5 Super Bowl 2021 Value Bets & Best Odds You Should Back
There won’t be any preseason games, but the 2020 NFL season is on. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs begin defense of their Super Bowl championship on Sept. 10 when they play host to J.J. Watt and the Houston Texans.
The Chiefs are the favorite of sportsbooks to win Super Bowl 55 in Tampa, posting as low as +600. The Baltimore Ravens (+700) and San Francisco 49ers (+900) are close behind in NFL futures odds.
CHECK OUT & COMPARE: The Latest Super Bowl 55 odds
But those prices don’t offer a lot of value in August. There are legit contenders, plus a few darkhorses, worth considering at this early stage.
Here are five value picks for Super Bowl 55.
|New Orleans Saints||+1300 (Caesars)|
|Dallas Cowboys||+1600 (DraftKings)|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||+3000 (BetMGM)|
|Green Bay Packers||+3500 (BetMGM)|
|Denver Broncos||+5000 (FOX Bet)|
NFL odds are current as of publication.
New Orleans Saints +1300
The Buccaneers made the offseason headlines by adding Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, but the Saints remain the team to beat in the NFC South — and, one could argue, the NFC overall. We know Drew Brees and Michael Thomas are going to anchor one of the premier passing attacks in the game, but it might even be better this year with Emmanuel Sanders coming in as the No. 2. Alvin Kamara is a top weapon out of the backfield.
But the Saints defense should be a top-10 unit as well, especially against the pass, boosted by the addition of safety Malcolm Jenkins.
While the AFC has two elite contenders and a handful of sizeable underdogs, the NFC is stacked with legit Super Bowl wannabes. The Saints and 49ers lead the list, but for now New Orleans presents considerably more value on the Super Bowl futures market. Get the Saints for great odds at Caesars.
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Dallas Cowboys +1600
Last season the Cowboys finished in the top 10 in total offense and top 10 in total defense — and missed the playoffs with an 8-8 record. Head coach Jason Garrett was finally given his walking papers, replaced by Mike McCarthy, who has a Super Bowl win with Green Bay on his resume. Most of the key players return for him, and the coaching shakeup should be enough to put Big D back in the mix.
The Cowboys haven’t even been to the NFC Championship Game since 1995. This roster suggests the drought could end. Ezekiel Elliott will be a beast for McCarthy’s run-to-set-up-the-pass game plan, and the weapons in the passing game are top-shelf, as the team was able to franchise Dak Prescott and re-sign Amari Cooper to a $100 million deal.
On the other side of the ball, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix makes Dallas’ biggest weakness (pass defense) a little better. The Cowboys and Buccaneers have hovered around the same odds this summer, but Dallas is in better position to claim a higher seed — which could loom large in January. Lock in the Cowboys for the best odds at DraftKings.
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Pittsburgh Steelers +3000
The Steelers went 8-8 last season despite scoring fewer points than the Dolphins. A Week 2 elbow injury sidelined Ben Roethlisberger for the year. His replacements were a disaster. The team’s 76.1 QB rating ranked 31st, in front of only the Panthers.
But Roethlisberger is back for what might be his swan song. Big Ben, James Conner and JuJu Smith-Shuster likely won’t be one of the Big 3s of the NFL this year, but might not have to be.
That’s because the Steelers defense might be the top unit in the league. Pittsburgh has talent and depth at every level, especially linebacker with T.J. Watt, Devin Bush and edge rusher Bud Dupree. Last year the Steelers ranked fifth in yards allowed and third in points allowed while leading the NFL in turnovers. This year they could be just as good, and the offense should hold up its end of the bargain much more often than last year. Find the Steelers for the highest odds at BetMGM.
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Green Bay Packers +3500
The Packers went 13-3 but statistically didn’t compare with the 49ers, Saints and Chiefs. Green Bay made NFL Draft headlines by trading up to get Aaron Rodgers’ successor instead of immediate help for a Super Bowl push.
The supporting cast around WR Davante Adams has potential breakout stars, and the run game must be accounted for. The Packers should have one of the top run/pass O-lines in the NFL.
The pass defense last year was a concern, but one year older and wiser for a defensive backfield that was filled with young players (their best CB was a rookie) should do it some good. The Packers may be in some high-scoring games, and they have playmakers at each level of the defense. Find the Packers for top odds over at BetMGM.
Denver Broncos +5000
Drew Lock is a work in progress at QB as he begins his second pro season and first as a full-time starter. Denver’s front office brought in weapons to help, including using its first-round draft pick on WR Jerry Jeudy and signing RB Melvin Gordon to join a stacked backfield.
If Lock can limit turnovers and move the ball, the Broncos’ defense can do the rest. LBs Von Miller and Bradley Chubb can get anywhere, and the team added Pro Bowl CB A.J. Bouye and Pro Bowl DL Jurrell Casey via trade and was still able to re-sign run stuffer Mike Purcell.
Denver spent the offseason like a team in it to win it. If Lock can do his part, the other pieces are in place to make a run. The Broncos are still a steal on the Super Bowl futures page. Lock in the Broncos at their highest odds over at FOX Bet.
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About the Author
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He has consistently produced profitable seasons in NFL and college football and established himself as an elite MLB expert in 2018, hitting 61 percent of his money line picks for a profit of $4,062 to $100 players, ending the season on a 22-4 run including 100 percent on World Series games. Previously the award-winning sports editor of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, Adam spent nearly 20 years covering the NFL, MLB and college football. Now he shares the insight he gained at Bookies.com through well-reasoned picks and thought-provoking articles and on Twitter at @_Adam_Thompson_.