraftKings

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m. (FOX)

The Saints are probably disappointed Tom Brady retired. They beat Brady both in New Orleans and in Tampa Bay when he quarterbacked the Bucs. The Saints blew a 17-0 lead at Green Bay and may have lost Derek Carr in the process. Tampa Bay is looking to go 3-0 ATS and straight-up behind Baker Mayfield Monday night. This game could be a let-down of sorts for the Bucs hitting the road after a mega-Monday night showdown at Ray-Jay against Philly. This line has already tightened a point from New Orleans -4 to -3.  No matter. We're staying in our safe space. 

Best Bet: Under 40.5 Points (-110) at DraftKings

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles 1 p.m. (FOX)

The Commanders were exposed in Week 3 by the Bills. Washington was 2-0/2-0 before landing on the wrong side of a 37-3 rout. After averaging 27.5 PPG, Sam Howell's offense tumbled back to reality as they averaged a meager 3.3 yards per pass attempt. The Commanders were easily handled by a better team with a more talented roster. The Eagles fit that bill. Philly was just 10-10 ATS last year, despite reaching the Super Bowl. Philly wants to assert dominance in the NFC East. Watch the hook on 7.5 points, but they should get over the hump here. 

Best Bet: Eagles -7 (-110) at DraftKings

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Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. (FOX)

This line has seen the biggest movement of any in Week 4. The Bengals opened as 4.5-point favorites. They have since slipped to 1.5-point underdogs. Cincinnati has beaten Tennessee in Nashville during each of the past two seasons, winning by a combined 7 points. But the Titans covered the last time these two teams met in Nashville. The injury-plagued Bengals were 0-2 before Monday night's game. An 0-3 start is all but unthinkable. The Titans are the prototypical up-and-down NFL franchise. And this is an up week. 

Best Bet: Titans -1.5 (-110) at DraftKings

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Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

The sizzle has evaporated from this rivalry the once electrified Oakland and San Diego. Brandon Staley and Josh McDaniels are set to start in the next sequel of "Clueless." The loser of this game should hold the inside track in our First NFL Coach Fired Tracker along with Chicago's Matt Eberflus. This will look and sound like a “home game” for the Raiders, who played in Los Angeles from 1982-94. Despite the road-team feel, the Chargers found something to build on against Minnesota and should pile up the points on the Raiders. 

Best Bet: Chargers -4 (-110) at DraftKings

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

The Cardinals shocked the world with their 28-16 win over Dallas, winning outright as 12.5-point underdogs. Now that Jonathan Gannon's Cardinals have their win for the season, expect a sobering descent back into this Meta Verse at Levi's Stadium in Week 4. The 49ers and Dolphins have risen above the rest of the NFL in terms of 2023 Elite Status. San Francisco has the added bonus of being at home, coming off an extended layoff, and win over the Giants at home on Thursday in Week 3. This line has expanded from 9.5 (when we locked in Niners) to 14.5. Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and CMC should have it covered. Figuratively and literally. 

Best Bet: 49ers -14.5 (-110) at DraftKings

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New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

This line has shown serious pliability. The Cowboys opened as 3.5-point favorites but the number has since stretched to 6.5. The Cowboys yielded 222 yards rushing in that loss to the Cardinals. That is honey to Bill Belichick and Bill O'Brien. This game marks the return to Zeke Elliott to Dallas, Elliott ran for 80 yards on 16 carries against the Jets in the slog at MetLife. The Patriots also kept the Dolphins' offense in check - for the most part - Week 2. Since all signs point to the Patriots running the ball all day - look for O'Brien to push Mac Jones to exploit the post-Trevon Diggs Cowboys secondary. New England's defense just needs to keep it close and force Dak Prescott into creating turnovers. 

Best Bet: Patriots +6.5 (-110) at DraftKings

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

What could have been? This was to be the first of several “Super Bowls” for the Jets this season. Aaron Rodgers vs. Patrick Mahomes. Oddsmakers were exposed as they opened the Chiefs as 1-point favorites. Since Rodgers's injury and the non-stop regression of Zach Wilson, the line is now Chiefs -9. We grabbed the Chiefs moneyline when it was -115. It's now up to -410. Andy Reid and Chiefs are in the process of diversifying their offense and developing their running game so that Mahomes has other options besides Travis Kelce come playoff time. If Taylor Swift shows up at MetLife, expect a riot regardless of the outcome. 

Best Bet: Chiefs -9 (-112) at DraftKings

Monday, October 2

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN) 

The back-end of another MetLife Stadium prime-time doubleheader has the Giants playing host to Seattle. This line has flipped 2.5 points. The Giants opened as 1-point favorites, They are now 1.5-point home underdogs. Big Blue has some extra time to regroup after a 30-12 Week 3 Thursday night loss to the 49ers. But it won't be enough. Geno Smith and Pete Carroll continued their wizardry in Week 3. Kenneth Walker, meanwhile, keeps playing keep-away after running for 97 yards and 2 TDs in Week 3. 

Best Bet: Seahawks Moneyline (-120) at DraftKings

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.