Panthers At Texans NFL Week 3 TNF Betting Predictions & Picks

Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EDT

The Carolina Panthers, one of the surprise 2-0 teams in the NFL, get the national spotlight on Thursday Night Football when they face the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. The Panthers blew past the New Orleans Saints 26-7 on Sunday, while the Texans (1-1) lost by 10 to the Browns one week after hammering the Jaguars.

Sportsbooks have Carolina as a 7.5-point favorite, with betting sites and top betting apps moving the line four whole points in the first 24 hours after opening at -3.5.

Take a look at Panthers vs Texans odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

RELATED: NFL Week 3 Odds & Analysis For All 16 Games

Panthers vs. Texans Key Matchups

Brandin Cooks vs. Carolina Pass D: The Panthers have allowed a stunning six receptions to WRs over two games. Cooks has 14 receptions, and 21 targets for Houston – more than triple anyone else on the roster.

Christian McCaffrey vs. Texans Run Defense: In Houston’s win, it allowed 76 rushing yards. In the loss, that number was 156. McCaffrey has 20-plus attempts the first two games.

Texans Scoring vs. Panthers Defending: The Over has hit in Houston’s last four games, while the Under has cashed in the last five for Carolina.

RELATED: NFL Week 3 Odds & Betting Lines For All 16 Games

5 Key Panthers vs. Texans Stats

3.1: The yards per carry average for Houston’s Mark Ingram, among the lowest in NFL starts. Carolina is allowing just over one yard per attempt through two games.

21: QB hits by the Panthers defense through two games, along with 10 QB sacks. That’s No. 1 in the NFL in both statistics.

47: The completion percentage for rookie Davis Mills in three preseason games and Sunday’s Week 2 game vs. Cleveland. He’s tossed three TDs and five INTs.

292: Average yards passing for Sam Darnold so far. The former Jets starter has never averaged more than 233 ypg in a season.

315: Total yards from scrimmage for Christian McCaffrey, tops in the NFL.

Panthers vs. Texans Player Props To Consider

Brandin Cooks, Over 5.5 Receptions

Odds: -105 at DraftKings

When Davis Mills came into the game he passed the ball 18 times. Of those 18, 11 were caught or intended for Cooks. They’ll work together a lot on Thursday, even if it means shorter attempts, to get the ball to their top playmaker.

Terrace Marshall, Over 28.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at PointsBet

The Panthers No. 3 WR has three receptions in each game, for 26 and 17 yards. But he’s on the field in more than half of the snaps and should produce more as he and Sam Darnold find rhythm.

Mark Ingram, Over 9.5 Carries

Odds: -125 at DraftKings

Ingram has at least 14 carries in each of the first two games. Carolina is likely to stack the box and dare the Texans and Davis Mills to pass the ball. But Houston will want to establish the run; Ingram will get his chance to make an impact.

Mark Ingram, Over 35.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -114 at FanDuel

Ingram faces a tough challenge vs. a Carolina defense prioritizing to stop him. He’s gained 85 and 41 yards in the first two games.

Sam Darnold 250 Pass Yards & Panthers Win

Odds: +100 at FOX Bet

Defenses have focused on Christian McCaffrey, and Darnold has made them pay. He’s thrown for 279 and 305 yards in the two games, both wins. Houston is allowing 273 ypg through the air.

Panthers vs. Texans Weather Forecast

Thursday is slated to be a sunny day in Houston with a moderate high of only 80 degrees, down from 94 just two days earlier. None of this matters once kickoff happens – NRG Stadium is covered.

Panthers vs. Texans Moneyline

The Panthers are a solid -380 on the moneyline, meaning a $380 wager would win $100 in profit. On the other side, Houston is at +290 (+100 wins $290 in profit). Carolina offers a big price tag, but is it worth it?

On this analysis, no. Carolina is certainly clicking, but Houston dominated the Jaguars in their home opener as an underdog. Losing QB Tyrod Taylor is a big blow for the Texans, but rookie Davis Mills got his feet wet in Week 2. The price is too high for the Panthers here, but we’re not backing the Texans in any situation.

Panthers vs. Texans Point Spread

NFL spreads just over seven points can be a risky proposition. Carolina is favored with the spread at -7.5, a number that is begging for a Texans backing. But that means backing rookie QB Davis Mills. Mills was intercepted on his first pass but rebounded to an extent, finishing 8-of-18 for 102 yards and a TD vs. the Browns.

But Taylor isn’t the only ailing Texans player. Six players were knocked out of action at Cleveland, and a quick turnaround is exactly what the team didn’t need. Carolina’s defense isn’t going to make life easy for Mills, and there is no Christian McCaffrey to back him up. The Panthers are clicking and have the skillset to roll here. If you’re looking for a Thursday night side as part of your NFL picks, lay the points with the Panthers. You can get Panthers -7.5 (-110) with DraftKings .

Panthers vs. Texans Totals

The Over/Under for Thursday Night Football is 43 points, down from the 44.5-point total at the opening line. It is the second-lowest total in Week 3, as only the Jets vs. Broncos line (41) falls lower.

The reason for the low total makes sense. Carolina’s defense ranks No. 1 in not just points allowed (10.5 ppg) but yards allowed (190 ypg), including a shutdown of a Saints team that put 38 on the Packers the week prior. Houston, for its part, has overachieved, but rookie QB Davis Mills is an unknown commodity. Its offense and defense ranks right in the middle of the NFL, 16th for both sides in yards allowed.

Taylor has been serviceable everywhere he’s been, and underrated as well. Carolina’s defense can’t sustain a top ranking, right? And who’s to say Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers don’t break out? This total seems low, but I’ll be keeping this one off the NFL betting lineup for Week 3.

About the Author

Adam Thompson

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Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.