NFC East rivals fight for the division lead on Thursday Night Football for Week 11, as Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles host Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders. 

The Eagles (7-2) have won five in a row, while the Commanders (7-3) had a three-game win streak snapped with a 28-27 loss to the Steelers. A win here goes a long way to a possible home game or even first-round bye in the NFC Playoffs. 

Philly is at -3.5 in the latest Commanders vs. Eagles NFL odds , while the Over/Under has risen two points this week to 48.5 points. 

Bookies.com veteran NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on a whopping 60.2% of his NFL picks five years running, reveals his plays for this TNF showdown. 

Commanders vs. Eagles Betting Predictions

Commanders vs. Eagles Point Spread

Washington’s offensive line is banged up, with up to three starters’ availability in question on this short week. That line faces an Eagles defense that has allowed over 17 points just once in the last five weeks. 

The Philly offense is finally healthy, too. The team averages over 30 ppg when A.J. Brown plays, and he’s playing here. The Commanders are 7-3, but against teams currently in a playoff spot, they’re 1-2 with the win back in Week 4 against since-improved Arizona. Back the Eagles to cover as the top play of TNF Week 11. 

Commanders vs. Eagles Over/Under

While the Eagles have the advantages to win and cover, both teams have paths to score points. Seven of the last eight Commanders games have totaled at least 47 points. The Eagles score points when Brown is on the field, and Washington can do its part. 

The Over has hit in all five Commanders road games, so we’re backing them scoring in the 20s. The Eagles can do that, and then some. Go with the Over as a secondary play. 

Commanders vs. Eagles Moneyline

The Eagles are at -192 on the moneyline, so it would take a $192 wager to win $100 in profit on a Philly victory. The underdog Commanders are at +160 (wager $100 to win $160). We like Philadelphia to cover, and thus obviously win outright, but is the moneyline worth a play? 

The Eagles are playing well and have won five in a row, but are only 3-4 against the spread when favored. Most of those ATS losses were a while back, and all were to non-playoff contenders. Washington can certainly surprise here and pull the upset, so we’ll stick with the spread and avoid the big odds. 

Commanders vs. Eagles Top Player Props

Saquon Barkley, Under 13.5 Receiving Yards 

Saquon is in the lineup to run the rock, and he’s one of the top RBs in the NFL at it, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. When it comes to catching balls out of the backfield, production has been sporadic. Only once in the last five games has Barkley gone over 13 receiving yards. Washington ranks No. 1 in the NFL in fewest receptions and receiving yards by RBs. 

NFL Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Zach Ertz, Under 35.5 Receiving Yards 

The Commanders tight end comes back to Philly where he went to three Pro Bowls in eight-plus seasons. The Eagles defense has been tough on TDs, especially in the red zone (zero TDs to the position). Ertz has been consistent in catches but inconsistent in yardage. The last two games, the totals have been 31 and 5. 

NFL Odds: -115 at BetMGM