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Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts Picks, Tips & MNF Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 5 mins

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts Picks, Tips & MNF Predictions

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It’s now or never for the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers as the AFC teams conclude NFL Week 12 on Monday Night Football. 

Matt Ryan’s Colts (4-6-1) and Kenny Pickett’s Steelers (3-7) are far behind in their respective divisional races, but they’re a doable 1.5 and 3.0 games out of the AFC Playoffs picture. With 6-7 games to go, anything is possible, but the wins must start happening now. 

At NFL betting sites, Indianapolis is favored by 2.5 points in the latest Steelers vs. Colts odds. The Over/Under, or total points expected to be scored, is set at a modest 39.5 points. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – on his way to hitting over 60% of his NFL picks for the fourth consecutive season – reveals his picks and props for the big AFC clash. 

Steelers vs. Colts Point Spread Pick

Indianapolis is a better team since Jeff Saturday took over, especially when it comes to Jonathan Taylor and a run offense that’s been a big disappointment. But Taylor has been real solid the last two weeks. Pittsburgh isn’t easy to run on but teams can throw against it, especially if the Steelers need to put resources in to stop the rushing attack. 

Pittsburgh has had three primetime games this season; they’re 0-3, losing by 12, 6, and 7 points. Kenny Pickett’s completion percentage has dropped three straight games and he has one TD. Indy’s defense ranks 11th vs. the run and sixth vs. the pass. Nothing will come easy, especially on the road at night. Lock in the Colts while laying under a field goal if possible as one of this week’s favorite plays. 

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Steelers vs. Colts Over/Under Best Bet

Last week, Pittsburgh’s offense scored a season-high 30 points, but the defense allowed 37, the most since it was pounded 38-3 at Buffalo. Despite legit offensive weapons on both sides, the defenses are what stir these drinks. Indy ranks No. 5 in the NFL in total defense, the Steelers aren’t good vs. the pass but have limited teams to 20 or fewer points in three of the last five games

The Under has hit in four of five Colts home games 

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Steelers vs. Colts Moneyline Pick

The Steelers have won 11 of their last 12 games on Monday Night Football, but most of those games had a future Hall of Fame and Super Bowl-winning QB under center, and a defense that everyone respected. Pittsburgh brings neither of those things to the table in Week 12. 

The Colts, however, do. Well, Matt Ryan should have won a Super Bowl but that’s beside the point. With a better defense, a rushing attack that has bounced back, and another week under the belt with Ryan and Saturday leading the way, Indianapolis -140 is a good bet on MNF

Best Steelers vs. Colts Player Props

Jonathan Taylor, Under 86.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Taylor has found success under new coach Jeff Saturday. In both games he’s rushed 22 times, and gained 147 and 84 yards. Prior to that, he’d averaged 15.4 rushes for 60.2 yards since Week 1. 

But the Steelers run defense has done a total flip with the return of T.J. Watt. The Steelers allowed 29 rush yards to the Saints and 62 to the Bengals. Their pass defense remains a sieve, so Taylor may get more action in the pass game. 

Diontae Johnson, Under 46.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

Johnson has become, at best, a No. 2 option for rookie QB Kenny Pickett, as he’s drawn identical targets over the past two weeks. Only once in the last five weeks has Johnson eclipsed 42 yards. 

It’s hard to imagine a breakout game for Pickett or Johnson against a Colts defense that’s allowing 177.8 pass yards per game since Week 4. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.