Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

By Adam Thompson | | 3 mins

NFL Week 4 Survivor Pool: Play It Safe With Buffalo Bills?

NFL Week 4 Survivor Pool: Play It Safe With Buffalo Bills?
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NFL Survivor Pools have exploded in popularity, and at levels for all kinds of NFL betting fans, from family pools to those with thousands of dollars in cash prizes on the line at betting sites.

Last season, we went 16-1 and didn’t suffer our first defeat until Week 9. This season, we’re 2-1 after a hiccup in Week 1 (thanks, New England Patriots). Here’s our most confident picks (remember, we can’t pick the same team twice in one season).

With these kinds of NFL picks, it’s just like the moneyline: Just win, baby. While it makes sense to save some of the biggest NFL odds favorite for a future week, sometimes you just have to grab it. This is one of those weeks.


RELATED: NFL Week 4 Odds & Analysis On Every Game


NFL Week 4 Pick: Buffalo Bills

The Bills are favored by more than two touchdowns at sportsbooks, as they welcome the woeful Houston Texans to town. There is little debate that Buffalo not only should win here but be relatively unchallenged, as evidenced by the latest Bills vs Texans odds. They’re heating up and the Texans, with rookie Davis Mills now at QB, are going in the opposite direction since handling the Jaguars in Week 1.

We know Buffalo is a safe bet here, but the question is, should we be saving them for a future week? They’re going to have other highly winnable games on their schedule, namely two vs. the Jets. It’s a debate to be had.

In other weeks and other years, we would like to hold onto a team the caliber of Buffalo. But the NFL Week 4 schedule is full of potential pitfalls. Only three other teams are favored by a TD or more on betting apps. All three of them – the Saints, Titans and Chiefs – are all teams worth holding for a future week, too. Two of them are on the road; they should win, but an unlikely upset becomes slightly less unlikely.

Buffalo, at home, against a downtrodden opponent, should allow us to breathe easy. It’s an easy pick, but also the right pick for Week 4.

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Other Week 3 Contenders

Tennessee Titans: Any unused team playing the Jets is worth considering. New York’s defense is solid, however, and the game is in New York.

New Orleans Saints: The Saints have been inconsistent, and eventually Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley are going to click.

Green Bay Packers: The Packers have back-to-back prime time wins, and the Steelers look lost.

2021 Picks

Week 1: New England Patriots – LOSS

Week 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – WIN

Week 3: Denver Broncos – WIN

About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com.