Chiefs vs. Jaguars Betting Odds, Predictions & Best Bets For Monday Night Football

By Adam Thompson Oct 6th, 2025 12:10 PM EDT

[US, Mexico & Canada customers only] Sep 5, 2025; Sao Paulo, BRAZIL; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates scoring a touchdown against the Los Angeles Chargers in the second half during a NFL game at Corinthians Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jean Carniel/Reuters via Imagn Images

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Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars look to keep their strong start going when they host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football for Week 5 of the NFL season.

The Jaguars are 3-1 and are eager to display their talents on the national stage. It’s only the third Monday Night Football appears for the Jaguars since 2011. The dynastic Chiefs (2-2) are used to the big stage; Mahomes is 9-3 on MNF.

The latest Chiefs vs. Jaguars NFL odds has road-side KC favored by 3.5 points, a line that’s unchanged through the week. The Over/Under for total points is at 46.

Bookies.com veteran NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on a whopping 60.2% of his NFL picks five years running and 63.3% so far in 2025, reveals his plays for this prime time matchup.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars Betting Predictions

Chiefs vs. Jaguars Point Spread

People began wondering if the Chiefs’ amazing run of dominance was nearing an end after starting the season 0-2. But those losses were to the Chargers and Eagles, each by less than a TD. Since then, they’ve demolished the Giants and the rival Ravens.

The Jaguars are winning games, but Lawrence is still shaky and the offense has relied on big plays from the run game, something KC doesn’t give up easily. The line is begging us to back the home Jaguars, but a resurgent offense and the Monday night moxie of Mahomes is enough to lay the points with the Chiefs.

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Chiefs vs. Jaguars Over/Under

The path to scoring isn’t clear for either side, but especially tricky for the Jaguars, who rank 26th in rush yards and 27th in pass yards. Each team is giving up under 20 ppg on the season.

The Under has hit in Jacksonville’s two home games (36 and 27 points scored). Expect the KC offense to make a play or two, but for the score to remain down. Back the Under as a secondary play.

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Chiefs vs. Jaguars Same Game Parlay

Travis Kelce, Over 42.5 Receiving Yards:

The Jaguars rank fifth in zone defense usage, and the Chiefs TE still has the chops to find the open spot. He also gets up for the prime time games. KC has two Monday nighters last season, and Kelce has 23 receptions for 170 yards combined.

NFL Odds: Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-112) at Caesars

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Chiefs -3.5:

This is a potential coming-out party for Lawrence and the Jaguars, but it’s a tough ask against the QB, the coach and the team that’s been there, done that more than any other.

NFL Odds: Chiefs -3.5 (-110) at Caesars

Same Game Parlay Odds: +235

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About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.

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