Best NFL Championship Weekend Parlay: Eagles, Bills & More

By Adam Thompson Jan 24th, 2025 9:28 PM EDT

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Remember the old adage “defense wins championships”? That’s less true than it used to be.

In seven of the last eight Super Bowls, both teams ranked in the Top 8 in the NFL in scoring for the season. The one exception was last year when the Chiefs ranked 14th and Philadelphia ranked 2nd – those teams ranked 2nd and 4th, respectively, in scoring defense.

The offense-first mantra is good news for three of the four teams playing on Conference Championship Sunday. The Commanders (No. 4 in scoring) face the Eagles (No. 7) while the Bills (No. 2) take on the Chiefs (No. 15).

KC has a history against it, but it also has Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, after all, and had very similar ratings going into last year’s AFC Championship. And if you believe defense may be making a comeback after last season, the Eagles (No. 1) and Chiefs (No. 3) get the nod over the Bills (No. 8) and Commanders (No. 18).

Bookies.com senior handicapper Adam Thompson has his finger on the pulse of the NFL. Thompson is on track for hitting over 60% of his NFL NFL best bets for a fourth-consecutive season. Here is his top parlay play for Championship Weekend

Intriguing NFL Championship Weekend Parlay

NFL Parlay	NFL Odds
PHI ATS, Josh Allen TD, Knox Over Yds	+599 at BetMGM

Odds are current as of publication but subject to change. For the most updated NFL odds, please check the betting apps.

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The “Super Bowl Bound” Parlay

Leg 1: Eagles -6 over Commanders

But the Eagles don’t want to throw the ball anyway, and Saquon Barkley has crushed the Commanders’ poor run D to 296 yards and four TDs in two games. Only the Browns allow more yards per rush attempt on the road than the 5.1 allowed by WSH, and its 7.7 yards per pass attempt on the road ranked 30th, meaning the hobbled Jalen Hurts could have himself a day if Washington puts too many resources into slowing Saquon. On the flip side, the Eagles gave up just 16 ppg at home all season. Jayden Daniels has been everything to Washington, but it gets tougher against Philly’s fourth-ranked pass D. Washington was aided massively by Jared Goff last week (five turnovers). Jalen Hurts has one INT since Week 3.

Leg 2: Saquon Barkley, Over 128.5 Rushing Yards

The number sounds ludicrous, but it’s actually below his season average of 129.4, and way below his average against the Commanders, as he’s already gone for 150 and 146 (plus two TDs in each game). The Commanders are among the very bottom of NFL rush defenses, and Philly has enough weapons to keep Washington honest. Saquon has runs of at least 34 yards in eight games, and 50-plus runs in six of them. He’ll break one eventually.

Leg 3: Dawson Knox, Over 15.5 Receiving Yards

The Bills tight end hasn’t been a top target for Allen, but oddsmakers aren’t asking for much here, and he’s getting more and more playing time over Dalton Kincaid. Knox registered 2-for-38 vs. the Broncos two weeks ago and has at least 22 receiving yards in seven of the last nine games. KC is a good matchup, as no team allows more yards to TEs than the Chiefs, at just over 70 per game.

About the Author

Adam Thompson

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Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.