Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Predictions, Best Bets & Picks

By Adam Thompson Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EST

The playoffs begin one week early for the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars, as the teams face off with the AFC South title on the line in a Saturday night primetime showdown.

The winner between Derrick Henry’s Titans (7-9) and Trevor Lawrence’s Jaguars (8-8) receives the automatic postseason berth for winning the division. The season is likely over for the loser (the Jags have a very slim 6% to 8% chance of clinching a wild card if they lose to Tennessee but results go their way on Sunday).

The Jaguars are home for this one and are on a four-game win streak, a run that began with a 36-22 win at Tennessee. Jacksonville is favored by six points on NFL betting sites in the latest Titans vs. Jaguars odds, with an Over/Under set at 40 points.

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on over 62% of his NFL picks in each of the last three years – reveals his best plays for the win-or-go-home clash.

Titans vs. Jaguars Point Spread Prediction

Two teams heading on different trajectories. The Titans have lost six in a row. Fans wanting Ryan Tannehill out have now seen how valuable he is compared to the alternatives. Henry is a beast but the Jags can put eight in the box with Joshua Dobbs under center.

Jacksonville has won four straight, scoring 31-plus in three of those games. While Jacksonville is strong vs. the run, Tennessee has the NFL’s bottom-ranked pass defense. It’s Jacksonville’s time. Lay the points on the home favorite on sports betting apps.

Titans vs. Jaguars Over/Under Best Bet

The total of 40 points is 1.5 points lower than the last time these teams faced off, a game that totaled 58. The Under has cashed in three straight Titans games and in two Jags games in a row. Tennessee’s offense without Tannehill has scored 17, 17, 14 and 13 points.

Can the Jaguars put up enough to get to the Over? Against this defense, absolutely. The Over is a secondary play consideration.

Titans vs. Jaguars Moneyline Prediction

The Jaguars are -255 on the moneyline, so it would take a $255 wager on Jacksonville to win $100 in profit on sports betting sites. The Titans are +215.

We like Jacksonville to cover the six-point spread, but they also have home losses to the Broncos, Giants and Texans. Those were in the first half of the season, but this is a young team and Henry is coming at them. All of Jacksonville's four wins during this run have been by six-plus and averaged 16 ppg. We’ll stay on the spread.

Best Titans vs. Jaguars Player Props

Trevor Lawrence, Over 255.5 Pass yards

Odds: -115 at BetMGM

The emerging Lawrence carved up the Tennessee last-ranked pass defense for 368 yards in a 36-22 win just a few weeks ago. Don’t expect much different here, now at home with a playoff berth on the line. The Titans have allowed more pass yards than any team and at least 266 yards in five of the last six games. Jacksonville is 7-4 when Lawrence goes over 180 pass yards.

Derrick Henry, Over 90.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Henry has gained 121, 104 and 126 yards in the last three games despite no semblance of a Titans pass attack to take the pressure off. In 12 career games vs. the Jaguars he’s averaged 105.3 ypg. Tennessee is undefeated (4-0) when Henry gets 25 carries. The team’s best shot is to hammer all night long.

About the Author

Adam Thompson

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Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.