The Colts return home Sunday after losing a heartbreaker in OT to the Ravens. Carson Wentz was effective, and the Colts were victim – once again – to self-inflicted wounds. From red zone turnovers to missed kicks, the Colts had it all. There’s value in coming off a loss like that as we see it in NFL spreads the following week.

Houston saw New England march back and hand the Texans a home loss last weekend. The team is in utter disarray despite having the lead for a large portion of the game.

The injuries to the offensive line are key factors in NFL betting as is the case here. Most sportsbooks wont factor in OL injuries with spreads, so we have to apply the data, like with the Colts down multiple players up front.

Both teams are 1-4 on the year but there’s a difference in play found on the field. Carson Wentz is night and day better than Davis Mills, as is Jonathan Taylor to Mark Ingram. The Colts have a better defense, but not by a wide margin. It’s come down to injuries and a tougher schedule for Indy, as opposed to not being talented enough to win games, like with the Texans.

The line dropped already as Indy is now a 9-point home favorite against Houston. The Colts are a -410 ML play where the Texans are a heavy dog at +350. The total for this game is only 42.5 points.

Take a look at Texans vs Colts odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Texans vs Colts Key Matchups

Texans Pass Rush vs Carson Wentz: The Colts QB has thrown just one – yes, one – interception all season despite his team only winning one game. Wentz did fumble in the red zone in Baltimore, so Houston will have to pressure up front and buy time in the back.

Colts vs. Health: The Indy secondary could be without three starters due to injury. Parris Campbell comes off multiple season highs but hurt his knee. There’s also the OL down at least two starters coming into this game. Not ideal against any division rival.

HOU secondary vs IND WR: This is another key factor when making NFL picks as we have a matchup here with one clear winner – at least on paper. The Colts have been making the most of injuries at the WR position, but the Texans quietly have one of the better DB groups in the league.

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Texans vs Colts Key Stats

29th: It’s this bad for Houston’s offense. This is their overall ranking in total yards per game. What makes matters worse, they are 28th in the league with 79.8 rushing YPG and 29th in passing with 217 passing YPG. Just brutal.

14th: The Colts are better than league average against the run and should be able to take it away entirely from the Texans.

3-2: Both teams’ record ATS this season. There isn’t a clear advantage here like we want to see in divisional games.

6-4: The combined O/U record for both teams this year as the Colts and Texans are each above .500 to the Over (3-2).

1: Just one team – and they aren’t playing in this one – has a winning record in the AFC South. The division is as bad as advertised which could lend to a high-scoring blowout in this game.

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Texans vs Colts Player Props

Carson Wentz, Over 233.5 Passing Yards

Odds: -110 at DraftKings

Wentz comes off a ridiculous performance against the Ravens but is throwing to an offense that’s starting to figure out the short passing game. Trust the volume here.

Jonathan Taylor Over 98.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards

Odds: -110 at DraftKings

There’s a good chance Taylor goes over this with rushing yards alone, but you are covered with a big night either way.

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Brandin Cooks Over 24.5 Longest Reception

Odds: -110 at DraftKings

He’s going to be thrown to more than anyone in this game, there’s a great chance he goes over this with at least one catch.

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Texans vs Colts Moneyline

As we see with all betting sites available on Bookies.com, the general consensus is a Colts beatdown. It’s easy to believe because of how bad Houston looked for the majority of the first month of the year, but it's tempting to throw a half-unit on the Texans ML.

It’s a huge number that’s not worth the risk for the Colts. You would be laying north of 4:1 on a team that’s 1-4. It’s dangerous even in a parlay. Either jump in the deep end and throw a half-unit on Houston or simply stay away.

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Texans vs Colts Point Spread

The line moved below a key number in 10 to favor Indy. When you add up all the injuries to an already bad football team, it’s hard to think the Colts blast the Texans into oblivion. Granted Davis Mills isn’t Lamar Jackson, but the Colts defense took some hits – both physically and emotionally – with that grueling loss last week.

The Texans at 9 or higher seems like a smart play, so long as the Texans play a little smarter with the football. Take all the points, HOU +9. You can get the Texans +9 (-110) at DraftKings.

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Texans vs Colts Points Total

We’ve seen both teams with a 3-2 record to the Over so far this year. A lot of that is reflected on getting lower numbers to go over, as opposed to a high-flying offensive attack.

The Texans offense seems non-existent but remember injuries to the Colts secondary. Indy is only 1-4 but remember Wentz doesn’t throw picks. Both teams combined can easily hit the mid-40s. You can get Over 43 (-110) at BetMGM.

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