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Pittsburgh Steelers At Kansas City Chiefs Picks & Betting Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 8 mins

Pittsburgh Steelers At Kansas City Chiefs Picks & Betting Predictions

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Ben Roethlisberger’s 18-year career with the Pittsburgh Steelers gets at least one more game, but it won’t be easy against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in an NFL Wild Card matchup on Sunday Night Football, postseason edition. The host Chiefs are the No. 2 seed in the AFC, winners of nine of 10. That includes a 36-10 beatdown of these Steelers, who snuck into the playoffs after edging the Ravens in OT in Week 18, then getting help with a Raiders OT win over the Chargers.

Sportsbooks opened with a huge 13-point spread, but had slid and settled to Kansas City -12.5 by Monday at most of the leading betting sites and available betting apps.

Take a look at Chiefs vs Steelers odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Steelers vs. Chiefs Key Matchups

Travis Kelce vs. Steelers LBs: Pittsburgh has allowed just four TDs to tight ends. Kelce has four TDs in his last three games played.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Steelers Defense: Mahomes has destroyed Pittsburgh in two games vs the Steelers, throwing for 584 yards, nine TDs and zero INTs with a completion rate of 79.3%.

Chiefs Other WRs vs. Steelers Secondary: In Week 16 vs. Pittsburgh, Byron Pringle had 75 receiving yards and two TDs (his best game of the season) and Mecole Hardman scored one of his two TDs on the year. The Steelers shut down Tyreek Hill but other wideouts flourished.

5 Key Steelers vs. Chiefs Stats

3.2: Sacks per game by the Steelers defense, the most in the NFL and led by sacks leader T.J. Watt. Chiefs QBs have been sacked the second-fewest amount, just 1.6 per game.

7: Quarterback rushing TDs allowed by the Chiefs this season, the most in the NFL. Big Ben actually does have one rush TD, a one-yarder in a 19-13 win over the Titans.

20: The cutoff for Najee Harris carries and Steelers success this season. Pittsburgh is 6-0-1 when its rookie RB gets over 20 rushes, and 3-7 when he doesn’t. He had 19 carries in the last matchup, a Chiefs win.

38.8: Yards per game average for Tyreek Hill against the Steelers in four career games. Only once has he gone over 35 yards.

2,054: Rushing yards allowed by the Steelers. Only the hapless Texans allowed more (and it was only 14 more).

RELATED: NFL Playoff Prop Bets: Most Passing, Rushing & Receiving Over Postseason

Steelers vs. Chiefs Weather Forecast

Nothing will be falling from the sky on Sunday night in Kansas City. It won’t be all that warm, with temperatures likely in the low 30s for kickoff, but that’s seasonal for this area. It won’t bother those coming from Pittsburgh, where it’s a little chillier.

Steelers vs Chiefs Player Props

Ben Roethlisberger, Over 24.5 Completions

Odds: -115 at DraftKings ➜

Big Ben can’t toss it downfield like he used to, but he’s been slinging it 40-plus times per game and dinking it five yards, adding to lots of completions. He was 23-of-35 for 159 yards vs. KC a few weeks ago and 24-of-46 and 30-of-44 in the last two games, both huge wins.

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Patrick Mahomes, Under 278.5 Pass Yards

Odds: -114 at FanDuel ➜

In the Chiefs’ last 11 games, Mahomes has gone over this total just two times – each instance he went off for 400-plus. Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t allowed 278 in a game in seven weeks, and has kept opponents to under 220 in six of them.

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Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Najee Harris, Over 50 Rush Yards Each

Odds: +120 at FOX Bet ➜

Edwards-Helaire hasn’t had over 37 yards in three straight games but faces a bottom-ranked run defense of the Steelers. Pittsburgh needs to feed Harris; he had 93 yards in the first meeting.

Steelers vs. Chiefs Moneyline

The host Chiefs are -650 on the moneyline, meaning a $650 wager would win $100 in profit. On the other side, the Steelers are at +460 ($100 wins $460 in profit).

No thanks to either side. As plucky as the Steelers have been to slide into the playoffs, beating the Chiefs at Arrowhead, no matter which way the numbers are crunched, doesn’t seem likely. Pittsburgh has strengths it can use to stay in the game, but not enough to back it on the moneyline. KC’s price is too high.

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Steelers vs. Chiefs Point Spread

When it comes to NFL spreads, the Chiefs are -12.5 here. It’s the fourth time Kansas City has been a double-digit favorite. It won all three previous games, but covered just once (vs. these Steelers).

While winning is a tall task, the Steelers have the matchups to compete. Their ninth-ranked pass defense goes against the Chiefs’ No. 4 pass offense, while Pittsburgh's pass O (15th) is in a good spot vs. KC’s pass D (25th). Roethlisberger was 5-2 vs. KC before three weeks ago, and both losses were by five points or less. Those looking for a Sunday night side as part of your NFL picks should consider the Steelers, especially if you can get the spread to +13 or higher.

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Steelers vs. Chiefs Totals

The Over/Under for Sunday Night Football is 46 points, down a half-point since opening at 46.5. To be sure, it’s the defenses that have led the charge to postseason contender status for each side. That said, most Steelers games haven’t come close to that total lately.

Three of the last four games have finished at 40 or fewer points. The lone exception was the 46-pointer against these Chiefs. That game was 30-0 early in the third quarter. Chiefs games, however, almost always hit that mark. The last five games have gone well over, averaging 56.4 ppg with a once-dominant defense now back to its usual points-allowing ways. The Over looks like the better side for your NFL betting Wild Card Sunday ticket.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been estabilshed as one of the nation's premier NFL and MLB handicappers, and his horse racing and PGA picks have produced major winners over the last 12 months.
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