NFL Week 7 Picks & Predictions For Every Game: Music City Mayhem
The Tennessee Titans play host to the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday in Music City. The Chiefs (3-3 overall and 2-4 against the spread) are sharing space at the bottom of the AFC West with the Denver Broncos. But Patrick Mahomes II has won two of three and the two-time defending conference champions are just two weeks away from potentially being alone in first place. The Chiefs routed Washington last week to cover for just the fourth time in 17 games (including the postseason).
RELATED: NFL Week 7 Odds & Our Free NFL Picks
Those setting NFL odds continue to push the public’s affinity for Mahomes’ skills. Oddsmakers have the Chiefs as 5.5-point favorites on the road in Nashville. Kansas City opened as 3.5-point favorites when this line was first set.
Meanwhile, the Titans (4-2/4-2) and Derrick Henry plucked and stuffed the Bills 34-31 Monday night. This week marks the second straight week they are home underdogs by more than 5 points. Tennessee is poised to win the AFC South by default and has won two straight.
Will Henry’s powerful legs carry the day here? Or can Mahomes use his arm to get over .500 and move into position to lead the AFC West?
There are several monstrous betting lines this week, as the books look to recover from their worst week of the season. Finally, this week’s schedule is trimmed down to 13 games, as six teams are on the bye.
On to our Week 7 NFL picks:
Thursday, Oct. 21
Broncos at Browns, 8:20 p.m. (FOX)
The NFL season has reached its “War Of Attrition” stage in Cleveland. The Browns will be without Baker Mayfield at QB, sidelined for the first time since 2018 due to a left shoulder injury. Journeyman Case Keenum will start for Mayfield. The Browns will also be without running back Nick Chubb. Teddy Bridgewater could not get airborne against the Raiders in Week 6, averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt. The Broncos also committed four turnovers in a 34-24 home loss.Best Bet: Denver ML (+110) at BetMGM
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Sunday, Oct. 24
Carolina Panthers (-3) at New York Giants, 1 p.m. (FOX)
It’s been a rough autumn for sports fans in Gotham and its surrounding environs. Kyrie Irving is MIA in Brooklyn. The Yankees got bounced by Boston and then rehired Aaron Boone. The Jets are playing again this week after resting in Week 6. The Mets are . . . well, the Mets. The Giants have added to their collective misery with another terrible, no good, very bad season. Sam Darnold’s homecoming should only add to the malaise, even without Christian McCaffrey. The Giants defense is giving up more than 400 yards per game.Best Bet: Carolina ML (-150) at bet365
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Jets at Patriots, 1 p.m. (CBS)
This is the second matchup of first-round rookie QBs Mac Jones and Zach Wilson. Jones and the Patriots won Round 1 in Week 2 by a 25-6 score, as Bill Belichick ran his record to 23-6 against rookie QBs. The Patriots last week yielded 567 yards of total offense to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. But the Jets don’t have anything similar offensively. New England has won 11 straight in this “rivalry.”
The prospect of the Red Sox being eliminated from the ALCS and the Patriots losing to the Jets in the same weekend is something of a nightmare for New Englanders spoiled in the past 20 years.Best Bet: Over 42.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM
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Chiefs at Titans, 1 p.m. (CBS)
The Chiefs fixed much what was wrong last week in a 31-13 rout of Washington in Week 6. Mahomes passed for 397 yards, with two TDs and two INTs, and the defense kept WFT to just one TD.
Henry has been on a rushing rampage of late, averaging 145.5 yards on the ground over the past four games. The Titans clicked against the Bills, whose defense is much tougher than the one in Kansas City that gave up 454 yards to the Eagles. The movement on this line has made the Titans attractive, even though it’s always hard to come back after a Monday night win.Best Bet: Tennessee +5.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM
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Washington Football Team at Packers, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Aaron Rodgers owns Chicago, not to mention Green Bay. The Packers are home this week against the Washington Football Team, which is so bad it doesn’t even have a name, never mind an offense. The Packers have averaged 28 PPG since that Week 1 mirage loss to New Orleans. Rodgers should have no problem posting big numbers as he looks to inject himself back into the MVP race for a possible repeat. This line has moved three points since opening at 6.5.Best Bet: Green Bay -9.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM
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Falcons at Dolphins, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Two of the worst teams in the NFL meet up in a game on which only the daring would wager. That’s why we’re here. QB Tua Tagovailoa returned last week for Miami, only to lead the Dolphins to a 23-20 loss to Jacksonville in London. Neither defense offers much of a challenge. The Falcons are 28th in the NFL when it comes to allowing points, and the Dolphins are yielding 417.8 YPG. Look for a lot of Matt Ryan-to-Kyle Pitts.Best Bet: Falcons ML (-134) at FanDuel
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Bengals at Ravens (-6.5), 1 p.m. (CBS)
Joe Burrow and the Bengals are 4-2. Cincy would share possession of first place with Baltimore – and hold the tiebreaker – with a win at Baltimore on Sunday. The Ravens, meanwhile, short-circuited the Chargers in Week 6 at home 34-6. Baltimore’s defense could be the difference here. The Ravens have won five in a row over Cincinnati, crushing the line in their past three outings.Best Bet: Under 47 Points (-110) at DraftKings
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Eagles at Raiders, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
The Raiders are 1-0 in the post-Jon Gruden Era. Las Vegas rose to the occasion last week against a subpar Broncos team after Gruden was moved to the email junk folder. Zach Ertz was shipped from Philly to Arizona a day after the Eagles tried but failed to come back against Tom Brady and the Bucs.
Was last week an anomaly for the Raiders? After all, they won 34-24 after scoring 23 points total in their previous two games, and holding Denver to 10 points until the fourth quarter.Best Bet: Eagles +3 (+100) at PointsBet
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Lions at Rams, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
The Lions are winless (0-6) overall but 3-3 against the spread. They’ve been on the long side of some big lines this season. This week is no different, as Cryin’ Dan Campbell’s team is getting two touchdowns on the road at SoFi Stadium against the Rams.
Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff face their former teams for the first time in this one. Both QBs should be extra motivated. But only one ranks third in passing and leads an offense that’s scored 26 or more points in every game this season. That would be Stafford, whose Rams are 5-1 overall and 4-2 ATS. Goff, meanwhile, has the worst QBR of any non-rookie passer. All season, we’ve been of the mind that bettors should not be swayed by big lines in these sorts of mismatches. Look for an indoor track meet here.Best Bet: Rams -14.5 (-110) at DraftKings
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Texans at Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
The Cardinals (6-0/5-1) remain the lone unbeaten team in the league and demolished the Browns in Cleveland last week. Kyler Murray is the co-leader in MVP betting markets with Dak Prescott and could put up Madden numbers here. Hence one reason for the monster, three-score line. Rookie Davis Mills has had the toughest task of any of the six first-year quarterbacks in the NFL this season. He has to run the Texans’ offense. Like the Lions, the Texans are 3-3 against the spread despite having only one win outright. But they have been trending toward oblivion. Arizona hasn’t beaten anyone at home by more than 17 points this season. Arizona sports betting fans should jump on the Over.Best Bet: Over 47 Points (-115) at DraftKings
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Bears at Buccaneers, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
The Buccaneers are 5-1 overall but have covered just twice this season. But both of those covers were on double-digit lines. This line has shrunk a full point since it was posted. Tom Brady is having a season for the ages at age 44 and leads the NFL with 2,064 yards passing and is second with 17 touchdowns (one behind Mahomes at 18). Rodgers lit up Chicago's defense for 3 TD passes last week. QB Justin Fields, who was a year old when Brady was drafted, leads the Bears. Tampa Bay’s secondary is still awful, but Fields will face unrelenting pressure all day when Chicago isn’t trying to run the ball. The Bears beat Brady last year. Beware. He never forgets.Best Bet: Buccaneers -12.5 (-110) at FanDuel
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Colts at 49ers, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
The Niners are coming off a bye but continue to drift toward major disappointment this season. The inability to go all-in with either Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback remains at the epicenter of the 49ers’ troubles. Kyle Shanahan needs to make the call once and for all and Garoppolo needs to stay healthy. San Francisco has lost three straight and will rely mainly on its defense until things are settled on the offensive side of the ball. The Colts are a solid 4-2 against the spread but otherwise stuck in NFL purgatory at 2-4 straight-up.Best Bet: Colts +4.5 (-105) at BetMGM
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Monday, Oct. 25
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)
The Saints are poised for a strong second-third of the season thanks to Alvin Kamara and stingy defense. Sean Payton has kept Jameis Winston from beating himself by limiting his deep throws. Winston has 12 TDs against just three picks, but is 31st in total passing yards .
Geno Smith isn’t going to lead the Seahawks anywhere and the newly vaccinated Cam Newton rumors are gathering momentum in the Emerald City. Russell Wilson remains out with a finger injury.Best Bet: Saints -4.5 (-110) at BetMGM
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Teams on Bye Week: Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers
Last Week: 8-6